Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Prediction
Most recents (24)
How long would the #COVID19 #pandemic have lasted without the #vaccine?
We have two ways to answer this question: the first is the #historical one, i.e. looking at the past and understanding how many years the previous pandemics caused by respiratory #viruses lasted. (1/9)
We have two ways to answer this question: the first is the #historical one, i.e. looking at the past and understanding how many years the previous pandemics caused by respiratory #viruses lasted. (1/9)
The available data tell us that all pandemics caused by respiratory #viruses lasted about two years:
-Influenza A H1N1 (swine flu), caused by an #influenza A virus of swine origin, lasted from April 2009 to August 2010.
-Influenza A H3N2 (Hong Kong flu), (2/9)
-Influenza A H1N1 (swine flu), caused by an #influenza A virus of swine origin, lasted from April 2009 to August 2010.
-Influenza A H3N2 (Hong Kong flu), (2/9)
caused by an influenza A virus that emerged in 1968 and replaced the previous H2N2 #virus, which lasted until 1970.
Influenza A H2N2 (Asian flu), caused by an #influenza A virus that emerged in 1957 and replaced the previous H1N1 virus, which lasted until 1958. (3/9)
Influenza A H2N2 (Asian flu), caused by an #influenza A virus that emerged in 1957 and replaced the previous H1N1 virus, which lasted until 1958. (3/9)
Prognostic Value of Machine-Learning- Based PRAISE Score for Ischemic and Bleeding Events in Patients With Acute Coronary Syndrome Undergoing PCI: @JAHA_AHA
Editorializing: 3 major applications of AI/ML in medicine: automation, prediction, cognitive reasoning!
Summary 👇👇
Editorializing: 3 major applications of AI/ML in medicine: automation, prediction, cognitive reasoning!
Summary 👇👇
1/📊This study investigates PRAISE score for predicting 1-year all-cause mortality, recurrent AMI, and major bleeding events in post-PCI ACS patients treated with DAPT.
Application for #prediction in medicine using 6433 ACS pts
Application for #prediction in medicine using 6433 ACS pts
2/🔍Study finds PRAISE score has moderate discrimination for all-cause mortality but poor discrimination for recurrent AMI and major bleeding in an Asian population.
(Chinese cohort)
(Chinese cohort)
As part of the @ILCOR_org Pediatric life support taskforce we reviewed evidence for accuracy of tests for predicting GOOD neurological outcome following #Cardiacarrest in children
🧵of key DRAFT recommendations.
🔗costr.ilcor.org/document/clini…
#Pedsicu #NeuroPICU
🧵of key DRAFT recommendations.
🔗costr.ilcor.org/document/clini…
#Pedsicu #NeuroPICU
#Prediction of good neurological outcome is a key role for #PedsICU clinicians in #postarrestcare phase of #chainofsurvival.
Improving prognostic #uncertainty may help clinicians choose treatments, counsel families, and answer accurately, "Will my child be OK?“
#NeuroPICU
Improving prognostic #uncertainty may help clinicians choose treatments, counsel families, and answer accurately, "Will my child be OK?“
#NeuroPICU
The #PLS taskforce conducted a #systematicreview of literature reporting prognostic tests used in children after cardiac arrest.
Four types of tests were evaluated:
*Clinical examination
*Blood biomarkers
*Electrophysiology
*Brain Imaging
#PedsICU #NeuroPICU #CPR
Four types of tests were evaluated:
*Clinical examination
*Blood biomarkers
*Electrophysiology
*Brain Imaging
#PedsICU #NeuroPICU #CPR
Lets find out how #2023 is going to be for those who commented on my previous Post : A Thread #Prediction #NumerologywithCK
Personal Year Number 1 :
New Beginnings, Action, Opportunity
The 1 Personal Year follows directly after the 9 Personal Year of “endings and completion”, and so it represents new beginnings and creating a fresh start. This year, you can wipe the slate clean and begin a brand new
New Beginnings, Action, Opportunity
The 1 Personal Year follows directly after the 9 Personal Year of “endings and completion”, and so it represents new beginnings and creating a fresh start. This year, you can wipe the slate clean and begin a brand new
9 year cycle aimed toward improving yourself and your overall quality of life.Everything you do this year (and the attitude you take while doing it) will set the tone for the following nine years, so it’s vital that you maintain a
positive mindset and be proactive about making
positive mindset and be proactive about making
#astrologer
#prediction
#astrology
#Saturn
शनि की कृपा 2023 मे कैसी रहेगी राशिफल
मेष
ध्यान अपने काम पर रहेगा
गलतियो को सुधार सकते है
बडी समस्या दूर होगी
भाग्य की जीत
मानसिक संतुष्टि
पारिवारिक वातावरण सुखमय
विवाह योग्य जातको को विवाह के अच्छे संबंध मिलेगे
व्यापार मे अनुकूल स्थिति
#prediction
#astrology
#Saturn
शनि की कृपा 2023 मे कैसी रहेगी राशिफल
मेष
ध्यान अपने काम पर रहेगा
गलतियो को सुधार सकते है
बडी समस्या दूर होगी
भाग्य की जीत
मानसिक संतुष्टि
पारिवारिक वातावरण सुखमय
विवाह योग्य जातको को विवाह के अच्छे संबंध मिलेगे
व्यापार मे अनुकूल स्थिति
वृषभ
आपका आत्मविश्वास आपको हर काम मे सफलता दिलाएगा
विरोधियो पर जीत
प्रॉपर्टी के कामो मे लाभ मिल सकता है प्रयास सफल
यदि आपका कोर्ट केस चल रहा है तो उसमे आपको सफलता मिलेगी शादीशुदा जातको का घरेलू जीवन काफी शांतिपूर्ण रहेगा
प्रेम जीवन मे मधुरता बढेगी
संतान की सभी समस्याए दूर होगी
आपका आत्मविश्वास आपको हर काम मे सफलता दिलाएगा
विरोधियो पर जीत
प्रॉपर्टी के कामो मे लाभ मिल सकता है प्रयास सफल
यदि आपका कोर्ट केस चल रहा है तो उसमे आपको सफलता मिलेगी शादीशुदा जातको का घरेलू जीवन काफी शांतिपूर्ण रहेगा
प्रेम जीवन मे मधुरता बढेगी
संतान की सभी समस्याए दूर होगी
मिथुन
उतार-चढाव रहेगा
खुद पर भरोसा रखकर काम करने की जरूरत है समाज मे नए लोगो से जुडने का अवसर मिलेगा कार्यक्षेत्र मे आपको कई चुनौतियो का सामना करना
माता-पिता बडे बुजुर्गो की सलाह आपके लिए अच्छी साबित होगी काम के सिलसिले मे यात्रा
यात्रा के दौरान वाहन के प्रयोग मे लापरवाही न करे
उतार-चढाव रहेगा
खुद पर भरोसा रखकर काम करने की जरूरत है समाज मे नए लोगो से जुडने का अवसर मिलेगा कार्यक्षेत्र मे आपको कई चुनौतियो का सामना करना
माता-पिता बडे बुजुर्गो की सलाह आपके लिए अच्छी साबित होगी काम के सिलसिले मे यात्रा
यात्रा के दौरान वाहन के प्रयोग मे लापरवाही न करे
🧵#Bioinformatics and its impact on #healthcare, a THREAD🧵🧵:
#Bioinformatics is the application of #computational techniques to the analysis of #biological data, such as #DNA sequences and #protein #structures.
In #healthcare, #bioinformatics is used to gain insights into the #genetic basis of diseases, and to develop new #diagnostic tests and #treatments.
🧬🧵here is a Twitter thread explaining #Bioinformatics in simple terms:🧬🧵
#Bioinformatics is the field that uses computational tools and methods to analyze and interpret #biological #data.
This can include analyzing #DNA and #protein #sequences, predicting the structure and function of #molecules, and modeling biological systems.
My textbook with Kosuke Imai (@Harvard) is finally out!
Assuming no prior knowledge of statistics or coding and only minimal knowledge of math, DSS teaches the fundamentals of survey research, predictive models, and causal inference + how to analyze real-world data with R.
🧵..
Assuming no prior knowledge of statistics or coding and only minimal knowledge of math, DSS teaches the fundamentals of survey research, predictive models, and causal inference + how to analyze real-world data with R.
🧵..
1/n: DSS is meant for complete beginners, regardless of whether they are in high school, in graduate school, or out of school altogether. #rstats #surveys #prediction #causality
Want to see for yourself? The first chapter is free here: bit.ly/dss_preview
Book outline:
Want to see for yourself? The first chapter is free here: bit.ly/dss_preview
Book outline:
2/n: We wrote DSS so that anyone could learn the skills we teach by following along with the exercises in the book on their own computer, without the help of an instructor. (Everything needed is either in the book or on the book's website.) #rstats #surveys #prediction #causality
Maybe another word on the '#unredacted Fauci emails', now that it is clear that there were no cover-ups or suppression of #lableak, but just neutral #scientific discussion.
Observe how lableak advocates will run their #disinformation playbook, we've seen this before.
A 🧵
1/
Observe how lableak advocates will run their #disinformation playbook, we've seen this before.
A 🧵
1/
Everytime new contradictory information (to the lableak conspiracy myth) comes out, there is an increase in #activity by lableak advocates.
We've seen this with the BANAL sequences in LAOS that proved that the RBD domain of SARS-CoV-2 was not 'manmade'
2/
We've seen this with the BANAL sequences in LAOS that proved that the RBD domain of SARS-CoV-2 was not 'manmade'
2/
We've seen this in response to 2 scientific papers that establish the Huanan market as the center & start of the pandemic.
(Worth re-reading this thread too)
3/
(Worth re-reading this thread too)
3/
UKRAINE RUSSIA WAR #PREDICTION
I think it's likelier than not that Kherson reverts to Ukraine by EOM January 2023. Not high conviction call but multiplicity of evidence now points to that.
Main focus will be on preserving the one Pyrrhic gain from the war, the Crimean Corridor.
I think it's likelier than not that Kherson reverts to Ukraine by EOM January 2023. Not high conviction call but multiplicity of evidence now points to that.
Main focus will be on preserving the one Pyrrhic gain from the war, the Crimean Corridor.
I adjust to reality.
Kherson only useful as springboard into Nikolaev and later Odessa. Spending ≤5% of GDP on military is insufficient to man or munition such offensives, while also plugging LNR and Zaporozhye. The Dnieper is much more defensible.
Kherson only useful as springboard into Nikolaev and later Odessa. Spending ≤5% of GDP on military is insufficient to man or munition such offensives, while also plugging LNR and Zaporozhye. The Dnieper is much more defensible.
Reality is, Kherson is a smallish, poor provincial city and of the 8 Novorossiya provinces, the least pro-Russian from 2013/14 polls. In denying Ukraine manpower or industries, its loss is close to inconsequential. Main problem is that the dam may then go & Crimea goes dry again.
💡Zététique ou Autodéfense intellectuelle ? (thread)
Lors de mon enseignement des bases de la #PenséeCritique, la « #zététique » et l'#AutodéfenseIntellectuelle m'ont été présentées de façon confondue : il m'a été longtemps difficile de faire la part des choses entre les deux.👇
Lors de mon enseignement des bases de la #PenséeCritique, la « #zététique » et l'#AutodéfenseIntellectuelle m'ont été présentées de façon confondue : il m'a été longtemps difficile de faire la part des choses entre les deux.👇
De plus, sans même parler d'#AutodéfenseIntellectuelle, la définition du terme #Zététique elle-même semble être différente d'une personne à l'autre.
Je vais ici vous en exposer ma compréhension depuis les cours de @RichMonvoisin à son utilisation dans la communauté des #SceptiquesRationnel·les française et parler brièvement des idéologies associées comme l'#AutodéfenseIntellectuelle afin d'éviter les épouvantails.
I have been studying the future of science for 18 months now. In this thread, I will (slowly) list some of the insights gained thus far on the estimating of futures of science (EFS).
1. The goal of EFS is not so much to predict future discoveries and innovations as to (i) understand the structural features of the future, and (ii) critically engage with conceptions of science that shape the visions and actions for the future.
2. There are many interesting similarities between approaches in futures research and philosophy of science. For example, philosophy of science has provided insight similar to those provided by causal layered analysis (CLA).
Re: ideas on #risk, #prediction, #data, and #life, which were inspired by a #random phone call during a break from classes @NYUStern:
Short thread below 👇🏻
@nntaleb
Short thread below 👇🏻
@nntaleb
1 The information you have is not the information you want.
2 The information you want is not the information you need.
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 09/15/2021 greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2021/09/15/dai…
The Atoms of Preparedness
appliedcomplexity.substack.com/p/the-atoms-of…
#ScenarioPlanning #FutureTrends #preparedness #ComplexityScience
appliedcomplexity.substack.com/p/the-atoms-of…
#ScenarioPlanning #FutureTrends #preparedness #ComplexityScience
The tangled history of mRNA vaccines
nature.com/articles/d4158…
#mRNAVaccines #ResearchHistory #breakthrough #COVID19 #PandemicResponse
nature.com/articles/d4158…
#mRNAVaccines #ResearchHistory #breakthrough #COVID19 #PandemicResponse
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 09/04/2021 greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2021/09/04/dai…
Study shows a whale of a difference between songs of birds and humpbacks
phys.org/news/2021-09-w…
#songs #birds #HumpbackWhales #ResearchStudy #differences
phys.org/news/2021-09-w…
#songs #birds #HumpbackWhales #ResearchStudy #differences
A Function Approximation Approach to the Prediction of Blood Glucose Levels
frontiersin.org/articles/10.33…
#BloodGlucose #levels #prediction #diabetes #FunctionApproximation
frontiersin.org/articles/10.33…
#BloodGlucose #levels #prediction #diabetes #FunctionApproximation
We are delighted to announce the release of #PhageAI 0.10.0: extended repository and the new #phage #prediction tool: #chronic #lifecycle. 1/4
Each of the #phage genome has computed a new numerical vector representation by #Phage2Vec technology, re-classified #lifecycles and re-computed nearest neighborhood what introduced updated alignment-free top-10 similar #bacteriophages registry. 2/4
Furthermore, we released beta #bacteriophage #taxonomy #prediction tool.
Feel free to extend your account role from basic to Expert user using "My Profile" view, to access it from the @PhageAI. 3/4
Feel free to extend your account role from basic to Expert user using "My Profile" view, to access it from the @PhageAI. 3/4
Who is going to win the league, and who is going to be relegated? Over 60 Swiss football lovers have made yet a season prediction in our new guessing game. The results contain a few surprises.
swissfootballdata.com/2021/07/17/how…
#football #superleague #prediction
swissfootballdata.com/2021/07/17/how…
#football #superleague #prediction
The predictions so far:
- @BSC_YB on top, but not as dominant as predicted by the robot
- @FCBasel1893 2nd with a huge margin to YB but also the rest
- @ServetteFC & @FCL_1901 seen as best of the rest
- Relegation battle vs. @FCSion & @gc_zuerich
#bscyb #rotblaulive #servettefc
- @BSC_YB on top, but not as dominant as predicted by the robot
- @FCBasel1893 2nd with a huge margin to YB but also the rest
- @ServetteFC & @FCL_1901 seen as best of the rest
- Relegation battle vs. @FCSion & @gc_zuerich
#bscyb #rotblaulive #servettefc
@BSC_YB @FCBasel1893 @ServetteFC @FCL_1901 @FCSion @gc_zuerich @FC_Basel_en @FC_Basel_fr @FCLugano1908 @lausanne_sport You can still make your prediction here. Countdown runs out when the season starts next week.
swissfootballdata.com/2021/07/14/bea…
swissfootballdata.com/2021/07/14/bea…
Doc I'm stressed, I need a #CoffeeBreak
How trying out #SmallTestsofChange and #PDSA could be used to improve staff #Wellbeing during a long medical ward round
Would be great to see what you think, and if you have tried something like this.
Follow #Thread and click on pics
How trying out #SmallTestsofChange and #PDSA could be used to improve staff #Wellbeing during a long medical ward round
Would be great to see what you think, and if you have tried something like this.
Follow #Thread and click on pics
During a consultant ward round on a 30 bedded respiratory ward, one of our ACP's said that she found the 4-hour long ward round stressful and tiring, and was wondering whether we could include a break of some sort for a cup of tea or coffee #changeidea. To refresh the staff.
The consultant was worried that if we did this, we may not complete ward round by 1pm and potentially delay management of patients. And lead to even more stress!
A slew of in press and under review (first-authored) preprints from mine and @jackson_josh_'s backlog: A tweet thread. (More from Josh to come.)
Now in press at the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology: part of my preregistered dissertation "A Mega-Analysis of #Personality #Prediction: Robustness and Boundary Conditions" (psyarxiv.com/7pg9b)
Materials on GitHub (github.com/emoriebeck/big…) and OSF (osf.io/usqzp/). Formatted results in Shiny (emoriebeck.shinyapps.io/Big-5-Predicti…) and a standalone page (emoriebeck.github.io/big-five-predi…).
This year will see epochal #DeFi boom: BTC $100k, ETH $10k - ending in a bust (dotcom bubble).
Then a long winter, when hardy survivors can be picked up at fire sale prices.
And then, come the 2030s - just like software 20 years ago - crypto will "eat the world." #prediction
Then a long winter, when hardy survivors can be picked up at fire sale prices.
And then, come the 2030s - just like software 20 years ago - crypto will "eat the world." #prediction
This is extremely specific and unlikely to happen in quite this way, but I do think that generally, this is what will actually happen. Crypto is replicating all the institutions and infrastructure of the modern economy. But this boom came just a bit too early to actualize rn.
Last major digital asset to "moon" will be "land". Don't know if urbit will dominate, but does have "first mover" advantage. Stars currently worth ~$5,000, might increase 100x within the decade. Window of opportunity for competitors is narrowing fast (Metcalfe's Law).
*4th PLACE* of our most impactful articles published in @RSeriesa in 2020 according to @altmetric:
Tanner et al: doi.org/10.1111/rssa.1…
🧵👇🏽
Tanner et al: doi.org/10.1111/rssa.1…
🧵👇🏽
*CONTEXT* Dynamic prediction models provide predicted probabilities that can be updated over time as data become available. There is growing interest in the use of #machinelearning 🤖; yet, their use in the context of dynamic survival #prediction has been limited.
2/n
2/n
*AIM* Show how #landmarking can be combined with a #machinelearning ensemble to improve prediction performance
*METHOD* Use of discrete time #survivalanalysis techniques to enable the use of #machinelearning algorithms for binary outcomes
3/n
*METHOD* Use of discrete time #survivalanalysis techniques to enable the use of #machinelearning algorithms for binary outcomes
3/n
Haven't been following Georgia. My guess is Republicans lose both. #prediction
Why would lower income Trump supporters (his base) vote for the party that failed to find Trump 11,780 votes and robbed them of $2,000 personally? I certainly wouldn't, I'd sit it out, myself.
Polls have both Dems up by 2% points (Biden was +1.2% and won by +0.2%).
And there's less reason for them to be inaccurate now too.
unz.com/akarlin/habben…
And there's less reason for them to be inaccurate now too.
unz.com/akarlin/habben…
Explosive growth in number of Russian investors - participants on the Moscow stock exchange:
2013 - 1 million
2018 - 2 million
Last year - 3.5 million
Now - 6 million
moex.com/n29976/?nt=106
2013 - 1 million
2018 - 2 million
Last year - 3.5 million
Now - 6 million
moex.com/n29976/?nt=106
Now (Jan 2021) - 9.5 million moex.com/s719
Growing by 0.5M a month.
Russian economy beginning to enter intensive financialization period.
Get in there. Yandex, Ozon, mail ru (VK) still hugely undervalued, less risky/exotic than cryptos.
Growing by 0.5M a month.
Russian economy beginning to enter intensive financialization period.
Get in there. Yandex, Ozon, mail ru (VK) still hugely undervalued, less risky/exotic than cryptos.
Russian GDP (nominal) is 10% of USA, likely to expand relative to it & Internet penetration is now near universal.
Yandex: $24B, Google: $1,400B (70x smaller)
60% of RU search market, doubles as RU Uber (Yandex Taxi), expanding into cloud, video, e-commerce, self-driving cars.
Yandex: $24B, Google: $1,400B (70x smaller)
60% of RU search market, doubles as RU Uber (Yandex Taxi), expanding into cloud, video, e-commerce, self-driving cars.
