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Confirmed: German #GDP also fell in Q2, by 0.1% q/q. Indeed, German GDP is now only 0.4% higher than a year ago, compared to growth of 1.2% in the UK. The equivalent figure of 1.1% for the euro zone as a whole is now likely to be revised down too... (1/4)
The original timing of #Brexit played a part in the fall in German GDP in Q2 too, as activity (eg exports to UK) was brought forward to Q1. But Germany is also more exposed to global trade wars and the #auto crisis, and worried about its currency becoming too *strong*... (2/4)
Whatโ€™s more, in contrast to the stabilisation in (most) business surveys in the UK, conditions in Germany are continuing to worsen. See, in particular, the July #IFO and #PMIs, and the latest #ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for August (the lowest since December 2011). (3/4)
Read 6 tweets
Good morning all! ๐Ÿ™‚ Morning in Copenhagen - listening to Ludovico while I'm updating analyses and family sleeps. Fantastic piece of music: #AllisGood
Time for some #HZupdates. Let's take a look at the market from the way I see it. Where is that deflation, I have been forecasting? Did CBs succeed to do their magic and eliminate that threat? What about the Kondratiev's winter - over/done? Stay tuned! ๐Ÿ™‚
AUDUSD is inflation gauge. Rally=inflation up; Decline=inflation down. LT perspective looks like this. Decline in 2008 = wave A. Rally up to 2011 = wave B. We have since been in wave C. Wave 5 will take us to ~0.5. Note the horizontal line. When this goes -->free fall #HZupdates
Read 28 tweets

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