Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #NoFreeLunch

Most recents (4)

1/12. I've tweeted a # of times on grain markets in recent wks: to me, they show case a fascinating battle between input prices (farm costs) & output prices (farm revenue). Farm return forecasts just out from University of Illinois illustrate this dance.

farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2022/08/2023-c…
2/12. You can see that the farm sector got to party like everyone else through to this year. But things are going to get a bit more sticky next year. Basically, costs are forecast to go 'to the moon' but prices aren't.
3/12. The detailed table below gives you an idea of where the damage is being done. Taking 2023 over the bumper profit year of 2021, fertilizer is projected to be up 77%, pesticide 37%, fuel 57%. Overheads, which include labor, are slated to be up 18%.
Read 13 tweets
Doing a thread on these Korean Structured Products
And the unintended market effects of these ... cases where tail wags the dog.

First do listen to the excellent podcast (#OddLots is the best Fin Markets podcast by @TheStalwart & @tracyalloway here they speak to @bennpeifert)
@TheStalwart @tracyalloway @bennpeifert So the main point is the rising amount of savings in East Asia (Korea, Japan) which leads to investments in Structured Products. (They had a similar podcast with @Brad_Setser on Taiwanese Lifers - though more focussed on USDTWD hedging)
...
@TheStalwart @tracyalloway @bennpeifert @Brad_Setser Bottom line is - East Asia has a large pool of savings, and needs to be invested some where.

Bonds provide a very low return (global QE pushed down yields), and stocks have too much market risk & volatility.

Enter #StructuredProducts = Bond like coupons, but Stock type returns
Read 19 tweets
#CorporationTax #AltSarkar's view and commentary.
First the good news: FM @nsitharaman’s corporate tax cut is a clear sign that #ModiSarkar is worried about the state of the #Indian #Economy. That’s good because it means she acknowledges the scale of the #budget2019 cock-up.
Now the bad news: a day earlier, @RBI Governor, @DasShaktikanta, said that the Government’s fiscal space is limited. This means: don't cut taxes, don't spend more than budgeted. He also said, spend resources 'fruitfully' i.e. to get the 'most bang for your buck'.
And now the even worse news: this 1.5 Lakh Crore tax giveaway is neither necessary nor sufficient, in and of itself, to solve the problem that spurred it - the slump in economic growth. Like antibiotics that neither help a common cold, nor make the body stronger. Here's why
Read 16 tweets

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