Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Probabilities

Most recents (5)

An argument for why the Gambler's Fallacy, the Recency Bias, and Conditional Heteroskedasticity could set up an attractive asymmetric return profile ahead of Wednesday's US inflation (#CPI) data ...

🧵 1/n
Headline CPI is forecasted to come in at 6.5% YoY, compared to 7.1% the month before. CPI has clearly been trending downward since June 2022, which is positive for the #economy and risky assets as it puts a ceiling on how high the #FederalReserve has to raise rates.

2/n
The Gambler's Fallacy & Recency Bias:
CPI swaps indicate that CPI should be approx. 2.5% (!) this June. This seems to be an example of the "Gambler's Fallacy"; a misunderstanding of #probabilities in which people wrongly project reversal towards a long-term mean.

3/n
Read 12 tweets
Galveston: In 1900, Galveston, population 36,000, was obliterated, making it the site of the worst natural disaster in US history, a sad record it retains to this day. 6,000 to 12,000 were killed, thousands of buildings wiped out, etc. 1/
2/ Galveston was rebuilt with a massive seawall and the land was raised as much as 17 feet. 15 years later, another similar hurricane and storm surge hit. The wall worked. Only 53 were killed. #Galveston #Texas #hurricane #UShistory
3/ 1900 #Galveston hurricane: Galveston was one of Texas' largest cities and was very, very wealthy. Disregarding #statistics #probabilities #science #data, plans for a seawall to protect the sandbar city were dismissed as ridiculous. #nature
Read 6 tweets
#Saturn being #Lagensh is #Benefic for both #Kundalis. sitting in the #BhagyaSthaan it acts as #Jaataks benefactor. Especially so for 2) as in the 9th #Bhaav of #Libra #Saturn is #Unch #Oonch #Exalted.
#Rahu is friendly to #Saturn & in both #Kundali it can be #AtiYogKaarak as its placed with it (#Rahu naturally wants to be like #Saturn, but its just a mimik of its #Depositor) in the #Trikon. So in 1) it is placed in #Virgo (#Mercury) & in 2) its placed in #Libra (#Venus).
Read 14 tweets
It's friday. No #Banknifty trades. Let's revise some of the best takeaways form "Trading in the zone" (1/n)
There is a big difference between predicting & executing trades. Predicting what market could do is easy - executing trades is more complex. It takes confidence, humility and #discipline to properly execute a #trade. (2/n)
Trading is all about thinking like a chess player - anticipating all #possibilities and #probabilities. (3/n)
Read 9 tweets

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