Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #OptimismSpa
Most recents (5)
Have digested the latest excellent technical briefing from @PHE_uk on variants and Delta (the variant formerly known as B.1.617.2) in particular. as ever, all findings are context dependent and should be interpreted with care, but this is serious and deserves a wide audience 1/?
First, read all about it yourself (don't take my word for it!). Briefing here assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… and Risk Assessment assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… 2/?
This is from the risk assessment. Yes there is a lot of red. There is now very good evidence of increased transmissibility (will come back to that) compared with Alpha/B.1.1.7 (already quite transmissible). This is important. There is also... 3/? 
Closing thoughts on this hellish year. I am feeling really low right now, but here are some of the people I’ve valued over the last 12 months. This is in NO way an exhaustive list and is biased towards the contacts I made in 2020. It's a place to start thanking, not to finish 1/n
Writers - talking to @edyong209 , @zeynep and @apoorva_nyc has always been great. When it comes to the great @kakape has almost been therapy (honorable mention too for @yayitsrob who has done and written wonderful stuff) 2/n
I've been delighted to get to know folks like @Dr2NisreenAlwan @drjenndowd @HZiauddeen and @DrDomPimenta and the remarkable @dgurdasani1. Was honored to be a part of thelancet.com/journals/lance… 3/n
Very interesting preprint on epidemiology of B.1.1.7 (or the 'Variant of concern' - VOC) in SE England. Have not fully digested but there are some important take homes 1/n cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19…
Some have argued B.1.1.7's sudden rise is a 'founder effect' reflecting the VOC getting into a more densely connected network of hosts, and a number of superspreading events. This seems unlikely to me because there were lots of more common lineages available to be amplified 2/n
the preprint agrees. First, here is the increase in the proportion of cases due to the VOC in the SE (pink) compared with the rest of England (these are detected btw through characteristics of the test result). The gray box is the 2nd national 'lockdown' (👈🏼hate that word) 3/n
Cases have been climbing across the sunbelt. Healthcare is getting strained. Some thoughts – including an #optimismspa 1/n
First the increase is real. And while it is not possible to definitively tie it to any particular change or part of reopening that happened over the last couple months, it is stubbornly there 2/n
If haters gonna hate, then viruses gonna transmit given the chance. Duh. Those who have suggested the increases are only due to increased testing are wrong. These are real outbreaks of unknown dimensions. However -now for the optimism 3/n
Thread. I am getting worried about the word “lockdown”. I worry that it is deeply unhelpful. What it means in different places varies greatly. And it implies that anything branded a “lockdown” will have the same effects as those achieved in Wuhan. 1/n
At one end this feeds into the assumptions that drive the projections from @IHME_UW (which I note change daily). They assume that the US and elsewhere will achieve the same benefits as Wuhan with less effort 2/n
At the other, words like lockdown are scary. As @jmwerner123 pointed out to me, they imply an element of punishment or blame. Neither are helpful 3/n
