Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #NowCast

Most recents (18)

#SARSCoV2 Weekly #VariantDesignation Breakdown

This past week there have been 20 designations

- 2 new aliases
- Most are within the 5, 9, 16, and 22 branches of XBB.1.* ImageImage
Read 5 tweets
#SARSCoV2 #VariantProportions - #USA |04/21/23

New @CDCgov #Nowcast estimates:

Top circulating lineages:

XBB.1.5 (73.6%)⬇️
XBB.1.16 (9.6%) ⬆️
XBB.1.9.1 (7.9%)
XBB.1.9.2 (2.9%)
XBB.1.5.1 (2.2%)
FD.2 (1.6%)
XBB (1%)

covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…

1/n Image
Over all trends are consistent with #15DayTrends (based on sequences uploaded in the public databases)

XBB.1.5 is still at the top; followed by XBB.1.16 & XBB.1.9.1

Expect XBB.2.3 to feature in the @CDCgov dashboard soon!



2/n
XBB.1.16* hotspots per CDC #Nowcast

>5% spread in almost all regions

Region 6 estimate reads 14.4% (looks more reasonable than the previous week's estimate of 21.3% spread which looked suspect; )

3/n Image
Read 4 tweets
#SARSCoV2 #VariantProportions - #USA |04/14/23

New @CDCgov #Nowcast estimates:

>> XBB.1.16, XBB.1.9.2 and FD.2 make an entry! <<

Top circulating lineages:
XBB.1.5 (78%)
XBB.1.16 (7.2%)
XBB.1.9.1 (6.5%)
XBB.1.9.2 (2.5%)
--
FD.2 (1.7%)

covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
1/n Image
Over all trends are consistent with #15DayTrends (based on sequences uploaded in the public databases)

XBB.1.5 is still at the top; followed by XBB.1.16 & XBB.1.9.1

As expected XBB.1.16, XBB.1.5.15* (FD.2) featured in the CDC nowcast today!



2/n
XBB.1.16* hotspots per CDC #Nowcast

As expected, hotspots are in regions 2, 3, 4, 9, 10

>> Region 6 estimate looks suspect! <<

3/n Image
Read 6 tweets
#SARSCoV2 #VariantProportions - #USA |03/24/23

New @CDCgov #Nowcast estimates

XBB.1.9.1 (#Hyperion) makes an entry

Top circulating lineages:

XBB.1.5 (90.2%)
XBB.1.9.1 (2.5%)
BQ.1.1 (2.5%)
XBB.1.5.1 (2.4%)
XBB (1.2%)
CH.1.1 (0.4%)

covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…

1/n Image
A closer look at nowcast estimates (modeled projections)

2/n Image
Over all trends are consistent with #15DayTrends (based on sequences uploaded in the public databases)

XBB.1.5 is still at the top; XBB.1.9.1 makes an entry

Expected XBB.1.5.13 and XBB.1.16 to feature in the CDC dashboard variant line up today..



3/n
Read 8 tweets
#SARSCoV2 #VariantProportions - #USA |03/17/23

New @CDCgov #Nowcast estimates

Top circulating lineages:

XBB.1.5 (90.2%)
BQ.1.1 (3.5%)⬇️
XBB (2.5%)
XBB.1.5.1 (2.2%)
BQ.1 (0.7%)⬇️
CH.1.1 (0.5%)

covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…

1/n Image
A closer look at nowcast estimates (modeled projections)

2/n Image
Over all trends are consistent with #15DayTrends (based on sequences uploaded in the public databases)

XBB.1.5 is still the dominant lineage

Expected XBB.1.9.1 and XBB.1.5.13 to feature in the CDC dashboard variant line up today..



3/n
Read 6 tweets
Glad to see @WHO cares and will continue its #VariantTracking efforts!

These decisions generate a domino-type effect often ending up impacting the funds allocated for robust global surveillance efforts

#VariantTrackers have their task cut out...
Important resources to keep you updated with what's happening in the variant world

1. Cov-Spectrum Collection 24 for effective tracking- cov-spectrum.org/collections/24 (@siamosolocani @Asinickle1 @wolfeagle1989)
2. Nick names for effective communication- whn.global/common-names-f… (@TRyanGregory )
Read 7 tweets
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰

Macro Review 🧵
01/15/2023

1/11

Core #CPI running at +3.1% SAAR confirmed #Goldilocks for Q422 and catalyzed a 🚀 in equities, metals, and hydrocarbons

#Core CPI - 3-month SAAR
Dec - 3.1%
Nov - 4.2%
Oct - 5.7%

Chart: #CoreCPI 5.7% 🔻
1a/11

Despite all the recession talk - including my own, the @AtlantaFed #NowCast is projecting Q4 growth of +4.1%, an acceleration.

Growth 🔺 + Inflation 🔻 = #Quad1 #Goldilocks

Chart:
2/11

While #Quad1 #Goldilocks may be good for risk assets, it’s decidedly poor for the $USD, which continued ↘️ and took out the 50% retracement level of 102.12

Chart: $USD -1.64% (w) -9.94% 3M = T = Trend
Read 21 tweets
#SARSCoV2 #VariantProportions - #USA |01/06/23

Interesting tug of war between BQ.1.1 vs XBB.1.5

As expected new @CDCgov #Nowcast estimates
BQ.1.1 (34.4%) > XBB.1.5* (27.6%)

covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…

1/n
Use the "nowcast off" button in the CDC Variant Proportions dashboard to get a clear picture of the variant spread

covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…

3/n
Read 7 tweets
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰

My Q12023 outlook reflects the massive forces current under way 🧵

1> Fed, Treasury, and big market players (reverse repo) who are draining liquidity from the markets will make for a messy start for risk assets to start the new year.

This coincides with 🥐🪟 of weakness into Jan 10.

2> Cheap Russian oil (less than $60/B) is being directed to our most important manufacturing ‘partners' (China and India).

Because they are well supplied, goods inflation is unlikely to rise in the hear term.

wsj.com/articles/russi…
Read 7 tweets
#SARSCoV2 #VariantProportions - #USA |12/30/22

Top lineages (per @CDCgov #Nowcast estimates):

40.5% XBB.1.5🚀🚀🚀👀
26.9% BQ.1.1⬇️
18.3% BQ.1⬇️
3.7% BA.5⬇️
3.6% XBB
2.4% BN.1
2.1% BF.7
0.9% BA.2.75
and others

covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…

1/n
BQ.1, BQ.1.1 hotspots per nowcast estimates

3/n
Read 6 tweets
#SARSCoV2 #VariantProportions - #USA |12/23/22

Top lineages (per @CDCgov #Nowcast estimates):

35.7% BQ.1.1
27.4% BQ.1
18.3% XBB⬆️👀
6.9% BA.5
3.9% BF.7
3.8% BN.1
1.1% BA.5.2.6
1.0% BA.2.75
and others

covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…

1/n Image
BQ.1, BQ.1.1 hotspots per nowcast estimates

3/n Image
Read 7 tweets
#SARSCoV2 #VariantProportions - #USA |10/21/22

@CDCgov #Nowcast estimates

BA.5*: 62.2%
BA.4.6: 11.3%
BQ.1*: 9.4%
BQ.1.1*: 7.2%
BF.7*: 6.7%
BA.2.75.2*: 1.3%

Does not include recombinant lineage XBB yet

covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
Read 4 tweets
CDC #NOWCAST #VariantProportions Predictions
- #USA (updated on 10/07/22)

79.2% BA.5*
13.6% BA.4.6* ⬆️
4.6% BF.7*
1.8% BA.2.75* 👀
0.8% BA.4

Get #Boosted and #MaskUp

Source: covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…

@CDCgov Image
Consistent with #COVID19 #VariantDashboard - #15DayTrends

Top circulating lineages (#15DayTrends)

80% BA.5*
12% BA.4.6*
2% BF.7*
1.5% BA.4*
1.3% BA.2.75*
1.1% BQ.1*
0.9% BQ.1.1*
0.3% BA.2.3.30*
0.1% XBB*

CDC Nowcast Estimates – Regions 1-4 & 7 are BA.4.6* Hotspots Image
Read 4 tweets
CDC #NOWCAST Variant Proportions Predictions
- #USA (updated on 09/13/22)

87.5% BA.5* (S:L452R/F486V; M:D3N) ↔️
9.2% BA.4.6 (S:R346T)
2.2% BA.4 (S:L452R/F486V; N:P151S)
1% BA.2*
0.1% BA.2.12.1* (S:L452Q)⬇️

Get #Boosted and #MaskUp

Source: covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…

@CDCgov
CDC nowcast predicts HHS Region 7 as a BA.4.6 lineage (dark blue color) hotspot
Read 4 tweets
CDC #NOWCAST Variant Proportions Predictions
- #USA (6/25/22)

42% BA.2.12.1 (S:L452Q)⬇️
36.6% BA.5 (S:L452R/F486V) ⬆️ 👀
15.7% BA.4 (S:L452R/F486V)⬆️
5.7% BA.2⬇️

Get #Boosted and #MaskUp

Source: covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra

@CDCgov ImageImage
Variant Proportions - a closer look at the top circulating lineages in USA and HHS regions 1-10

BA.2.12.1 has peaked in all the HHS regions reporting

BA.2 has been outcompeted

BA.5 is surging in all HHS regions Image
Read 4 tweets
CDC #NOWCAST Variant Proportions Predictions
- #USA (6/7/22)

62.2% BA.2.12.1 (S:L452Q)
24.8% BA.2
7.6% BA.5 (S:L452R/F486V)<<<
5.4% BA.4 (S:L452R/F486V) <<<

Get Boosted and #MaskUp

Source: covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra… @CDCgov
Region 8 is a BA.4 Hotspot

~13.1% BA.4 in circulation in region comprising of #Colorado, #Montana, #Utah, #NorthDakota, #SouthDakota, #Wyoming
BA.4 hotspots by HHS Region - USA
Read 5 tweets
El @INEGI_INFORMA presentó su Indicador Oportuno de la Actividad Económica #IOAE con estimaciones "en tiempo real" o #nowcast del Indicador Global de la Actividad Económica #IGAE para los meses de febrero y marzo 2022.
1/4
En términos mensuales, el #IOAE anticipa que el #IGAE hilará 5 alzas consecutivas a partir de noviembre 2021, avanzando 0.2% m/m y 0.8% en febrero y marzo 2022, respectivamente, con rangos de [-0.8%, 1.3%] y [-1%, 2.7%].
2/4
En términos anuales, el #IOAE anticipa que el #IGAE habría crecido 2.8% a/a en febrero 2022 y 0.4% en marzo.
3/4
Read 4 tweets
Sessão 2 da comparação entre dado disponível, dado consolidado, e #nowcast / #bakcfill do #InfoGripe para os dados de #SRAG no Brasil.
O foco agora é a tendência em si, já que na 1a olhamos impacto na intensidade.
#COVID19 #FIOCRUZ #MAVE
Sessão 1, aqui:
O foco aki é TENDÊNCIA. I.e., como o atraso afeta a capacidade de avaliar se a curva de novos casos está subindo/estabilizando/caindo?
Notem q, além de observarmos sempre um número muito < de casos, o atraso tbm faz c q, em geral, indique queda mesmo qnd ainda está em ascensão.
Notem tbm q a "estimativa pontual" (mediana da estimativa, linha tracejada) para a própria semana nem sempre acerta "na mosca". Mas o intervalo de confiança (IC), em geral, captura bem e, + importante, a média móvel de 3 semanas da estimativa pontual em geral acerta a tendência.
Read 5 tweets

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