Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Quad3
Most recents (9)
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰
Global Macro Review 07/17/22
1/7
Has #inflation peaked?
June #CPI +9.1% ♨️, but core +5.9% 🔻
@NYFedResearch consumer inflation expectations 1-year +6.8% 🔺, but UMich +5.2% 🔻from 5.3%
And firms +3.7% unch per @AtlantaFed
Let’s dig into more 🧮!
Global Macro Review 07/17/22
1/7
Has #inflation peaked?
June #CPI +9.1% ♨️, but core +5.9% 🔻
@NYFedResearch consumer inflation expectations 1-year +6.8% 🔺, but UMich +5.2% 🔻from 5.3%
And firms +3.7% unch per @AtlantaFed
Let’s dig into more 🧮!
2a/7
#Commodities
Chart: Since the June 10 peak at 329.59, the $CRB is -15.75% – and deeply oversold
#Commodities
Chart: Since the June 10 peak at 329.59, the $CRB is -15.75% – and deeply oversold
2b/7
Metals have been 🐻 Trend since May
(T) = Trend = 3 mos price momentum
$COPPER -8.5% (w) -31.55% (T)
$SILVER -3.4% (w) -27.65% (T)
$PLAT -6.0% (w) -16.5% (T)
$GOLD -2.2% (w) -13.75% (T)
Chart: Base metals ↘️ with $DBB -6.45% (w) -31.0% (T)
Metals have been 🐻 Trend since May
(T) = Trend = 3 mos price momentum
$COPPER -8.5% (w) -31.55% (T)
$SILVER -3.4% (w) -27.65% (T)
$PLAT -6.0% (w) -16.5% (T)
$GOLD -2.2% (w) -13.75% (T)
Chart: Base metals ↘️ with $DBB -6.45% (w) -31.0% (T)
Eurozone PPI just hit an all-time high at 36.8% YoY.
8th consecutive all-time high, previous print was 31.5%.
8th consecutive all-time high, previous print was 31.5%.
+5.3% MoM.
Energy costs are up 104.1%
Producer inflation ex. energy is up 13.6%
major #Quad3 stagflation...
Energy costs are up 104.1%
Producer inflation ex. energy is up 13.6%
major #Quad3 stagflation...
Lagarde's comments in an interview a week ago, "If I raise interest rates today, it is not going to bring the price of energy down"
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮
Global macro review 05/01/2022
1/11
🐰🐰 - we’re gonna need it!
Q1 GDP release this week confirmed #stagflation
Growth -1.4%
Inflation +8.0%
But what did April signal in terms of the current quad regime?
Let’s dig into the April 🧮!
Global macro review 05/01/2022
1/11
🐰🐰 - we’re gonna need it!
Q1 GDP release this week confirmed #stagflation
Growth -1.4%
Inflation +8.0%
But what did April signal in terms of the current quad regime?
Let’s dig into the April 🧮!
2/11
UST yields ↗️ across the ⤴️
10/2s to 19.9 BPS, +20.6 BPS and out of inversion
MOVE 128.4 +20% for the month = 🛗 vol
Chart: UST2Y 2.73% + 42 BPS for the month but acceleration slowing
UST yields ↗️ across the ⤴️
10/2s to 19.9 BPS, +20.6 BPS and out of inversion
MOVE 128.4 +20% for the month = 🛗 vol
Chart: UST2Y 2.73% + 42 BPS for the month but acceleration slowing
2a/11
Chart: The UST10Y 2.94% + 57 BPS with room to run
Chart: The UST10Y 2.94% + 57 BPS with room to run
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮
Global Macro Review 03/27/22
1/8
Nothing but #Quad3 #stagflation
as far as the 👁🗨 can 👀
Commodities ↗️
Yields ↗️
Equities ↗️
Let’s dig into the 🧮!
Global Macro Review 03/27/22
1/8
Nothing but #Quad3 #stagflation
as far as the 👁🗨 can 👀
Commodities ↗️
Yields ↗️
Equities ↗️
Let’s dig into the 🧮!
2/8
The 🔑 to ↘️ prices is ↗️ prices?
Chart: The $CRB closed at a new cycle high 307.33 +5.16% and is now within striking distance of the June 2014 🔝
The 🔑 to ↘️ prices is ↗️ prices?
Chart: The $CRB closed at a new cycle high 307.33 +5.16% and is now within striking distance of the June 2014 🔝
2a/8
Hydrocarbons put in another shift this week 🚀
(w) = week (T) = Trend = 3 months
$BRENT +8.75% (w) +53.05% (T)
$GASO +7.15% (w) +56.35% (T)
$NATGAS + 15.45% (w) +54.55% (T) ⬅️
$WTIC +10.5% (W) +54.35% (T)
Chart: Uncle Joe is going to bottle up Natty and sell it to the EU
Hydrocarbons put in another shift this week 🚀
(w) = week (T) = Trend = 3 months
$BRENT +8.75% (w) +53.05% (T)
$GASO +7.15% (w) +56.35% (T)
$NATGAS + 15.45% (w) +54.55% (T) ⬅️
$WTIC +10.5% (W) +54.35% (T)
Chart: Uncle Joe is going to bottle up Natty and sell it to the EU
Hello Thursday! 🔥💥
🪆 unleashes 👹
$MOEX -23%
$VIX 36.23
$BRENT +6.3%
$WHEAT +5.7%
$BTC -7.75%
$GOLD +2.0%
Let's dig into the 🧮!
🪆 unleashes 👹
$MOEX -23%
$VIX 36.23
$BRENT +6.3%
$WHEAT +5.7%
$BTC -7.75%
$GOLD +2.0%
Let's dig into the 🧮!
Asia closed ↘️↘️
$NIKK 25971 -1.8%
$SSEC 3429 -1.7% (safe haven per Mobius)
$TWII 17595 -2.55%
$HSI 22902 -3.2% ⬅️
$KOSPI 2649 -2.6%
$IDX -1.5%
Australia ↘️↘️
$ASX 6991 -3.0%
India ↘️↘️
$BSE 54964 -4.0% ⬅️
$NIKK 25971 -1.8%
$SSEC 3429 -1.7% (safe haven per Mobius)
$TWII 17595 -2.55%
$HSI 22902 -3.2% ⬅️
$KOSPI 2649 -2.6%
$IDX -1.5%
Australia ↘️↘️
$ASX 6991 -3.0%
India ↘️↘️
$BSE 54964 -4.0% ⬅️
Europe opens ↘️🩸
$DAX 14141 -3.3%
$FTSE 7313 -2.45%
$CAC 3568 -3.15%
$AEX 710 -2.5%
$IBEX 8193 -2.9%
$MIB 35104 -3.3%
$SMI 11688 -2.15%
$MOEX 2344 -24.05% ⬅️🪆🩸
$VSTOXX 33.46
$DAX 14141 -3.3%
$FTSE 7313 -2.45%
$CAC 3568 -3.15%
$AEX 710 -2.5%
$IBEX 8193 -2.9%
$MIB 35104 -3.3%
$SMI 11688 -2.15%
$MOEX 2344 -24.05% ⬅️🪆🩸
$VSTOXX 33.46
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮
Global Macro Review 02/013/22
1/11
Lots of speculation about where to from here?
Sometimes, it’s as simple as looking at clear Trends
Equities 🐻
Bonds 🐻
Commodities ♉️
Volatility ♉️
USD 😑
Gold 😑
Let’s dig into the 🧮!
Global Macro Review 02/013/22
1/11
Lots of speculation about where to from here?
Sometimes, it’s as simple as looking at clear Trends
Equities 🐻
Bonds 🐻
Commodities ♉️
Volatility ♉️
USD 😑
Gold 😑
Let’s dig into the 🧮!
2/11
With markets closed before 🪆😱, internat’l equities ↗️ last week
$SSEC +3.0% (w) -2.15% (T)
$DAX +2.15% (w) -4.15% (T)
$HSI +1.35% (w) -1.65% (T)
$NIKK +0.95% (w) -6.55% (T)
$CAC +0.9% (w) -1.15% (T)
$KOSPI -0.9% (w) -7.45% (T)
Chart: $DAX remains 🐻 (T) = Trend = 3 mos
With markets closed before 🪆😱, internat’l equities ↗️ last week
$SSEC +3.0% (w) -2.15% (T)
$DAX +2.15% (w) -4.15% (T)
$HSI +1.35% (w) -1.65% (T)
$NIKK +0.95% (w) -6.55% (T)
$CAC +0.9% (w) -1.15% (T)
$KOSPI -0.9% (w) -7.45% (T)
Chart: $DAX remains 🐻 (T) = Trend = 3 mos
2a/11
Chart: $HSI now ♉️ (t) = trade = 1 mo = +2.15%
A close above 25,050 would confirm ♉️ trend
Chart: $HSI now ♉️ (t) = trade = 1 mo = +2.15%
A close above 25,050 would confirm ♉️ trend
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮
Global Macro Review - 01/30/2022
1/13
With Joe’s blessing (#inflation no good for re-election bid), JPOW is hell bent on ↗️ rates and draining 👊🥣
Backward 👀 🧮 shows 4Q21 GDP +7.0% with +7.0% price deflator and #PCE +4.8%, a 40-year high, but…
Global Macro Review - 01/30/2022
1/13
With Joe’s blessing (#inflation no good for re-election bid), JPOW is hell bent on ↗️ rates and draining 👊🥣
Backward 👀 🧮 shows 4Q21 GDP +7.0% with +7.0% price deflator and #PCE +4.8%, a 40-year high, but…
2/n
… @AtlantaFed is nowcasting Q122 GPD estimate of +0.5% ↘️
With $CRB +15.9% 🚀 off December 1 lows, the evidence of #inflation ↘️ is thin.
That said, Fed WILL tighten into a GDP slow down as fiscal spend ↘️ markedly y/y 😱
Chart: $CRB at cycle highs. 🔝?
… @AtlantaFed is nowcasting Q122 GPD estimate of +0.5% ↘️
With $CRB +15.9% 🚀 off December 1 lows, the evidence of #inflation ↘️ is thin.
That said, Fed WILL tighten into a GDP slow down as fiscal spend ↘️ markedly y/y 😱
Chart: $CRB at cycle highs. 🔝?
3/13
Hydrocarbons said 🖕to the Fed
$WTIC +1.97% (w) +15.44% (m)
$BRENT +3.0% (w) +16.41% (m)
$GASO +3.67% (w) +14.41% (m)
$NATGAS +22.75% (w) +24.4% (m)
(w = week, m = month = trade = t)
Chart: Natty ripped the face off the 🐻🐻
Hydrocarbons said 🖕to the Fed
$WTIC +1.97% (w) +15.44% (m)
$BRENT +3.0% (w) +16.41% (m)
$GASO +3.67% (w) +14.41% (m)
$NATGAS +22.75% (w) +24.4% (m)
(w = week, m = month = trade = t)
Chart: Natty ripped the face off the 🐻🐻
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮
Global Macro Review
01/16/2022
1/13
With #CPI +7.0% and #PPI +9.7% y/y, #inflation is 💪 both in the 🗞 and inthe 📈 with $WTIC +5.6% (w) and +10.78% YTD, while 🛍 -1.9% and consumer sentiment ↘️ to decade low.
Let’s dig into the 🧮!
Global Macro Review
01/16/2022
1/13
With #CPI +7.0% and #PPI +9.7% y/y, #inflation is 💪 both in the 🗞 and inthe 📈 with $WTIC +5.6% (w) and +10.78% YTD, while 🛍 -1.9% and consumer sentiment ↘️ to decade low.
Let’s dig into the 🧮!
2/13
Featured prominently on last week’s Barron’s cover, the $CRB +3.17% obliged and put in a new cycle high.
Image: Barron's cover 01/10/2022
Featured prominently on last week’s Barron’s cover, the $CRB +3.17% obliged and put in a new cycle high.
Image: Barron's cover 01/10/2022
2a/13
Commodities inflation is a problem for the “inflation rolling, #Quad4 cometh” narrative.
Chart: $CRB 💪
Commodities inflation is a problem for the “inflation rolling, #Quad4 cometh” narrative.
Chart: $CRB 💪
Made it to Friday relatively unscathed.
But that's only because of big 💰 position, puts, bonds, and $TAIL position.
Phase transitions are turbulent 🛩️
Let's dig in!
But that's only because of big 💰 position, puts, bonds, and $TAIL position.
Phase transitions are turbulent 🛩️
Let's dig in!
Asia closed ↔️ on the week and ↘️ today
$NIKK 28003 -1.0%
$SSEC 3539 -0.7%
$TWII 17895 -0.8%
$HSI 28082 +0.4%
$KOSPI 3277 -0.3%
$IDX 60073 +0.4%
Australia ↗️
$ASX 7348 +0.2%
India ↘️
$BSE 53062 -0.2%
$NIKK 28003 -1.0%
$SSEC 3539 -0.7%
$TWII 17895 -0.8%
$HSI 28082 +0.4%
$KOSPI 3277 -0.3%
$IDX 60073 +0.4%
Australia ↗️
$ASX 7348 +0.2%
India ↘️
$BSE 53062 -0.2%
Bumpy week for Europe, ↘️ one day ↗️ the next
$DAX 15675 +0.3%
$FTSE 7041 +0.4%
$CAC 6493 unch
$AEX 739 -0.1%
$IBEX 8576 +0.6%
$MIB 24949 +0.3%
$SMI 12026 +0.4%
$MOEX 3806 +0.15%
$DAX 15675 +0.3%
$FTSE 7041 +0.4%
$CAC 6493 unch
$AEX 739 -0.1%
$IBEX 8576 +0.6%
$MIB 24949 +0.3%
$SMI 12026 +0.4%
$MOEX 3806 +0.15%
