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How many people have been infected with #COVID19 in Georgia?
A: ~17,000, at least according to the GA DPH:
dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily…
But, it is likely far more.
I will use this thread to explain why I would not be surprised if actual GA numbers exceed 150,000+.
A: ~17,000, at least according to the GA DPH:
dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily…
But, it is likely far more.
I will use this thread to explain why I would not be surprised if actual GA numbers exceed 150,000+.
First, we have been working on GA-level scenarios since mid March, building upon the work of @neil_ferguson and others. Our models seed a COVID19 epidemic in GA until simulations appear to be “close” to the reports of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.
But, getting reasonable models to get “close” to data was hard. The simulations could get close to hospitalizations and deaths OR cases BUT NOT all at once.
It could be that our model assumptions were wrong. Indeed, we know these are uncertain assumptions.
It could be that our model assumptions were wrong. Indeed, we know these are uncertain assumptions.
