Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #PMI
Most recents (24)
Since the recent event with arguably the largest echo was the #FOMC decision, it's called - what else- "The Pause That Refreshes"
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#FRB
#FederalReserve
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#FRB
#FederalReserve
The first thing to notice is that goods prices have broadly stabilised and volumes are fairly flat - in other words, #NGDP has ceased its torrid pace of increase. Service prices are still elevated but #payroll cost increase is slowing.
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The #ISM #PMI showed an uptick but is still below 50 which implies that revenue growth is NOT about to accelerate again. Again, slower #inflation & flatline volume = an end to the boom, but not yet a bust.
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⚡JUST IN
#China April official #PMI
Manufacturing PMI 49.2 [Est.51.4 Prev.51.9]
Non-Manufacturing PMI 56.4 [Est.57 Prev.58.2]
Composite PMI 54.4 [Prev.57]
#manufacturing #EconTwitter 🇨🇳 1/
#China April official #PMI
Manufacturing PMI 49.2 [Est.51.4 Prev.51.9]
Non-Manufacturing PMI 56.4 [Est.57 Prev.58.2]
Composite PMI 54.4 [Prev.57]
#manufacturing #EconTwitter 🇨🇳 1/
NBS: The PMI for China's manufacturing sector decreased by 2.7 PPs m/m, falling into the contraction zone after running above 50% for three consecutive months.
However, the financial situation of enterprises has improved, and enterprises are relatively optimistic about future.
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However, the financial situation of enterprises has improved, and enterprises are relatively optimistic about future.
2/
NBS: the new export order index was 47.6%, -2.8 PPs m/m, with two consecutive months of significant declines.
Surveys show that the proportion of companies reflecting insufficient market demand was 56.9%, an increase of 1.6 PPs m/m, reaching a new high in 36 months.
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Surveys show that the proportion of companies reflecting insufficient market demand was 56.9%, an increase of 1.6 PPs m/m, reaching a new high in 36 months.
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Der #PMI (Einkaufsmanagerindex) gilt als Frühindikator für die Konjunktur. Neulich habe ich gelesen, dass US-Amerikaner besorgt sind, weil ihr PMI schon seit einiger Zeit kleiner 50 ist.
Ich habe nachgeschaut, wie unser Land eigentlich im weltweiten Vergleich dasteht:
🧵 1/5
Ich habe nachgeschaut, wie unser Land eigentlich im weltweiten Vergleich dasteht:
🧵 1/5
(Quelle zur Grafik oben: pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/Pr…)
Die Amerikaner sind also besorgt, weil ihr PMI leicht unter 50 ist, obwohl er auch die jüngste Tendenz des US-PMIs gar nicht so schrecklich ausschaut wie unser PMI.
2/5
Die Amerikaner sind also besorgt, weil ihr PMI leicht unter 50 ist, obwohl er auch die jüngste Tendenz des US-PMIs gar nicht so schrecklich ausschaut wie unser PMI.
2/5
Der deutsche PMI entwickelt sich dagegen ganz fürchterlich. 😳
Die Amerikaner sind beunruhigt, wir nicht. Zum Glück gibt es von unserer regierungsfreundlichen Presse keine Panikmache, sonst ginge es einem vielleicht noch so wie Heinrich Heine. 😌
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Die Amerikaner sind beunruhigt, wir nicht. Zum Glück gibt es von unserer regierungsfreundlichen Presse keine Panikmache, sonst ginge es einem vielleicht noch so wie Heinrich Heine. 😌
3/5
Thanks to @GeoffCutmore & @steve_sedgwick for the chat on #SquawkBox this morning!
Short and sweet today, but I hope it was of some interest. The notes I put together ahead of time will follow in this thread...
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Short and sweet today, but I hope it was of some interest. The notes I put together ahead of time will follow in this thread...
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First of all, it's #ValentinesDay and SOMEONE is going to get massacred today when the #CPI is released, so naturally:-
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Roses are red, violets are blue,
JayPow doesn't know
And neither do you.
#inflation's effects are not as universal as they were, but does that mean we can all now relax?
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JayPow doesn't know
And neither do you.
#inflation's effects are not as universal as they were, but does that mean we can all now relax?
3/x
UK #recession risk rises as flash #PMI falls deeper into contraction in January amid worsening service sector economy and ongoing manufacturing decline. More at bit.ly/3WzVTev
Survey highlights how headwinds are driving UK economic activity lower, though price pressures are thankfully cooling - albeit remaining elevated
Survey data also highlight how the #BoE policy tightening is having an impact. More rates hikes to come amid reduced government help to households and businesses will undoubtedly add to recession risks.
Global #manufacturing output fell for a 5th straight month in December. Although improving supply helped moderate the rate of decline, a further steepening in the rate of loss of new orders paints a bleak picture of demand. More at bit.ly/3jSl9P9 #PMI
Factories around the world are now also shedding workers in response to worrying signs of excess operating capacity, according to @SPGlobalPMI data
@SPGlobalPMI Similarly, input buying by factories is slumping worldwide as firms adjust their inventories to lower demand and lower production requirements.
JUST IN
#China November official #PMI
Manufacturing PMI 48.0 [Est.49.0 Prev.49.2]
Non-Manufacturing PMI 46.7 [Est.48.1 Prev.48.7]
Composite PMI 47.1 [Prev.49.0]
#manufacturing #EconTwitter 🇨🇳
1/ Thread
#China November official #PMI
Manufacturing PMI 48.0 [Est.49.0 Prev.49.2]
Non-Manufacturing PMI 46.7 [Est.48.1 Prev.48.7]
Composite PMI 47.1 [Prev.49.0]
#manufacturing #EconTwitter 🇨🇳
1/ Thread
China's NBS:
Production and demand continue to slow down on both ends. The pandemic has cast negative impacts on the operations of some enterprises, with production activities slowing down and product orders decreasing.
#manufacturing #EconTwitter 🇨🇳
2/ Thread
Production and demand continue to slow down on both ends. The pandemic has cast negative impacts on the operations of some enterprises, with production activities slowing down and product orders decreasing.
#manufacturing #EconTwitter 🇨🇳
2/ Thread
China's NBS:
46% of surveyed medium-sized enterprises and 58.8% of small enterprises are reflecting financial constraints and lack of market demand, with 0.8 and 1.9 PPS higher than in October, reflecting greater pressures on SMEs.
#manufacturing #EconTwitter 🇨🇳
3/ Thread
46% of surveyed medium-sized enterprises and 58.8% of small enterprises are reflecting financial constraints and lack of market demand, with 0.8 and 1.9 PPS higher than in October, reflecting greater pressures on SMEs.
#manufacturing #EconTwitter 🇨🇳
3/ Thread
1/15 - Become a better trader by tracking markets and learning how to make your own decisions. Don’t try to chase other peoples trades or fall victim to overly simplified narratives from those with vested interests. Here’s how I do it with the data I provide 👇
2/15 - For context, know which type of macro market Mode we’re in, by mapping the monthly rate of change in growth #GDP and inflation #CPI. The closer we are to the zero point, the more impact the #Fed has on markets.
3/15 - Appreciate what the #YieldCurve in bonds looks like and their spreads. Steep yield curves suggest a growing economy and potentially rising inflation, while flat and inverted curves indicate uncertainty and stock market declines.
These are some ugly numbers right here.
Every single PMI in Euroland is slowing down while most are in economic contraction (<50; diffusion index).
Europe is in recession!
Manufacturing & Services
Every single PMI in Euroland is slowing down while most are in economic contraction (<50; diffusion index).
Europe is in recession!
Manufacturing & Services
Asia a mixed bag, with China & Korea in contraction while India‘s economy is accelerating a bit.
#Asia #PMI
#Asia #PMI
The US is decelerating at a big clip and about to contract on manufacturing side next month. Services are already in contraction.
#recession @kittysquiddy
#recession @kittysquiddy
Disappointing #manufacturing #PMI data out of #China this morning, with output falling again after 3 months of gains bit.ly/3dPFUZr
While COVID-19 containment measures continued to dampen demand in the domestic market, China's manufacturers also reported a steepening loss of exports
The downturn looks likely to gather further momentum, with Chinese manufacturers' expectations of their output levels in the coming 12 months slumping sharply
Welcome to the Most Anticipated Recession in History–Part 2 -It's a #GlobalRecession & #LiquidityCrisis. Consumer perspective shaped by what’s going on in their own world despite politicos ignoring the chaos - by @TraderStef for @crushthestreet #Recession
crushthestreet.com/articles/break…
crushthestreet.com/articles/break…
The #Taiwan Manufacturing #PMI dropped to 42.7 in August, indicative of a sharp deterioration in operating conditions that was the worst recorded since May 2020 (1/5)
ow.ly/3kBb50Kxr6v
ow.ly/3kBb50Kxr6v
Taking a closer look at the Taiwan Manufacturing PMI data for August shows a deepening downturn in #production. Excluding the initial pandemic lockdowns in 2020, the drop in output was the worst seen since the #GFC in 2009 (2/5)
Yikes! The US Composite #PMI just fell to 45.0! That is near #recession levels. The Services PMI is down to 44.1, where an increase to 49.8 was expected.
And the key cause was 'lack of demand!'
This does not match market expectations for company #earnings, with or without #energy stocks. If you love the chart, wait until you see what we do with it regarding trading ideas.
linkedin.com/feed/update/ur…
linkedin.com/feed/update/ur…
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰
1/7 🧵
Global Macro Review 08/14/2022
A big decline in $CPI to +8.5% y/y, ➕ the July services #PMI ↗️ ➕ #NFP ↗️, kept the 🔥 burning on risk assets - enough to lure the ♉️
Is this a new ♉️ market or the end of the 🐻 rally?
Let’s dig into the 🧮!
1/7 🧵
Global Macro Review 08/14/2022
A big decline in $CPI to +8.5% y/y, ➕ the July services #PMI ↗️ ➕ #NFP ↗️, kept the 🔥 burning on risk assets - enough to lure the ♉️
Is this a new ♉️ market or the end of the 🐻 rally?
Let’s dig into the 🧮!
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Equity volatility ↘️ across market and 🐻 Trend (T)
$VX 19.53 -1.62 bps
$VXN 25.18 -1.95 bps
$RVX 24.23 -1.07 bps
$VSTOXX 21.21 -1.64 bps
$VXEEM 19.45 -2.41 bps
Chart: $VXEEM lending support to $EEM 🆕 ♉️
Equity volatility ↘️ across market and 🐻 Trend (T)
$VX 19.53 -1.62 bps
$VXN 25.18 -1.95 bps
$RVX 24.23 -1.07 bps
$VSTOXX 21.21 -1.64 bps
$VXEEM 19.45 -2.41 bps
Chart: $VXEEM lending support to $EEM 🆕 ♉️
3/7
US equity indices 🚀
$SPX +3.25% (w) +6.35% (T) 🆕 ♉️
$COMPQ +3.1% (w) +10.55% (T)
$IWM +5.0% (w) +12.5% (T)
Chart: $IWM - small caps have retraced nearly 50% of the 6-mo decline
US equity indices 🚀
$SPX +3.25% (w) +6.35% (T) 🆕 ♉️
$COMPQ +3.1% (w) +10.55% (T)
$IWM +5.0% (w) +12.5% (T)
Chart: $IWM - small caps have retraced nearly 50% of the 6-mo decline
De olho na #MorningCall de hoje☕
➡️#Brasil: O principal índice da bolsa brasileira driblou as perdas observadas nos principais mercados internacionais e conseguiu emplacar alta de 1,11% na sessão de ontem, liderado pela recuperação das empresas ligadas ao minério de ferro.
➡️#Brasil: O principal índice da bolsa brasileira driblou as perdas observadas nos principais mercados internacionais e conseguiu emplacar alta de 1,11% na sessão de ontem, liderado pela recuperação das empresas ligadas ao minério de ferro.
➡️#Mercado: A temporada de balanços continua nesta quarta, com a divulgação dos resultados da #PetroRio, #Totvs e #Ultrapar após o fechamento do mercado. Mais cedo, a Gerdau reportou lucro de R$ 4,29 bilhões no trimestre, 9% acima do registrado no mesmo período do ano passado.
➡️#EUA: Os índices futuros de NY amanheceram em ligeira alta, após passarem dois pregões seguidos em queda, à medida em que os investidores se mantêm atentos aos desdobramentos da visita de #NancyPelosi a #Taiwan. Ontem, as taxas futuras de juros dos EUA voltaram a acelerar.
Ehi there #Crypto and #macro Twitter
Time for #market analysis #Number12!
"Quiet, before the storm"
I will explain here what happened since last week, and cover the broader #economy as it breaks
I will start from #onchain #BTC, going into #Technical Analysis + #macro🧵
Time for #market analysis #Number12!
"Quiet, before the storm"
I will explain here what happened since last week, and cover the broader #economy as it breaks
I will start from #onchain #BTC, going into #Technical Analysis + #macro🧵
Worldwide PMIs to provide guidance on recession risks and inflation trends. Read our free preview of what to look out for in Friday's flash releases ihsmarkit.com/research-analy…
The key data will be the new orders indices, and what they are telling us about the environment in which central banks are hiking interest rates. It's not been looking great up to June ...
🇰🇿 The latest Tengri Partners Kazakhstan Manufacturing #PMI suggests that the sector is in recovery mode. The PMI hit its highest level since the survey began in March 2019, boosted by a record rise in new orders (1/3)
Firms were also successful in their efforts to hire additional staff, with employment up for the first time in a year (2/3)
The positivity at the end of Q2 was seen despite ongoing logistical difficulties for firms due to the impact of sanctions on Russia and associated disruption to trade routes (3/3)
Flash #Germany #PMI Composite Output Index falls to 51.3 in June (May 53.7, consensus 53.1), a 6-month low and indicative of GDP contracting. As with France, consensus well and truly missed
More at bit.ly/3OhVVnF
More at bit.ly/3OhVVnF
Manufacturing Output Index at 49.0 (May: 51.2) amid steepest drop in factory orders for two years. Services PMI at 5-month low of 52.4 (May: 55.0) with demand also now falling.
German businesses also reported their lowest confidence towards future activity for over two years in June, led by worsening prospects in manufacturing. This points to a worsening economic decline in coming months
Big miss for French PMI ... Flash #France #PMI Composite Output Index slides to 52.8 in June (May 57.0), a 5-month low and way below expectations of 56.0. Manufacturing output index at just 45.7 (PMI at 51.0) with services index down to 54.4.
bit.ly/3bmbj41
bit.ly/3bmbj41
So French manufacturing is in a steep decline and the service sector is losing momentum rapidly.
Forward-looking indicators have also turned down sharply in #France. Confidence slid to a 19-month low in June, while new orders and backlogs of work rose at the slowest rates for 14 months
FYI, latest #PMI surveys undermine claims that #NIprotocol / SM membership is helping the Northern Ireland economy to outperform...
NI was the second weakest region In May, with the least optimistic outlook for the next 12 months... (1/3)
#BrexitReality
NI was the second weakest region In May, with the least optimistic outlook for the next 12 months... (1/3)
#BrexitReality
... detail shows Northern Ireland doing worse than the UK average on
❌ activity
❌ new business
❌ backlogs
❌ employment
❌ input costs
❌ prices charged (2/3)
❌ activity
❌ new business
❌ backlogs
❌ employment
❌ input costs
❌ prices charged (2/3)
... and this isn't a new development either 👇 (3/3)
sources: pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/Pr…
pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/Pr…
sources: pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/Pr…
pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/Pr…
The latest #PMI data revealed a mix of sluggish global growth and soaring business costs in May, with input price inflation hitting the second-highest since the commodity price surge of 2008-09 (1/7)
The UK and US are reporting the steepest cost increases of the world’s major economies, while Japan and Brazil also saw unprecedented rates (2/7)
While price rises have been led by manufacturing so far, recent data have shown signs of inflation levelling off due to peaking supply delays and cooling of demand (3/7)
🌐 The latest S&P Global Sector #PMI showed the #COVID recovery propelling consumer services further in May. However, weak demand and inflationary pressures restricted growth across production industries.
Global Tourism & Recreation firms continued on their post-COVID rebound in May and raised employment at the fastest pace on record (since Oct ‘09).
The Global Banking sector endured a difficult May, with new business falling at a pace unseen outside of the initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The flash S&P Global/CIPS composite #PMI fell from 60.9 in March to 57.6 in April. Although broadly consistent with GDP growing at a quarterly rate of 0.7-8%, the latest reading signals a marked slowing in the pace of growth 1/
UK service sector business inflows grew at the slowest rate in 2022 to date. In manufacturing, order book growth has lost momentum, driven by an increasing loss of export sales, to result in the weakest rise in new orders since January 2021. 2/
#UK manufacturers and service providers reported demand having been hit by high COVID-19 infection rates and spending power having been squeezed by higher prices, but Brexit was also seen as having hit exports, and the Ukraine war/sanctions was cited as an additional headwind 3/
