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$panr #panr $pthrf

Long 🧵

Some random thoughts for $panr this year and setting some context:

1. Strengthen the board with non exec directors with industry reach and deal structuring experience.
2. Commission blue chip US sell side broker…transitioning to Nasdaq

1/
3. Production: Given it’s close proximity to the highway Alkaid 2 well is already base case economic at current flow rates giving $40 a day revenue (even with a pipe blockage & increased well costs modelled in base case scenario) making the point we are already solid.
2/
Micheal Duncan PANR VP operations and engineering (quote) “This is a very commercial project even with what we’ve seen so far”

So we further wait to see what the full 5000ft lateral produces when we have 100% connectivity of well bore to the reservoir (with blockage was..
3/
Read 22 tweets
Summary of the recent update by WHIreland: Providing context on recent developments & fair value estimate of 199p, adjusted to June 2022 balance sheet. #PANR $PANR
"We had been, and remain, focused mainly on the decline curve and we have yet to even establish a high-quality (peak) initial production rate. We are focused on the decline curve because we believe a large oil company that would farm
into Pantheon Resources’ assets .. #PANR $PANR
..will look to the decline curve in conjunction with an
assessment of its ability to increase the initial production rate by applying more muscle
and optimised engineering" #PANR $PANR
Read 8 tweets
#PANR WHIreland join Canaccord Genuity, Schlumberger (SLB) and more in backing mgmt. Appraisal of the current situation with Alkaid. Target Price remains unchanged @ 199p (Adjusted for available cash) #PANR
Westside to the Eastside: The exploration success on the Westside of North Slope, mainly in Torok and Nanushuk formations, was due to fortuitous discoveries. These discoveries were linked to seismic anomalies, which led to more prospectivity in the area.
#PANR #PANR
The Eastside has key advantages, including proximity to Dalton Highway and the Trans Alaska Pipeline System. The Eastside also has a known world-class petroleum system, with Prudhoe Bay being the largest oil discovery in North America.
$PANR #PANR
Read 22 tweets
#panr $pthrf $panr
Excellent interview. CEO reinforces the model used for ILLUSTRATIVE purposes during recent webinar was a stress test and draconian in nature in order to show the market Alkaid is economic *even if* the data doesn't improve after sand blockage cleared. 1/
To be clear, once the sand blockage is cleared the company expects improved flow rates and improved hydrocarbon mix.
CTO added blunt message. #panr has never been in a stronger position than now ref. data retrieval and confidence in project. Market needs to wake up IMO. 2/ $panr
Bob Rosenthal confirmed selection process started for IER author, plus Schlumberger has agreed to assist in dataroom. IER to be written on Theta West plus updates to Alkaid and SMD IERs.
Great interview. Stock moves up, IMO, as market anticipates post-blockage results. /end
#panr
Read 3 tweets
#panr $panr $pthrf
There appears to be a massive misunderstanding about what the "illustrative" Alkaid model published by $panr means. I think I can be of some assistance 😇.
The NPV figures released yesterday formed a *base* case on the *current* volume and the...1/
...*current* hydrocarbon mix, incorporating the *current* pricing of ANS (oil/NGL/condensate) and addressing the Alkaid reservoir *only*.
Current mkt cap: $500m
Alkaid anomaly NPV10 @ $80 oil = $423m
Alkaid anomaly NPV10 @ $70 oil = $223m
Alkaid anomaly NPV10 @ $60 oil = $12m
2/
#panr $panr $pthrf
A) Volume expected to improve in absolute *and* per thousand feet terms after the blockage is cleared. Nordic rig arrives at Alkaid-2 pad today to begin clean-out procedure. 7-10 days duration.

B) Hydrocarbon mix is expected to improve after the frack...3/
Read 10 tweets
$panr #panr $pthrf
RNS just out, trailing webinar later today which sees Alkaid labelled commercial even at production levels reported on Dec 30th. Company to address "market misconceptions" in the webinar. Great stuff.
$panr $pthrf #panr
RNS out.
1) Rig due to travel to site tomorrow. Confirmed by Alaska 511 website.
2) Alkaid commercial *even at* current hydrocarbon mix and production volumes.
3) Volume and improved oil ratio anticipated as Alkaid-2 blockage sorted.
Great stuff.
$panr #panr $pthrf
Reminder: Alkaid comprises c.3-4% of Pantheon's total recoverable resource across its acreage. Look at the NPV figures at $70-80 oil for Alkaid. Alkaid alone could be said to support the current share price.
Even better reservoir characteristics at Theta West.
Read 3 tweets
$PANR  At current pricing, the 'Alkaid' production stream would generate approximately $40,000 per day in gross revenue once facilities are installed to separate and capture the NGLs and condensate. #PANR
In order to demonstrate potential project economics, Pantheon has developed a conceptual development model for the Alkaid anomaly (not including the shallower Shelf Margin Deltaic ("SMD") formation which is also oil bearing) based upon .. $PANR #PANR
the actual flow rates (137.5 barrels per 1000 ft of unblocked wellbore - and for conservatism ignoring potential improvements to flow rate that may arise as the well cleans up beyond its present 40%) and actual hydrocarbon mix (oil, NGLs & condensate) detailed in its .. $PANR
Read 9 tweets
$panr #panr $pthrf
Seeking Alpha won't publish my fact check so here it is. Sorry about the length of the thread but it was written for a different platform. 1/
"Fact check: condensate and NGLs are produced elsewhere on the North Slope. For example Exxon produces >10,000 barrels per day of condensate/NGLs and fully 7% of Conoco's ANS production is condensate/NGLs. The author states, "While the oil is easily...2/
$panr #panr $pthrf
..."marketable due to the proximity of a pipeline, the NGLs are less marketable and likely receive a fraction of the net price of the oil." There is no issue with the oil part of the sentence but please note the author has deleted any reference to condensate. 3/
$panr #panr
Read 18 tweets
#panr $pthrf
I've read a disappointingly large number of dreadfully ill-informed commentary following today's RNS, especially as it pertains to the differential between $panr's OIP figure of >23bbo and Schlumberger's 17.8bbo. 1/
The RNS spells out the primary reason for the differential: "Schlumberger's OIP estimates for Theta West were constrained to the project's 3D footprint with more conservative reservoir parameters than Pantheon's at the lease boundaries. 2/
#panr $panr $pthrf
With additional drilling data points, potential exists for Schlumberger's modelling estimates to increase in the future."

On a higher level, it is uneventfully mundane and utterly bog-standard for external experts in the O&G industry to publish reports which...3/
$panr #panr
Read 6 tweets
$panr $pthrf #panr
Some highlights from today's RNS which are being missed (deliberately or not) by commentators.
- "Schlumberger's report represents the most comprehensive model completed on evaluating the discovered oil resource and the productive potential." 1/
- "The Schlumberger model is extremely detailed, comprising c. 13 million individual three dimensional cells within the c. 153,000 acres of Pantheon's current leasehold."
- "This model is extremely comprehensive, having been developed over the past six months and...2/
$panr #panr
...involved in excess of 1,000 man-hours with a team of reservoir, geological and geophysical specialists at Schlumberger and is an important step toward modelling reservoir development scenarios and attracting future project partners and supporting project..3/
$panr #panr $pthrf
Read 12 tweets
$panr $pthrf #panr
Some direct quotes from Canaccord (C) and WH Ireland (WHI) in response to Pantheon Resources' RNS dated 8/12/22.
- Canaccord (C): "We see these results as validations of both Pantheon's internal assessments of the very large scale of the oil-in-place...1/
...resources and the potential well productivity. The reservoir models will significantly aid development
planning, and they are likely to form key elements of any future farm-out discussions."
- C: "We maintain our Speculative Buy rating and NPV10-risked...2/
$panr $pthrf #panr
...target price of 300p and we see the Schlumberger report as an important step in the derisking process."
- C: "Pantheon's internal estimates - not significantly different Resources: Pantheon had estimated 23 bnbbls oil-in-place across the four reservoirs. 3/
$panr #panr $pthrf
Read 11 tweets
$pthrf
I note the increasingly desperate Josh Young has today published an article on $panr on Seeking Alpha. In it, he attempts to derive a fair valuation for #panr by using the price bid per acre in the recent State of Alaska North Slope lease auction and applying...1/
...that figure to $panr's total acreage. Deary me, this is facile stuff from Josh, genuinely immature if I'm being blunt. Perhaps Josh is getting grief from MW, Mangrove et al for bouncing them into a non-researched short?!
Here's the thing, if we apply Josh's logic to..2/
#panr
...the dollar amounts bid per acre by Hilcorp (the operator of Prudhoe Bay) on blocks directly adjacent to Prudhoe Bay, Josh would have us value PB's 213,543 acres at a massive $6.04m!!! Yes, that's $6.04m for PB using Josh Young's infantile rationale. 3/
$panr #panr $pthrf
Read 9 tweets
$pthrf
Thread on why being short $panr as the company enters an intense period of consequential news is going up against the clear balance of probabilities.
(a) The flow test results from Alkaid-2, #panr's first production well, are imminent. The flow test will not,...1/
...in itself, be a binary event for the $panr investment case (there are four other distinct reservoirs on #panr's acreage) but it is obvious the initial flow results from A2 will be treated in that manner by many in the market.
(b) Guidance from $pthrf management...2/
...states that a flow rate of 150bopd per 1000ft of lateral will support a declaration of commerciality for the Alkaid anomaly. Thus, 150 x 5.3 = 795bopd.
(c) The Alkaid anomaly was flow tested successfully in 2019 at Alkaid-1. A 6ft (yes, only 6ft) interval was...3/
$panr #panr
Read 23 tweets
$panr $pthrf #panr @Josh_Young_
Josh - please treat this email thread with the seriousness it demands. Bison Interests is a regulated entity. You have 12 hours from the time of this tweet to correct the record otherwise I will be filing a formal complaint with the SEC. 1/
This is not a threat. This is a guarantee.
On Sept 20th this year you tweeted the following: "Directors selling millions of shares of Pantheon Resources stock, and then being "awarded" the same amount of shares. Not a good look. Not involved, no recommendation. $panr" 2/
You then attached a document which appears to be an excerpt of the $panr RNS dated 20/9/22.
I replied to your original tweet informing you I had, in the course of my career in UK investment banking, carried out many of these types of transactions on behalf of UK listed..3/
#panr
Read 48 tweets
#PANR $PANR The Big Short! PANR shareholders have just been played. Well done Shorts, Rnd1 to them! It's a fact that all these shorts were placed some time ago under stealth, in a stock information vacuum, in a weak market, amongst Director selling.
Online attacks + cream on top from MW on the weekend has equaled major shareprice weakness.
$PANR has now fallen 50% since Aug, but there is now in my opinion NO real edge on the short trade coming into a major binary event. Red or Black is better odds!
There is NO edge for MW to tell a forum & Hedge Funds to Short $PANR (after it's fallen 50%) leading into a binary result, where there odds of success are skewed to the upside. No Fund will do it, esp. after they've missed yesterday's price fall post article.
Read 7 tweets
$panr $pthrf #panr @CG_Driven
Pantheon Resources (PANR LN) – Stock down 16% - Muddy Waters short attack: Weekend press staying that Muddy Waters is in the process of a short attack on Pantheon. They have not published anything (that we can find) for the company to make any...1/
...specific push-backs on, so in the meantime, all we can do is reiterate our thesis.
=> Well-testing remains key: I revert back to our research note from Oct 26th.
=> Alkaid#2 update - encouragement and challenges: No details beyond that the well produced..2/
$panr #panr $pthrf
...at initial fluid rates "in the thousands of barrels per day" with around 10% average oil cut.
=> The operational issue: Frack sand production has been higher than expected with limited handling capacity in the temporary test facilities. More positively,..3/
$panr #panr $pthrf
Read 10 tweets
$panr #panr
Short Selling Situation
PANR is a soft target for short selling especially for investors who don’t specialise in the energy sector and especially for a company whose track record, pre-Alaskan acquisition was not good.
Oil company valuations on emerging producers are based on its resources – not earnings or cashflow – its about Net Present Value of existing resources. In simple terms $panr has discovered a very large resource (in the billions of barrels) that needs to be tested
for commerciality which is all normal practice in any discovery – AND it is doing this now. $PANR team is genuinely very excited and extremely enthusiastic about what it has discovered to date
Read 12 tweets
$panr #panr #panr
There is no "gotcha" question remaining outstanding. After 12 years, $300m invested in Alaska, 6 wells and the award of two Production Units from the Dept of Natural Resources the core "known unknown" is lateral continuity.
Only Hempton thinks there's...1/
..."no oil". Everyone else from Peel Hunt to Baker Hughes to eSeis acknowledges the Oil in Place is >23 billion barrels. The key debate prior to obtaining the empirical data is whether commercial flow can be achieved from $panr's stacked reservoirs of light 35-40 API...2/
#panr
...crude oil. I assess that the *fact* "thousands of barrels" of fluid was returned to the surface during the initial clean up phase gives a strong indication the reservoir has, after a multi-stage frack to stimulate, the properties to allow commercial extraction. 3/
$panr #panr
Read 4 tweets
@Josh_Young_1 @BisonInterests @contrarian8888 @EnergyHobbs @Gary02001438 @AlaskaPanr @MuttOil @AIMhonesty
A fellow $panr shareholder told me you made a fatuous readacross from the price bid per acre the #panr bid in the recent lease sales run by the State...1/
$pthrf
...of Alaska Dept of Natural Resources. Something about the implied valuation of $panr's total acreage being c.$6m v's a mkt cap of c.$700m? Apart from the *fact* #panr is the *only* party which possesses 3D seismic data over that area (Great Bear invested c.$80m on shooting...2/
...seismic in the 2010s), I calculate the new northern extension to Theta West will see $panr's OIP move towards a gigantic 30bbo. Yes, that's correct. OIP approaching 30bbo, making it a larger accumulation of oil than Kuparuk River. I presume you're aware..3/
#panr $pthrf
Read 17 tweets
@David37655174 @chmok @contrarian8888 Yes, I have. I'd firstly refer you to the Canaccord and WH Ireland analysts' risked/unrisked models. Canaccord has a risked NPV of 300p and WH Ireland is c.180p (from memory?). Unrisked NPVs get you to 800p-1400p per share. 1/
$panr $pthrf #panr
@David37655174 @chmok @contrarian8888 The question you pose illustrates exactly the dilemma which $panr presents to the market. Using the traditional risked/unrisked E&P valuation methodology, the sheer scale of $panr's OIP and Technically Recoverable Resource means that even if a low risk of success..2/
#panr $pthrf
@David37655174 @chmok @contrarian8888 ...is attached to the project's potential value, a number is delivered which is at least double that of the current SP. Removing the risked calculation altogether leads to telephone numbers of NPV.
In the scenario where Alkaid-2 delivers a commercial flow, I contend...3/
$panr
Read 8 tweets
@contrarian8888 $pthrf
A thread on the *potential* implications of $panr proving commerciality at Alkaid-2 in the coming days. I wish to be more clear about the *upside risk* to this investment case, if proved.

- #panr has announced the discovery of an oil accumulation...1/
...in excess of 23 billion barrels of Oil in Place just 20 miles south of Deadhorse, Alaska. Independent validation of this data has come from the State of Alaska’s Dept of Natural Resources, eSeis, Lee Keeling & Assoc, AHS Baker Hughes and Schlumberger. 2/
#panr $panr $pthrf
I am not aware of one credible voice which refutes the Oil in Place figure.

- There is a legitimate debate that the characteristics of the stacked reservoirs discovered by $panr mean that recovering the oil commercially will be difficult, perhaps even impossible. 3/
#panr $pthrf
Read 12 tweets
@oilmutt @EnergyHobbs @Gary02001438 Hi Oil Muff - merger was completed 21/1/19.
Remember pre-merger, Vision LLC was owner/operator in East Texas. Agreed? Leases were in Vision's name, look at the records. The principal of Vision, Bobby Gray, sadly died (Google him) and Jay had to step in on behalf of $PANR to...1/
@oilmutt @EnergyHobbs @Gary02001438 ...ensure all regulatory functions could continue. The Gray Estate was involved but because they had no access to finance following Bobby's death, they were no longer a functioning part of the Vision/#panr jv. $panr even stepped in and paid the salaries of the half dozen...2/
@oilmutt @EnergyHobbs @Gary02001438 Vision employees for months after Bobby's death despite having no obligation to do so.
I repeat again, why would a current NED of Pioneer and a former President of ARCO Int'l engage in this ridiculous conspiracy you have dreamed up? Every single...3/
Read 23 tweets
$panr $pthrf #panr @Josh_Young_1 @oilmutt @EnergyHobbs @contrarian8888 #eft #oott #Com
Some fact checks for Josh and the Josh Bros like Oil Mutt.
1) Josh refers to mud slinging when it was he who started this exchange by insinuating equivalence between the conduct of...1/
...@PantheonResour1 and the Bre-X scandal. Josh did not provide a single sentence of evidence to back up his outrageous and highly unethical tweet.
2) Josh appears to believe @oilmutt is some kind of O&G super-sleuth. He urges his Bros not to let Oil Mutt have...2/
$panr $pthrf
..."all the fun". Let's examine Investigator Oil Mutt's claims, shall we?
Allegation #1: Oil Mutt began baselessly alleging #panr hadn't reported to the market its Theta West-1 was to be P&A's at the end of the 21/22 winter season. He challenged @Gary02001438 and me to..3/
Read 50 tweets
#panr $pthrf @Josh_Young_1
What else did we learn from today's RNS?
A) the 30 stage frack of the Alkaid-2 lateral was completed over the weekend. Thus insider sales announced last week (c.11% of the three directors' combined gross exposure to $panr's equity)...1/
...occurred during a period when flow testing had not commenced. Thus the company's lawyers and Canaccord (UK NOMAD) signed off on the sales. I fully appreciate the wisdom/timing of the sales is a fair debating point but the whole "those dodgy... 2/
$panr $pthrf #panr
...directors *must* have seen the initial flow rates" can now be discarded as a working theory. Fact.
B) Those who listened to the April and May webinars this year have been aware Schlumberger has been working for months on a 3D visualisation of the various $panr reservoirs...3/
Read 10 tweets

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