Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Popansa
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1/ So after a long time a wrap up tweet on where we are in the 🇷🇺>🇺🇦 war. I wanted to do this a long time ago, esp. as our last @ecfr twitter space was some time in the past. But this 👇 delayed everything a bit. 
2/ Russian breakthrough near #Popansa yesterday a shark reminder that the #Donbas offensive is still ongoing. 🇺🇦 hold most lines, but such breakthroughs are always possible as long as the offensive is going on.
3/ However, I would not start to draw encirclement circles (something quitre fashionable in recent months). 🇺🇦 have been expecting this and prepared lines in the rear. We'll see in the next days if they can stabilise the situation with reserves.
Now that #Popasna has fallen & the #Siverskyi Donets has been crossed, #Russia is poised to finish the first dramatic encirclement of the war. Any UA troops not falling back to at least the Bakhmut-Siversk line & better the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk-Toretsk line will be surrounded.
They cannot withdraw too fast, & without holding the line because then the front will collapse into a rout, as the RU forces press from the east. Remains to be seen if we see a collapse or an orderly withdrawal but question first is which route #Russia will take?
In general it will continue to take the path of least resistance. It will bypass major roads, fortifications & cities when possible. However it will also be bound by roads and the rail lines in its strategy not only for its own supply but also to cut it off from the #Ukrainians.
#Izyum Axis and ISW Map - #Russian forces made small gains around #Severodonetsk by fully capturing Stara Krasnyanka and consolidating gains around #Kreminna. #Russia also appears to be making headway in #Rubizhne with #Ukraine troops pushed out of the city center. 🧵
To the south of #Izyum, the #Russians have pushed into the village of Dibrovne (circled in white) and the area is now contested. 🇷🇺 assaults on several smaller villages in the area were repelled by #Ukrainian forces.
To the south of #Izyum #Russian forces were stopped before reaching the city limits of Dovhen’ke. #Ukraianian troops inflicted heavy losses on the attacking 🇷🇺, who retreated after suffering too many casualties.
