Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #OK05

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2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander

A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)

To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter ImageImageImageImage

I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf

Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.… ImageImageImage
Read 111 tweets
NEW List of Dem candidates running for Congress in 2022 against GOP incumbents! Please take a minute and follow them! It’s the least we can do to show our support for the folks who are literally trying to save our democracy! RESISTERS RESIST #VoteThemAllOut2022
@abbybroyles vs Stephanie Bice House #OK05 electoral objector
@adammgentle vs Mario Diaz Balart House #FL25 electoral objector
@AlishaKShelton vs Don Bacon House #NE02
@AndreaRSalinas House #OR06
@AngieNixon vs Scott Franklin House #FL14 electoral objector
@AnnieAndrewsMD vs Nancy Mace House #SC01
@anthonyjtristan vs Michael Cloud House #TX27 electoral objector
@ashley_ehasz vs Brian Fitzpatrick House #PA01
@AramisAyalaFL House #FL10
@atticaforky House #KY03
@baxterstapleton vs Michael Turner House #OH10
Read 38 tweets
A RECAP of 2020 House races (now that #NY22 is finally resolved)

Dems have 222 House seats. Rs have 213 seats. They are 5 seats away from the majority

Rs flipped 14 Democratic seats & captured the Amash seat. Dems flipped 3 seats. The GOP net gain: 12 seats
The # of House GOP women grew 130%, from 13 to 30, in one cycle

13 Dem members lost in November. But House Rs didn't lose a single incumbent.

Dems flipped #GA07 (Biden+6) & #NC02 + #NC06, thanks to redistricting. The GOP flipped 11 Trump-won & 4 Biden-won districts
GOP flips by presidential margin:

#MN07 (Trump+30)
#NM02 (Trump+12)
#NY11 (Trump+11)
#UT04 (Trump+9)
#SC01 (Trump+6)
#OK05 (Trump+6)
#FL26 (Trump+5)
#IA01 (Trump+4)
#IA02 (Trump+4)
#MI03 (Trump+4)
#NY22 (Trump+??)
#CA48 (Biden+2)
#FL27 (Biden+3)
#CA21 (Biden+10)
#CA39 (Biden+10)
Read 3 tweets
Every state had big stakes on the ballot. I previewed them before Nov. 3 — and now we know enough to revisit it all.

Here's a new thread on each & every state, and DC & Puerto Rico too. Idea is to encapsulate as much of what went down as I can within 280 characters. Let's go!
As a first step: Here's the pre-election thread if you want to explore it.

Of course, most of the information here is available on my…!

And a series of December/January runoffs, of course, still loom large. The cycle is not over!

1️⃣ Oregon:
—became the first state to decriminalize drug possession
—legalized psilocybin
—Dems flipped the Secretary of State office
—Portland/Mulntomah adopted preschool for all
—Portland's mayor beat left challenge
—Rep. DeFazio re-elected in tighter than usual race
Read 44 tweets
hello! While we're waiting for more presidential results, I thought I'd give you an update on the House. @DecisionDeskHQ projects that Republicans have won back 5 seats on net so far. Rs flipped 7 seats and Dems won back 2 thanks to redistricting in NC…
Seats projected to flip D to R, per @DecisionDeskHQ

#IA01 ( Finkenauer)
#FL26 (Mucarsel-Powell)
#FL27 (Shalala)
#MN07 (Peterson)
#NM02 (Torres Small)
#OK05 ( Horn)
#SC01 (Cunningham)

Others to keep an eye on as more votes are counted: #CA21, #CA39, #NY11, #NY22, #UT04
Democrats have also fallen short on many of their offensive targets to flip R-held seats: their most promising pickup opportunity is #GA07, where @DecisionDesk HQ has not projected a winner and we should (hopefully!) get more clarity today as more votes are counted/reported
Read 4 tweets
We're celebrating this morning as 13 NEW proudly #ProLife women (and counting‼️) win their races for the U.S. House!!

#FL27 @MaElviraSalazar

#NM02 @Yvette4congress

#MN07 @FischbachMN7

#SC01 @NancyMace

#OK05 @stephaniebice

These courageous women join the 13 current incumbent #ProLife women in the U.S. House who ALL won their races last night.

We're so proud of these women who will be a bold voice for moms and unborn babies on Capitol Hill & we look forward to working with them to save lives!

Read 3 tweets
Another vulnerable freshman House Democrat down — Insider and @DecisionDeskHQ project that Democratic Rep. Joe Cunningham in #SC01 has been defeated by Republican challenger Nancy Mace… Image
First-term Democrats who flipped R-controlled seats in 2018 but have conceded their 2020 races/been projected to lose by @DecisionDeskHQ:

-Debbie Mucrasel-Powell #FL26
-Donna Shalala #FL27
-Max Rose #NY11
-Xochitl Torres Small #NM02
-Kendra Horn #OK05
-Joe Cunningham #SC01
Abby Finkenauer in #IA01, Anthony Brindisi in #NY22, TJ Cox in #CA21, and Gil Cisneros in #CA39 are all positioned to also conceivably join the list in the coming days, based on @DecisionDeskHQ results
Read 4 tweets
Candidate Spotlight! We are proud to be standing with @StephanieBice in #OK05! Her #prolife, #prowoman leadership is exactly what we need in Congress.
#SBAListEndorsed #SBAListCandidateSpotlights #OKpol
As an Oklahoma State Senator, @StephanieBice fought for the unborn. In Congress, she’ll do it again! A vote for Stephanie Bice is a vote for:
✅Ending infanticide
✅Ending late-term abortions
✅Keeping taxpayer $$$ out of abortions
Her opponent is Rep. Horn, who has tagged along with Pelosi’s radical agenda of abortion on demand every step of the way. She clearly doesn’t share the #profamily values of Oklahoma. It’s time for a #prolife leader like @StephanieBice to represent #OK05 instead!
Read 4 tweets
Every state has big stakes on the ballot — it's just some are facing a perfect storm where so much that matters is competitive at once.

So I'm starting this ongoing thread of states, to encapsulate as many stakes as I can within 280 characters. (Let's do roughly one a day!)
1️⃣ North Carolina really is it:

—Could decide WH
—Could decide U.S. Senate majority
—Ds may gain at least 2 House seats. More?
—Can Ds keep governorship (& veto power)?
—Can Ds pick-up a legislative chamber?
—3 Supreme Court seats!👀
—AG, LG (if Gov vacancy...), SoS competitive
2️⃣ Montana is up there too:
—Could decide Senate majority!
—Open Gov race. Would be GOP's first win since 2000, likely give them trifecta. And it's Gianforte on the ballot.
—Open SoS & AG races
—An open, tight House race
—An intriguing Supreme Court race
—Gun control referendum
Read 40 tweets
Republicans in #OK05 House district will elect their nominee in primary runoff election today btwn Terry Neese & Stephanie Bice. Winner will face 1st term Democratic Rep. Kendra Horn, who flipped OKC area seat in 2018, defeating 2-term GOP Rep Steve Russell w/50.7% of the vote.
Massachusetts primary is one week from today when Democratic voters will choose between Senator Ed Markey and challenger Rep. Joe Kennedy III for US Senate, and 16-term Rep. Richard Neal, chair of House Ways and Means Cmte vs. Holyoke Mayor Alex Morse in western #MA01 district.
#OK05 GOP primary runoff:
Terry Neese 50.1%
Stephanie Bice 49.9%
16.12% of precincts reporting
Read 11 tweets
House Rs are no longer w/in range of taking back the majority. But if there's a silver lining, it's that they're poised to elect far more women than they did in 2018, when their female ranks plummeted from 22 to 13 (!).
Four GOP women are basically guaranteed to come to Congress in 2021:

#GA14 Marjorie Taylor Greene
#IL15 Mary Miller
#MI10 Lisa McClain
#TN01 Diana Harshbarger

Four more w/ strong opportunities in open seats: #CO03 Boebert, #IN05 Spartz, #IA02 Miller-Meeks, #TX24 Van Duyne
Additionally, there are 7 more GOP women running against Dem incumbents in @CookPolitical's Toss Up column:

#IA01 Ashley Hinson
#MN07 Michelle Fischbach
#NM02 Yvette Herrell
#NY11 Nicole Malliotakis
#NY22 Claudia Tenney
#OK05 Terry Neese/Stephanie Bice (runoff)
#SC01 Nancy Mace
Read 4 tweets
5 days ago, I tweeted that I was angry.

I channeled my anger into action & created plans to flip the House from 🔵🔜🔴.

President Trump even retweeted me 4 times.

The fact of the matter is that no one is coming to save us & we need to to it ourselves.
In 2018, the democrats flipped California’s 25th Congressional District from red to blue.

Disgraced democrat Katie Hill resigned, leaving the seat vacant.

There’s a special election to fill the seat on May 12th.

You can sign up to make phone calls here:…
California’s 39th Congressional District is flippable from 🔵🔜🔴.

Our Republican candidate is @YoungKimCA.…
Read 25 tweets
Time for super pacs to start running ads in these districts letting voters know if these people vote for impeachment, they get voted out. Period.
We're gonna make these people famous today

From now until Wednesday, it's time to put pressure on these Dems:

You vote with AOC and impeachment, and you're toast. She's in New York City and doesn't give a shit you're in a red district.

Voting for censure is your only way out


Tom O’Halleran #AZ01



(202) 225-3361

Lucy McBath #GA06



(202) 225-4501
Read 11 tweets
This week's Voting Rights Roundup: The most extreme gerrymander in modern history is struck down, a 2020 AZ ballot initiative could majorly expand voting rights, PA finally gets no-excuse mail voting, Dems file several new voting rights lawsuits, & more…
A proposed Oklahoma initiative would create an independent redistricting commission if it makes the 2020 ballot. I explained how it would work here. The criteria prioritize communities of interest, racial & partisan fairness, & ending prison gerrymandering…
If this commission passes, Oklahoma could end up with a congressional map looking somewhat like this one. Dem Rep. Kendra Horn's red-leaning #OK05 would become a few points less red, but Republicans could easily gerrymander her out of her seat if they remain in control after 2020
Read 5 tweets
#MarchforTrump 📢👟🇺🇸💯

Men & Women! 💃🕺

October 17th @ 10 AM

US Capitol AND Locations across the country!

#KAG #MAGA #WomenForTrump #stopimpeachmentnow #StandWithTrump #standwithPOTUS

📢We will be having protests outside of congressional district offices in the following districts.📢
Read 5 tweets
Call & tell these AL & AZ Reps to STOP enabling Trump & being AGAINST @HouseJudiciary #IMPEACHMENT inquiry;
#AL07 @RepTerriSewell 202-225-2665
#AZ01 @TomOhalleran 202-225-3361
Call & tell these California Reps to STOP enabling Trump by being AGAINST @HouseJudiciary #IMPEACHMENT inquiry:

#CA05 @RepThompson 202-225-3311
#CA07 @RepBera 202-225-5716
#CA09 @RepMcNerney 202-225-1947
#CA10 @RepJoshHarder 202-225-4540
#CA12 @SpeakerPelosi 202-225-4965
Call & tell these California Reps to STOP enabling Trump & being AGAINST @HouseJudiciary #IMPEACHMENT inquiry:

#CA16 @RepJimCosta 202-225-3341
#CA18 @RepAnnaEshoo 202-225-8104
#CA20 @RepJimmyPanetta 202-225-2861
#CA21 @RepTJCox 202-225-4695
Read 29 tweets
Of your 46 Dem House Reps, 22 are afraid of #ImpeachmentInquiry. The only thing to fear is fear itself. Call & tell them: Do your job!

#CA05 @RepThompson 202-225-3311
#CA07 @RepBera 202-225-5716
#CA09 @RepMcNerney 202-225-1947
#CA10 @RepJoshHarder 202-225-4540
Of your 46 Dem House Reps, 22 are afraid of #ImpeachmentInquiry. The only thing to fear is fear itself. Call & tell them: Do your job!

#CA12 @SpeakerPelosi 202-225-4965
#CA16 @RepJimCosta 202-225-3341
#CA17 @RepRoKhanna 202-225-2631
#CA18 @RepAnnaEshoo 202-225-8104
Of your 46 Dem House Reps, 22 are afraid of #ImpeachmentInquiry. The only thing to fear is fear itself. Call & tell them:Do your job!

#CA19 @RepZoeLofgren 202-225-3072
#CA20 @RepJimmyPanetta 202-225-2861
#CA21 @RepTJCox 202-225-4695
#CA24 @RepCarbajal 202-225-3601
Read 46 tweets
Dear Dem @HouseJudiciary members;
@RepJerryNadler NY, @JacksonLeeTX18, @RepCohen TN, @RepHankJohnson GA; Experts say @SpeakerPelosi’s flat wrong. Think for yourself.

“Democrats Against Impeachment Invite Autocracy and a Loss in 2020”…
Dear Dem @HouseJudiciary members;
@RepTedDeutch FL, @RepKarenBass CA, @RepZoeLofgren CA, @RepRichmond LA; Experts say @SpeakerPelosi’s flat wrong. Think for yourself.

“Democrats Against Impeachment Invite Autocracy and a Loss in 2020”…
Dear Dem @HouseJudiciary members;
@RepJeffries NY, @RepCicilline RI, @RepSwalwell CA, @TedLieu CA, @RepRaskin MD;
Experts say @SpeakerPelosi is flat wrong. Think for yourself.

“Democrats Against Impeachment Invite Autocracy and a Loss in 2020”…
Read 15 tweets
#116th New Congress convenes soon!
43 HOUSE SEATS FLIPPED BLUE! 🌊🌊🌊 #BlueWave2018
(*Net of 40) 64 New Democratic Members in the HOUSE!
with @TeamPelosi leading the way
What do they stand for?
⤵️THREAD of ALL New Blue Congressfolk⤵️
w/ graphic, campaign website links & Twitter
Arizona #AZ02 #116thCongress
Representative Ann Kirkpatrick

"Proud lifelong Arizonan, former prosecutor & congresswoman, independent voice for working Arizona families."

Arizona #AZ09 #AZ9 #116thCongress
Representative Greg Stanton
Former Phoenix Mayor, Former Phoenix City Councilman & Attorney

Read 67 tweets
Damn it #NY11 & #NY22 for ruining my perfect House bracket.
In full disclosure, there were four other House races that every prognosticator in this table got "wrong:" #CA21, #OK05 & #SC01.

But 430 out of 435 ain't bad...I'll take it.
*three other races everyone got wrong, not four.
Read 4 tweets
🚨MY MASTER THREAD of #Midterm2018 results analysis, including an array of data dives. Will the country chose to repudiate president Trump? Health care instead of the wall? RT & strap in, folks, tonight could be a wild ride. We get the first batch of results at around 6 PM ET.
Turnout has looked unprecedented for weeks now. Indications today that it could even beat these lofty expectations. At this point I think I’d buy for pickups in Tossup sub/urban seats like #TX07 #TX32 and #TX26, but sell in more rural districts that have looked like reaches.
Read 82 tweets
HEY #Oklahoma #OK
Here’s a THREAD of ALL your Democratic Candidates with Twitter & Website Links.
Plus VOTER INFO links!
#VoteBlueOK #Midterms2018
#OK01 #OK02 #OK03 #OK04 #OK05

Application Form…
Check Registration & Find your Polling Place…
NOTE: DEMOCRATIC Party is allowing Independent (no party) voters to vote in its Primary elections in 2018.
#OK01 #OK02 #OK03 #OK04 #OK05
Democratic Candidate #OK01 #Oklahoma
Tim Gilpin

vs GOP Kevin Hern

Apply for Absentee Ballot by October 31st
Read 16 tweets

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