Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #OH01
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So, here's how redistricting and, in some cases, gerrymandering, helped the Republicans take the House:
Again, Republicans had full control over redistricting in 17 states (AL, AR, FL, GA, IN, KS, KY, MS, MO, NE, NH, NC, OK, SC, TN, TX and WV).
Again, Republicans had full control over redistricting in 17 states (AL, AR, FL, GA, IN, KS, KY, MS, MO, NE, NH, NC, OK, SC, TN, TX and WV).
Democrats had full control over redistricting in 7 states (IL, MD, MA, NV, NM, OR and RI).
There were 3 states in which an Independent Commission drew the lines but Republicans could override them (IA, OH and UT).
There were 3 states in which an Independent Commission drew the lines but Republicans could override them (IA, OH and UT).
And there was 1 state in which an Independent Commission drew the lines but Democrats could override them (NY).
Because of the 2020 Census, CA, IL, MI, NY, OH, PA and WV all lost House seats.
Because of the 2020 Census, CA, IL, MI, NY, OH, PA and WV all lost House seats.
This is a spreadsheet of Cook Report races which I made based on currently reported results (9am Wed).
+1= Dem Victory
-1=GOP Victory
+0.5= Dem winning
-0.5 = GOP winning
Based on this, right now, I think the Dems hold onto the US House.
#Election2022
+1= Dem Victory
-1=GOP Victory
+0.5= Dem winning
-0.5 = GOP winning
Based on this, right now, I think the Dems hold onto the US House.
#Election2022
The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes its final major filing binge before next week's election, dropping $29.4 million in 41 races.
Tonight's dump brings their general election IE total to just under $210 million, over $70 million ahead of their 2020 pace.
Tonight's dump brings their general election IE total to just under $210 million, over $70 million ahead of their 2020 pace.
And here's the climactic burst of spending from the Democratic House Majority PAC, putting up...
$45.9 million in 57 House races...
adding #NJ11, #NH02, #IL06, #NY25, #IL14, and #NM03 to the board as targeted seats 68-73
$45.9 million in 57 House races...
adding #NJ11, #NH02, #IL06, #NY25, #IL14, and #NM03 to the board as targeted seats 68-73
The DCCC is out with what is likely its final major buy before the election, dropping $8 million in 23 House races and adding the Biden +15% #NY04 to the board as targeted seat number 67.
(This is also the first direct independent expenditure spending by the DCCC to defend DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney in #NY17).
The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes tonight's filing dump, dropping $24.9 million in 39 races, bringing its general election IE spending to $175,411,754, more than the $173,430,579 spent by the Democratic House Majority PAC and the DCCC combined.
Whoa...House Majority PAC off the top rope with $30 million distributed across 45 races.
*strike that, 47 races. The largest buy goes to the Biden +12% #NJ05, making its debut on the chart as targeted seat #65.
The Democratic House Majority PAC goes up with $17.47 million in ads across 40 districts, including the first spending by any of the big four committees in Josh Harder's #CA09, bringing the number of targeted House seats to an even 60.
The @dccc's Tuesday night dump at 3 weeks out adds another $12.57M in spending across 25 races, bringing their general election expenditures to $64 million as the NRCC continues to hold back, logging less than $30 million in IEs.
Friday night's filing dump from the GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes after a $23.15 million torrent of spending spread across 43 targeted House races.
CLF has now passed $120 million in general election IEs.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/β¦
CLF has now passed $120 million in general election IEs.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/β¦
Congressional Leadership Fund continues to run well ahead of their pace from past cycles and is running laps around the Democratic House Majority PAC, outspending their counterpart $120.9M to $40.7M.
The House GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund SuperPAC wraps up its Friday spending dump, finishing up at $22 million deployed across 42 House races.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/β¦
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/β¦
32 days out, @CLFSuperPAC's general election spending is running ~$60 million ahead of their breakneck 2020 pace.
A pair of major filings from the @dccc and @NRCC within seconds of one another...the DCCC dropping $16.8 million in 33 races and the NRCC still holding back and deploying $5.59M in 9 races.
The DCCC's general election IE total is at $46.4M vs $19.5M for the NRCC.
The DCCC's general election IE total is at $46.4M vs $19.5M for the NRCC.
Did you know that:
A) There is a House GOP bill called 'The Life at Conception Act' (H.R. 1011) - also known as a 'personhood' bill - that would declare life as starting at βthe moment of fertilization'?
B) Of its 166 co-sponsors, many are running in very close races?
π§΅π
A) There is a House GOP bill called 'The Life at Conception Act' (H.R. 1011) - also known as a 'personhood' bill - that would declare life as starting at βthe moment of fertilization'?
B) Of its 166 co-sponsors, many are running in very close races?
π§΅π
Co-sponsor: TED BUDD
Race: #NCSen
Democratic opponent: CHERI BEASLEY (@CheriBeasleyNC)
Donate:
secure.actblue.com/donate/beasleyβ¦
Race: #NCSen
Democratic opponent: CHERI BEASLEY (@CheriBeasleyNC)
Donate:
secure.actblue.com/donate/beasleyβ¦
Co-sponsor: MIKE GARCIA
Race: #CA27
Democratic opponent: CHRISTY SMITH (@ChristySmithCA)
Donate:
secure.actblue.com/donate/2021_weβ¦
Race: #CA27
Democratic opponent: CHRISTY SMITH (@ChristySmithCA)
Donate:
secure.actblue.com/donate/2021_weβ¦
π¨2022 FLIPPABLE HOUSE SEATSπ¨
The magic numbers: 5β£ and 3β£0β£
5β£: Average point swing improvement for Dem candidates in House Special Elections Dem over 2020 Presidential margins.
3β£0β£: Number of GOP-held House seats Trump won by five points or less, or that Biden won.
π§΅π
The magic numbers: 5β£ and 3β£0β£
5β£: Average point swing improvement for Dem candidates in House Special Elections Dem over 2020 Presidential margins.
3β£0β£: Number of GOP-held House seats Trump won by five points or less, or that Biden won.
π§΅π
Race: #TX34
Democrat: Vicente Gonzalez (@VoteVicente)
Republican: Rep. Mayra Flores
2020 Margin: Biden +15.7
Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/vicenteβ¦
Democrat: Vicente Gonzalez (@VoteVicente)
Republican: Rep. Mayra Flores
2020 Margin: Biden +15.7
Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/vicenteβ¦
Race: #CA22
Democrat: Rudy Salas (@RudySalasCA)
Republican: Rep. David Valadao
2020 Margin: Biden +13.1
Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/salasweβ¦
Democrat: Rudy Salas (@RudySalasCA)
Republican: Rep. David Valadao
2020 Margin: Biden +13.1
Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/salasweβ¦
π§΅π»π―πΉπ¬π¨π«: The Supreme Court lit 49 years of precedent on fire, creating the nightmare reality the Republican Party has worked so damn hard for.
Let's take a look at where we are and where the GOP will drag our country, kicking & screaming, if given more of an opportunity.
Let's take a look at where we are and where the GOP will drag our country, kicking & screaming, if given more of an opportunity.
At least three vulnerable House Republicans & three @NRCC-endorsed challengers support πππππππ ππππ‘πππ π€βπ πππππππ πππππ‘ππππ (including @BlackmanForAZ in #AZ02 who also π π’πππππ‘π πππππππ π€ππππ π€βπ πππ‘ πππππ‘ππππ ).
Big shakeup in DCCC's House battlefield this AM. The committee named 12 challengers to its "Red to Blue" program, added 3 members to its "Frontline" program, added 8 new GOP/Dem districts to its "In Play" list, and removed 6 GOP-held districts from its target list.
Red to Blue challengers:
#CA22: @RudySalasCA
#CA45: @jfchen
#CO07: @pettersen4co
#IA01: @BohannanIowa
#IA02: @LizMathis1
#IL13: @Nikki4Congress
#MI03: @HillaryScholten
#NM02: @Gabe_NM
#NY01: @VoteJackie4NY
#NY11: @MaxRose4NY
#OH01: @votelandsman
#OH13: @EmiliaSykesOH
#CA22: @RudySalasCA
#CA45: @jfchen
#CO07: @pettersen4co
#IA01: @BohannanIowa
#IA02: @LizMathis1
#IL13: @Nikki4Congress
#MI03: @HillaryScholten
#NM02: @Gabe_NM
#NY01: @VoteJackie4NY
#NY11: @MaxRose4NY
#OH01: @votelandsman
#OH13: @EmiliaSykesOH
On Saturday, Gov. Mike DeWine signed this Ohio congressional map into law. It is only good through the 2024 election, though. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-β¦
Despite Ohio's 2018 redistricting reform, this map is heavily biased toward Republicans. It has a R+16 efficiency gap and creates 11 π΄, 2 π΅, and 2 π£ seats. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-β¦
The map eliminates Dem-held #OH13 and puts Dem Rep. Marcy Kaptur in an R+8 seat. However, it also creates new competitive districts around Cincinnati (#OH01) and Cleveland (#OH13). projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-β¦
In other news, Ohio Republicans appear to be pursuing a brutal 13R-2D gerrymander (up from 12R-4D today).
If enacted, this map would end #OH09 Rep. Marcy Kaptur's (D) career by flipping her seat red. It would also flip Rep. Tim Ryan's (D) open #OH13 red and eliminate retiring Rep. Anthony Gonzalez's (R) #OH16.
Pretty much the last remaining obstacle is the OH Supreme Court.
Pretty much the last remaining obstacle is the OH Supreme Court.
The only competitive district on this map would be GOP Rep. Steve Chabot (R)'s #OH01, where Cincinnati is required to be kept whole per Ohio's new rules. But if the 2022 environment is anything like we saw last night, Rs would stand a decent chance of keeping it.
OHIO: has arguably been the most effective GOP gerrymander of the 2010s. For an entire decade, it's been a 12R-4D rout (below). Zero seats have changed hands.
But now, thanks to a reform passed by voters in 2018, the future of Ohio's map is highly uncertain. A thread...
But now, thanks to a reform passed by voters in 2018, the future of Ohio's map is highly uncertain. A thread...
The reform requires maps keep more cities/counties whole and high bipartisan support to pass a new map. However, if the legislature (and a backup panel) fail to agree, Republicans can pass a map along party lines that's valid for four years only.
If there's a deadlock or Rs simply don't cooperate, Rs could try to pass an *even more* aggressive gerrymander that complies w/ the new county split criteria and packs Dem voters into Cleveland & Columbus for a 13R-2D (!) split (below).
Of the nation's current 435 House districts, 226 voted for Trump in '16 and 209 voted for Clinton.
Based on my initial analysis, Biden carried 216, Trump carried 208 and 11 remain too close to call. But it's pretty clear to me Biden is on track for a narrow majority.
Based on my initial analysis, Biden carried 216, Trump carried 208 and 11 remain too close to call. But it's pretty clear to me Biden is on track for a narrow majority.
hello! While we're waiting for more presidential results, I thought I'd give you an update on the House. @DecisionDeskHQ projects that Republicans have won back 5 seats on net so far. Rs flipped 7 seats and Dems won back 2 thanks to redistricting in NC businessinsider.com/2020-house-eleβ¦
Seats projected to flip D to R, per @DecisionDeskHQ
#IA01 ( Finkenauer)
#FL26 (Mucarsel-Powell)
#FL27 (Shalala)
#MN07 (Peterson)
#NM02 (Torres Small)
#OK05 ( Horn)
#SC01 (Cunningham)
Others to keep an eye on as more votes are counted: #CA21, #CA39, #NY11, #NY22, #UT04
#IA01 ( Finkenauer)
#FL26 (Mucarsel-Powell)
#FL27 (Shalala)
#MN07 (Peterson)
#NM02 (Torres Small)
#OK05 ( Horn)
#SC01 (Cunningham)
Others to keep an eye on as more votes are counted: #CA21, #CA39, #NY11, #NY22, #UT04
Democrats have also fallen short on many of their offensive targets to flip R-held seats: their most promising pickup opportunity is #GA07, where @DecisionDesk HQ has not projected a winner and we should (hopefully!) get more clarity today as more votes are counted/reported
Help make it happen! Follow and support:
#AR02 @xjelliott
#AZ06 @hiral4congress
#CA25 @ChristyforCA25
#FL16 @GoodforFlorida
#GA07 @Carolyn4GA7
#IL13 @BetsyforIL
#IN05 @HaleIndy
#KS02 @Michelle4Kansas
#MI03 @HillaryScholten
#MN08 @QuinnNystrom
#AR02 @xjelliott
#AZ06 @hiral4congress
#CA25 @ChristyforCA25
#FL16 @GoodforFlorida
#GA07 @Carolyn4GA7
#IL13 @BetsyforIL
#IN05 @HaleIndy
#KS02 @Michelle4Kansas
#MI03 @HillaryScholten
#MN08 @QuinnNystrom
These women can FLIP seats in November:
#MO02 @JillSchupp
#MTAL @WilliamsForMT
#NE02 @karaforcongress
#NY01 @ngoroff
#NY02 @VoteJackie4NY
#NY21 @TedraCobb
#NY24 @dana_balter
#NC02 @DeborahRossNC
#NC06 @KathyManningNC
#NC08 @TimmonsGoodson
#MO02 @JillSchupp
#MTAL @WilliamsForMT
#NE02 @karaforcongress
#NY01 @ngoroff
#NY02 @VoteJackie4NY
#NY21 @TedraCobb
#NY24 @dana_balter
#NC02 @DeborahRossNC
#NC06 @KathyManningNC
#NC08 @TimmonsGoodson
Make sure youβre supporting all of the incredible women who can help EXPAND the House majority:
#OH01 @KateForCongress
#OH10 @TimsDesiree
#PA01 @FinelloForPA
#TX02 @SimaforTX
#TX21 @wendydavis
#TX23 @GinaOrtizJones
#TX24 @candacefor24
#WA03 @ElectLong
#OH01 @KateForCongress
#OH10 @TimsDesiree
#PA01 @FinelloForPA
#TX02 @SimaforTX
#TX21 @wendydavis
#TX23 @GinaOrtizJones
#TX24 @candacefor24
#WA03 @ElectLong
Here are the Democratic Candidates running against the GOP Members of the House Judiciary Committee
Postcards & Links for each candidate.
Follow & Support!
#OH4 #WI5 #OH1 #TX1 #LA4 #AZ5 #CA4 #AZ8 #PA14 #VA6 #ND #FL17
#Congress2020 @HouseJudiciary
THREAD
#PostcardsforAmerica
Postcards & Links for each candidate.
Follow & Support!
#OH4 #WI5 #OH1 #TX1 #LA4 #AZ5 #CA4 #AZ8 #PA14 #VA6 #ND #FL17
#Congress2020 @HouseJudiciary
THREAD
#PostcardsforAmerica
OH4 Democrat Running against Jim Jordan
#OH04
OHIO 4th Congressional District
OH4
SHANNON FRESHOUR
@ShannonFreshour
shannon4ohio.com
Donate secure.actblue.com/donate/shannonβ¦
#Congress2020 #NoSafeSeats
@DemCastOH @FlipOhio2020
#PostcardsforAmerica
THREAD
#OH04
OHIO 4th Congressional District
OH4
SHANNON FRESHOUR
@ShannonFreshour
shannon4ohio.com
Donate secure.actblue.com/donate/shannonβ¦
#Congress2020 #NoSafeSeats
@DemCastOH @FlipOhio2020
#PostcardsforAmerica
THREAD
WI5 GOP Incumbent Jim Sensenbrenner is leaving
Wisconsin District 5
#WI5
WI5 Democratic Candidate
Tom Palzewicz
Business Consultant, Navy Veteran
tomforwi.com
Donate here: secure.actblue.com/donate/tomforwβ¦
@tomforwi
#Congress2020 #DemCastWI
THREAD (Sensenbrenner retiring)
Wisconsin District 5
#WI5
WI5 Democratic Candidate
Tom Palzewicz
Business Consultant, Navy Veteran
tomforwi.com
Donate here: secure.actblue.com/donate/tomforwβ¦
@tomforwi
#Congress2020 #DemCastWI
THREAD (Sensenbrenner retiring)
New at @CookPolitical: House rating changes in 20 districts, all towards Democrats. I canβt recall the last time we moved so many races at once, let alone in the same direction.
More @CookPolitical: for the first time this cycle, Democrats have at least as good a chance of picking up House seats as Republicans on a net basis. cookpolitical.com/analysis/houseβ¦
(Hereβs a graphic corrected for #WA03)
