Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #NoDemand
Most recents (5)
1/ Many bulls were surprised about the relatively low # of Teslas delivered in Q3 in Europe🇪🇺
I believe most all shipped have been delivered, and the # wasn't low at all.
$TSLA $TSLAQ
I believe most all shipped have been delivered, and the # wasn't low at all.
$TSLA $TSLAQ
2/ However, it's always a question how many unfilled orders have slipped to Q4. According to my *channel checks*, there have been a few from even early Q3 slipping into Q4, especially M3LR. We can say that Q3 demand was strong.
3/ But Q4 orders have been slow so far. Maybe the ~€2k price hike was too much for many. If you order a car today, you'll likely get it in November.
1/ #Tesla bulls are cheering the 10th Chinese price cut this year, celebrating the "passing on cost savings to customers". Let's assume it's Musk's good heart the reason for the cuts, not #nodemand at current price levels*.
$TSLA $TSLAQ
$TSLA $TSLAQ
2/ Price cuts >> total battery costs.
Now imagine for a second how utterly inefficient production must have been if there could be such cost savings.
cleantechnica.com/2020/08/21/elo…
Now imagine for a second how utterly inefficient production must have been if there could be such cost savings.
cleantechnica.com/2020/08/21/elo…
4/ Now imagine if
a) price cuts are bigger than "efficiency gains", eating into the eterna 23% gross margin. If only 3% of the price cut eats into this, that's a 13% GM reduction.
b) relative margins stay at the eternal 23%, what do absolute margins do?
a) price cuts are bigger than "efficiency gains", eating into the eterna 23% gross margin. If only 3% of the price cut eats into this, that's a 13% GM reduction.
b) relative margins stay at the eternal 23%, what do absolute margins do?
🚨Only 12 ships from Fremont this Q vs 16 in Q4 (6 to Europe🇪🇺 this time vs 8 in 19Q4 and 7 in 19Q3).
Either the US🇺🇸 is booming, or... there are no supply constraints anywhere (but, theoretically, China)!
If deliveries ex-China this Q are <19Q4 then is in trouble
Either the US🇺🇸 is booming, or... there are no supply constraints anywhere (but, theoretically, China)!
If deliveries ex-China this Q are <19Q4 then is in trouble
Meanwhile, production capacity has increased (apart from the usual "ramp", a new line and the Big Stamp came online), so I would consider anything below 19Q4 + 20% ex-China to be a sign of #nodemand.
We'll know 🇨🇳production numbers. It will be easy to deduct from reported totals
We'll know 🇨🇳production numbers. It will be easy to deduct from reported totals
Prediction: no "analyst" but @GordonJohnson19/@GLJ_Research, Ryan Brinkman/@jpmorgan and Brian Johnson/@Barclays, and maybe Itay Michaeli/@Citi and Toni Sacconagghi/Bernstein will seem to understand this overly complicated math.
1/ Why did Sasha Zahnd, European🇪🇺 sales head of $TSLA quit #Tesla, after less than half a year? His predecessor, Jan Oehmicke (telling name!) fared twice as better: he quit after a full year
Word is that both top managers had disagreements with Musk. What could that be?
$TSLAQ
Word is that both top managers had disagreements with Musk. What could that be?
$TSLAQ
2/ Of course, we don't know. But we can guess.
Tesla has sent 7 ships to Europe in Q1, after 8 in 19Q4. Despite all those cars available, #Tesla has only delivered less 2/3 of the cars in Q1 compared to Q4. If my math serves me right, 2/3 << 7/8.
Tesla has sent 7 ships to Europe in Q1, after 8 in 19Q4. Despite all those cars available, #Tesla has only delivered less 2/3 of the cars in Q1 compared to Q4. If my math serves me right, 2/3 << 7/8.
3/ Why so few in Q1 if cars were available, and demand is still through the roof, justifying the sky-high market cap? Well, blame scapeCovid. It worked: the market gave Tesla a pass for Q1.
#FraudWatch day 416
#BABYcharts is resurrecting a #DumDum classic, so I’m bringing back a classic of my own. 🥂
🥴🤡 🤡🥴
#BABYcharts is resurrecting a #DumDum classic, so I’m bringing back a classic of my own. 🥂
🥴🤡 🤡🥴
#FraudWatch day 417
#BABYcharts doing his best to suck up to Larry the Fossi guy today. What happened to “Q1 will be 150k minimum” #DumDums? 😢
🥴🤡 🤡🥴
#BABYcharts doing his best to suck up to Larry the Fossi guy today. What happened to “Q1 will be 150k minimum” #DumDums? 😢
🥴🤡 🤡🥴
#FraudWatch day 418
#BABYcharts with another “It’s all Elon’s fault” #DumDum classic.
Watching the #DumDums spike the ball hard on the interaction with LAX Airport and Elon was epic when they replied they found the shipment. 😂
🥴🤡 🤡🥴
#BABYcharts with another “It’s all Elon’s fault” #DumDum classic.
Watching the #DumDums spike the ball hard on the interaction with LAX Airport and Elon was epic when they replied they found the shipment. 😂
🥴🤡 🤡🥴
