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Good morning and God bless! Time to focus on the #NextPlay.
In our 10/29 Around the Horn, we discussed how max pain for us bears was likely to be ~4100 on the $SPX. The path getting here (2 big days of 0DTE call-induced gamma squeezes) has been weird, but we are here. What now?
In our 10/29 Around the Horn, we discussed how max pain for us bears was likely to be ~4100 on the $SPX. The path getting here (2 big days of 0DTE call-induced gamma squeezes) has been weird, but we are here. What now?
The answer to “What now?” has 3 components:
1. Will the $SPX squeeze past its 200DMA, forcing capitulation by a net short investor consensus?
2. Will CPI behave?
3. Will Powell have to backtrack regardless, given that he catalyzed a sharp move higher in inflation expectations?
1. Will the $SPX squeeze past its 200DMA, forcing capitulation by a net short investor consensus?
2. Will CPI behave?
3. Will Powell have to backtrack regardless, given that he catalyzed a sharp move higher in inflation expectations?
All I know is that I’m happy it’s December, because November was not a good month for me.
As a someone who studies POSITIONING like a hawk, I know November was a sh!tty month for nearly everyone — I’m just one of the few that is open and honest about EVERY trade I make in my PA.
As a someone who studies POSITIONING like a hawk, I know November was a sh!tty month for nearly everyone — I’m just one of the few that is open and honest about EVERY trade I make in my PA.
Good morning and God bless! Time to focus on the #NextPlay.
All roads in the Defi space leading to #Bitcoin as collateral, as contagion spreads to Genesis who suspended withdrawals y’day w/o even taking questions from customers. The #Crypto industry grows shadier by the day. 1/
All roads in the Defi space leading to #Bitcoin as collateral, as contagion spreads to Genesis who suspended withdrawals y’day w/o even taking questions from customers. The #Crypto industry grows shadier by the day. 1/
I know that #Bitcoin view is not especially popular, but I don’t see how they get around the fact that the only “safer” form of collateral is USD fiat — Defi’s arch nemesis.
Watching a bunch of way-too-overcapitalized kids make all the same mistakes as Tradfi is hilarious. 2/
Watching a bunch of way-too-overcapitalized kids make all the same mistakes as Tradfi is hilarious. 2/
In my latest spot on @APompliano’s podcast (which airs today) I spoke about how the near $3.5 TRILLION dollar expansion of @42macro Net Liquidity in the 21-months through Nov-21 made pretend geniuses out of a lot of kids that would have otherwise just been analysts at iBanks. 3/
Good morning and God bless! Time to focus on the #NextPlay.
The @cz_binance-@SBF_FTX drama teaches our #Crypto friends three lessons:
1. Decentralization is a self-serving illusion
2. Macro > Micro when Macro is bad
3. USD liquidity trumps all until $ is not the reserve currency
The @cz_binance-@SBF_FTX drama teaches our #Crypto friends three lessons:
1. Decentralization is a self-serving illusion
2. Macro > Micro when Macro is bad
3. USD liquidity trumps all until $ is not the reserve currency
I spent dinner discussing the #FTX saga with my fiancé who knows as much about how global financial markets work as the average #Crypto bro. My explanation to her (and them) is as follows:
1. We live in a world where the price of every key asset in the world is in US dollars
2/
1. We live in a world where the price of every key asset in the world is in US dollars
2/
2. As a function of #1, we are all hyper obsessed with how many US dollars are available to price all the existing and future assets in the system
3. As a function of #2, we are also hyper obsessed with how fast that [unobservable] quantity of dollars is growing or shrinking
3/
3. As a function of #2, we are also hyper obsessed with how fast that [unobservable] quantity of dollars is growing or shrinking
3/
