Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Quad4
Most recents (24)
Quick insights from our DEEP LEARNING ALGO
(certain commodities oversold)
1/
(certain commodities oversold)
1/
Our deep learning Wheat algorithm signals oversold in $WEAT 
Our Oil algorithm is also in the beginning to signal oversold levels.
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰
Macro Review 🧵
01/22/2023
1/9
Don’t you find it amazing how quickly the phrases “Transitory Goldilocks” and “Immaculate Disinflation” have entered the #macro vocabulary?
Where did they come from? Why?
Macro Review 🧵
01/22/2023
1/9
Don’t you find it amazing how quickly the phrases “Transitory Goldilocks” and “Immaculate Disinflation” have entered the #macro vocabulary?
Where did they come from? Why?
2a/9
Let’s start with “Immaculate Disinflation”
Core #PCE rose .72% in Q4 2022 or +2.88% annualized.
The Fed has to be pleased with this, but given the pace of rate hikes, this is not all that surprising
Chart: Core #PCE
Let’s start with “Immaculate Disinflation”
Core #PCE rose .72% in Q4 2022 or +2.88% annualized.
The Fed has to be pleased with this, but given the pace of rate hikes, this is not all that surprising
Chart: Core #PCE
2b/9
Wages have also started to decelerated quickly - now +4.6% y/y
Chart: US average hourly earnings y/y
Wages have also started to decelerated quickly - now +4.6% y/y
Chart: US average hourly earnings y/y
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰
Global Macro Review
11/20/2022
🧵 1/7
#Recession cometh
Are you positioned accordingly?
Chart: Conference Board Leading Economic Index -3.2% over the past 6 months conference-board.org/topics/us-lead…
Global Macro Review
11/20/2022
🧵 1/7
#Recession cometh
Are you positioned accordingly?
Chart: Conference Board Leading Economic Index -3.2% over the past 6 months conference-board.org/topics/us-lead…
1a/7
The 10Y3M treasury spread, as a standalone indicator, has predicted recession with 98% accuracy.
Chart: 10Y3M Treasury Spread to -52 bps
The 10Y3M treasury spread, as a standalone indicator, has predicted recession with 98% accuracy.
Chart: 10Y3M Treasury Spread to -52 bps
1b/7
According to this Richmond Fed article, when both the LEI and 10Y3M are flashing #recession, there is a 99% chance of recession ahead.
richmondfed.org/publications/r…
Chart: Recession Indicators
According to this Richmond Fed article, when both the LEI and 10Y3M are flashing #recession, there is a 99% chance of recession ahead.
richmondfed.org/publications/r…
Chart: Recession Indicators
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰
Global Macro Review
September 5, 2022
Hello Labor Day 🇺🇸!
Other than the $USD, very little that was in the green long side last week. This morning, commodities are bouncing but equities ↘️
Let’s review the week and the real-time 🧮!
🧵
Global Macro Review
September 5, 2022
Hello Labor Day 🇺🇸!
Other than the $USD, very little that was in the green long side last week. This morning, commodities are bouncing but equities ↘️
Let’s review the week and the real-time 🧮!
🧵
Asia 🪓🩸 last week with $HSI -3.55%, $NIKK -3.45%, and $KOSPI -2.9%.
Today ↔️
$NIKK 27620 -0.1%
$SSEC 3200 +0.4%
$TWII 14661 -0.1%
$HSI 2404 -0.25%
$IDX 7232 +0.75%
$ASX 6852 +0.35%
$BSE 59209 +0.7%
Chart: $NIKK flipped to neutral Trend (T) -0.4% over the past 3 months
Today ↔️
$NIKK 27620 -0.1%
$SSEC 3200 +0.4%
$TWII 14661 -0.1%
$HSI 2404 -0.25%
$IDX 7232 +0.75%
$ASX 6852 +0.35%
$BSE 59209 +0.7%
Chart: $NIKK flipped to neutral Trend (T) -0.4% over the past 3 months
Unambiguously 🪓🩸 ↘️ this morning, Europe was ↔️ last week with $DAX + 0.44% and $CAC -1.7%
$DAX 12640 -3.15%
$FTSE 7200 -1.1%
$CAC 6031 -2.2%
$AEX 666 -1.9%
$IDEX 7778 -1.95%
$MIB 21327 -2.7%
$SMI 10704 -1.7%
$MOEX 2457 -0.6%
$VSTOXX 28.96 🔺
Chart: $DAX bye higher low 💣
$DAX 12640 -3.15%
$FTSE 7200 -1.1%
$CAC 6031 -2.2%
$AEX 666 -1.9%
$IDEX 7778 -1.95%
$MIB 21327 -2.7%
$SMI 10704 -1.7%
$MOEX 2457 -0.6%
$VSTOXX 28.96 🔺
Chart: $DAX bye higher low 💣
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰
Global Macro Review 07/17/22
1/7
Has #inflation peaked?
June #CPI +9.1% ♨️, but core +5.9% 🔻
@NYFedResearch consumer inflation expectations 1-year +6.8% 🔺, but UMich +5.2% 🔻from 5.3%
And firms +3.7% unch per @AtlantaFed
Let’s dig into more 🧮!
Global Macro Review 07/17/22
1/7
Has #inflation peaked?
June #CPI +9.1% ♨️, but core +5.9% 🔻
@NYFedResearch consumer inflation expectations 1-year +6.8% 🔺, but UMich +5.2% 🔻from 5.3%
And firms +3.7% unch per @AtlantaFed
Let’s dig into more 🧮!
2a/7
#Commodities
Chart: Since the June 10 peak at 329.59, the $CRB is -15.75% – and deeply oversold
#Commodities
Chart: Since the June 10 peak at 329.59, the $CRB is -15.75% – and deeply oversold
2b/7
Metals have been 🐻 Trend since May
(T) = Trend = 3 mos price momentum
$COPPER -8.5% (w) -31.55% (T)
$SILVER -3.4% (w) -27.65% (T)
$PLAT -6.0% (w) -16.5% (T)
$GOLD -2.2% (w) -13.75% (T)
Chart: Base metals ↘️ with $DBB -6.45% (w) -31.0% (T)
Metals have been 🐻 Trend since May
(T) = Trend = 3 mos price momentum
$COPPER -8.5% (w) -31.55% (T)
$SILVER -3.4% (w) -27.65% (T)
$PLAT -6.0% (w) -16.5% (T)
$GOLD -2.2% (w) -13.75% (T)
Chart: Base metals ↘️ with $DBB -6.45% (w) -31.0% (T)
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰
Global Macro Review 07/03/22 🇺🇸
1/9
Powell is committed to fighting #inflation and cares not whether you lose 💰 during the war.
“The process is highly likely to involve some pain, but the worst pain…”
Let’s dig into the early campaign results 🧮!
Global Macro Review 07/03/22 🇺🇸
1/9
Powell is committed to fighting #inflation and cares not whether you lose 💰 during the war.
“The process is highly likely to involve some pain, but the worst pain…”
Let’s dig into the early campaign results 🧮!
2/9
The $USD +0.91% ♉️ is becoming more dear against major currency pairs with $AUD -1.97%, $GBP -1.49%, and $EUR -1.17% on the week
Chart: $USD +6.3% (T) = 3 mos, +9.75% YTD
The $USD +0.91% ♉️ is becoming more dear against major currency pairs with $AUD -1.97%, $GBP -1.49%, and $EUR -1.17% on the week
Chart: $USD +6.3% (T) = 3 mos, +9.75% YTD
3a/9
The UST curve both flattened and steepened with 10/2s ↘️ to 5BPS and 30/5s ↗️ to 23.2 BPS
Chart: $IVOL +2.76% (w), +4.9% (T)
The UST curve both flattened and steepened with 10/2s ↘️ to 5BPS and 30/5s ↗️ to 23.2 BPS
Chart: $IVOL +2.76% (w), +4.9% (T)
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮
Global Macro Review
5/15/2022
1/10
30 Vol and strong $USD 💣 around the 🌍 with #crypto 💥 and $GOLD breaking Trend (T)
Bond ♉️s finally caught a 🗡️, but equity ♉️s - not so much, though the $DAX, $CAC and $SSEC diverged from $SPX
Let’s dig into the 🧮!
Global Macro Review
5/15/2022
1/10
30 Vol and strong $USD 💣 around the 🌍 with #crypto 💥 and $GOLD breaking Trend (T)
Bond ♉️s finally caught a 🗡️, but equity ♉️s - not so much, though the $DAX, $CAC and $SSEC diverged from $SPX
Let’s dig into the 🧮!
2/10
Equity vol came in for a second week but remains 🛗
$VIX 28.87 with Trend (T) @ 27.75
$VXN 37.71
$RVX 35.66
$VSOTXX 29.11
$VXEEM 28.52
Chart: $VIX - positive flows from weekly #OPEX pushed $SPX 2.4% on Friday.
Equity vol came in for a second week but remains 🛗
$VIX 28.87 with Trend (T) @ 27.75
$VXN 37.71
$RVX 35.66
$VSOTXX 29.11
$VXEEM 28.52
Chart: $VIX - positive flows from weekly #OPEX pushed $SPX 2.4% on Friday.
3/10
Were it not for positive #OPEX flows, 🇺🇸 equity prices would have been worse by 2-3% on the week
$SPX 2.4% (w) -8.95% (T)
$IWM -2.45% (w) -11.6% (T)
$COMPQ -2.8% (w) -14.4% (T)
Chart: $COMPQ 🔨 is -11.6% over (t) duration = 1-month
Were it not for positive #OPEX flows, 🇺🇸 equity prices would have been worse by 2-3% on the week
$SPX 2.4% (w) -8.95% (T)
$IWM -2.45% (w) -11.6% (T)
$COMPQ -2.8% (w) -14.4% (T)
Chart: $COMPQ 🔨 is -11.6% over (t) duration = 1-month
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮
Global macro review 05/01/2022
1/11
🐰🐰 - we’re gonna need it!
Q1 GDP release this week confirmed #stagflation
Growth -1.4%
Inflation +8.0%
But what did April signal in terms of the current quad regime?
Let’s dig into the April 🧮!
Global macro review 05/01/2022
1/11
🐰🐰 - we’re gonna need it!
Q1 GDP release this week confirmed #stagflation
Growth -1.4%
Inflation +8.0%
But what did April signal in terms of the current quad regime?
Let’s dig into the April 🧮!
2/11
UST yields ↗️ across the ⤴️
10/2s to 19.9 BPS, +20.6 BPS and out of inversion
MOVE 128.4 +20% for the month = 🛗 vol
Chart: UST2Y 2.73% + 42 BPS for the month but acceleration slowing
UST yields ↗️ across the ⤴️
10/2s to 19.9 BPS, +20.6 BPS and out of inversion
MOVE 128.4 +20% for the month = 🛗 vol
Chart: UST2Y 2.73% + 42 BPS for the month but acceleration slowing
2a/11
Chart: The UST10Y 2.94% + 57 BPS with room to run
Chart: The UST10Y 2.94% + 57 BPS with room to run
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮
Global Macro Review - 4/10/2022
1/11
The 💦🍋 has begun as the #FOMC drains the 👊🥣
And they are coming after YOU dear investor
"'The Fed needs to 'inflict more losses' on the stock market in order to rein in soaring inflation.’”
Let’s dig into the 🧮!
Global Macro Review - 4/10/2022
1/11
The 💦🍋 has begun as the #FOMC drains the 👊🥣
And they are coming after YOU dear investor
"'The Fed needs to 'inflict more losses' on the stock market in order to rein in soaring inflation.’”
Let’s dig into the 🧮!
2/11
Realizing the Fed bid is no more, bonds headed for the ⛰️⛰️
10/2s steepened ↗️ to 18.6 BPS from #inversion the week earlier
MOVE 125.96 🛗🔺
Chart: $TNX with a new cycle high 2.72% - there’s no reason this cannot go to 5-6%
Realizing the Fed bid is no more, bonds headed for the ⛰️⛰️
10/2s steepened ↗️ to 18.6 BPS from #inversion the week earlier
MOVE 125.96 🛗🔺
Chart: $TNX with a new cycle high 2.72% - there’s no reason this cannot go to 5-6%
3/11
Bond ETFs go 'no bid' as the 🐻🐻 continue to roam
$TLT -5.5% (w) -12.05% (T) = 3 mos
$BNDD -5.45% (w) -2.2% (T)
$LQD -3.2% (w) -9.65% (T)
$HYG -2.1% (w) -6.55% (T)
$TIP -1.2% (w) -3.65% (T)
$IVOL +1.6% (w) -3.75% (T) ⬅️
Chart: Despite #inflation, $TIP no place to hide
Bond ETFs go 'no bid' as the 🐻🐻 continue to roam
$TLT -5.5% (w) -12.05% (T) = 3 mos
$BNDD -5.45% (w) -2.2% (T)
$LQD -3.2% (w) -9.65% (T)
$HYG -2.1% (w) -6.55% (T)
$TIP -1.2% (w) -3.65% (T)
$IVOL +1.6% (w) -3.75% (T) ⬅️
Chart: Despite #inflation, $TIP no place to hide
Hello Tuesday!
$HYG +0.75%
$WTIC +4.05%
$TSLA +5.5%
As call buyers 🍋 the 🩳
Is this deep #Quad4?
Asking for a friend reading a themes deck in the desert
Let's dig into the 🧮!
$HYG +0.75%
$WTIC +4.05%
$TSLA +5.5%
As call buyers 🍋 the 🩳
Is this deep #Quad4?
Asking for a friend reading a themes deck in the desert
Let's dig into the 🧮!
China closed for Qingming Festival, also known as Tomb Sweeping Day
$NIKK 27788 +0.2%
$SSEC closed
$TWII 17625 -0.4%
$HSI 22502 closed
$KOSPI 2759 +0.05%
$IDX 7148 +0.45%
Australia ↗️
$ASX 7528 +0.2%
India ↘️
$BSE 60397 -0.35%
$NIKK 27788 +0.2%
$SSEC closed
$TWII 17625 -0.4%
$HSI 22502 closed
$KOSPI 2759 +0.05%
$IDX 7148 +0.45%
Australia ↗️
$ASX 7528 +0.2%
India ↘️
$BSE 60397 -0.35%
Europe trading ↔️
$DAX 14555 +0.25%
$FTSE 7548 -0.15%
$CAC 6704 -0.4%
$AEX 742 +0.55%
$IBEX 8577 +0.65% ⬅️ 🇪🇸
$MIB 25201 +0.1%
$SMI 12345 +0.05%
$MOEX 2720 -2.4% ⬅️🪆
$VSTOXX 26.73
$DAX 14555 +0.25%
$FTSE 7548 -0.15%
$CAC 6704 -0.4%
$AEX 742 +0.55%
$IBEX 8577 +0.65% ⬅️ 🇪🇸
$MIB 25201 +0.1%
$SMI 12345 +0.05%
$MOEX 2720 -2.4% ⬅️🪆
$VSTOXX 26.73
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮
Global Macro Review - 04/03/2022
1/13
Why is #Quad4 consensus for Q2?
Because everyone KNOWS that both growth and inflation are “un-comp-able” vs Q2 2021
And right on cue, #Quad4 deflationary signals appeared this week ⚠️
Global Macro Review - 04/03/2022
1/13
Why is #Quad4 consensus for Q2?
Because everyone KNOWS that both growth and inflation are “un-comp-able” vs Q2 2021
And right on cue, #Quad4 deflationary signals appeared this week ⚠️
2/13
Important note on trade (t) and Trend (T) this week
t = trade = 1-mo price change is comping against the March 7 commodity peak
T = Trend = 3-mo price change in comping against the #SPX ATH
Important note on trade (t) and Trend (T) this week
t = trade = 1-mo price change is comping against the March 7 commodity peak
T = Trend = 3-mo price change in comping against the #SPX ATH
3/13
The UST curve went from 🥞 to 🙃 as the 2Y ↗️ +18 BPS and the 10Y ↘️ -10 BPS to #inversion -7.2 BPS
Chart: 10/2s curve
The UST curve went from 🥞 to 🙃 as the 2Y ↗️ +18 BPS and the 10Y ↘️ -10 BPS to #inversion -7.2 BPS
Chart: 10/2s curve
Hello Friday at the 1st day of April!
🐰🐰
Since there's no trading allowed on the Fool's 🃏 Day, let's review the month-end and quarter-end 🧮!
🐰🐰
Since there's no trading allowed on the Fool's 🃏 Day, let's review the month-end and quarter-end 🧮!
🌊 rough seas, for sure, but equity volatility declined into month-end (m) but remained 🛗 for the quarter (q)
$VIX 20.81 -9.34 pts (m), +3.59 puts (q)
$VIX 20.81 -9.34 pts (m), +3.59 puts (q)
The $NIKK +4.88% (m), -3.37% (q) was the best performing developed market
$SPX +3.6% (m), -4.95% (q)
$COMPQ +3.4% (m), -9.1% (q)
$CAC +0.02% (m), -6.9% (q)
$DAX -0.3% (m), -9.25% (q)
$HSI -2.87% (m), -5.7% (q)
$KOSPI +2.15% (m), -7.4% (q)
$SSEC -6.05% (m), -10.65% (q) ⬅️
$SPX +3.6% (m), -4.95% (q)
$COMPQ +3.4% (m), -9.1% (q)
$CAC +0.02% (m), -6.9% (q)
$DAX -0.3% (m), -9.25% (q)
$HSI -2.87% (m), -5.7% (q)
$KOSPI +2.15% (m), -7.4% (q)
$SSEC -6.05% (m), -10.65% (q) ⬅️
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮
Global Macro Review 03/27/22
1/8
Nothing but #Quad3 #stagflation
as far as the 👁🗨 can 👀
Commodities ↗️
Yields ↗️
Equities ↗️
Let’s dig into the 🧮!
Global Macro Review 03/27/22
1/8
Nothing but #Quad3 #stagflation
as far as the 👁🗨 can 👀
Commodities ↗️
Yields ↗️
Equities ↗️
Let’s dig into the 🧮!
2/8
The 🔑 to ↘️ prices is ↗️ prices?
Chart: The $CRB closed at a new cycle high 307.33 +5.16% and is now within striking distance of the June 2014 🔝
The 🔑 to ↘️ prices is ↗️ prices?
Chart: The $CRB closed at a new cycle high 307.33 +5.16% and is now within striking distance of the June 2014 🔝
2a/8
Hydrocarbons put in another shift this week 🚀
(w) = week (T) = Trend = 3 months
$BRENT +8.75% (w) +53.05% (T)
$GASO +7.15% (w) +56.35% (T)
$NATGAS + 15.45% (w) +54.55% (T) ⬅️
$WTIC +10.5% (W) +54.35% (T)
Chart: Uncle Joe is going to bottle up Natty and sell it to the EU
Hydrocarbons put in another shift this week 🚀
(w) = week (T) = Trend = 3 months
$BRENT +8.75% (w) +53.05% (T)
$GASO +7.15% (w) +56.35% (T)
$NATGAS + 15.45% (w) +54.55% (T) ⬅️
$WTIC +10.5% (W) +54.35% (T)
Chart: Uncle Joe is going to bottle up Natty and sell it to the EU
Hello St. Patrick's Day! 🍀🍀
Emerging market equities, commodities, and currencies are 🍻 the 🕊️🕊️ that are PE Powell and the #FOMC
Let #inflation 🏃
Let's dig into the 🧮!
Emerging market equities, commodities, and currencies are 🍻 the 🕊️🕊️ that are PE Powell and the #FOMC
Let #inflation 🏃
Let's dig into the 🧮!
Asia 🚀 for a 2nd day 🍀🍀
$NIKK 26653 +3.45%
$SSEC 32115 +1.4%
$TWII 17448 +3.0%
$HSI 21501 +7.05% ⬅️
$KOSPI 2695 +1.35%
$IDX 6964 -0.4%
Australia ↗️🍀
$ASX 8251 +1.05%
India ↗️🍀
$BSE 57954 +2.0%
$NIKK 26653 +3.45%
$SSEC 32115 +1.4%
$TWII 17448 +3.0%
$HSI 21501 +7.05% ⬅️
$KOSPI 2695 +1.35%
$IDX 6964 -0.4%
Australia ↗️🍀
$ASX 8251 +1.05%
India ↗️🍀
$BSE 57954 +2.0%
Europe a little more subdued but mostly ↗️
$DAX 14410 -0.2%
$FTSE 7305 +0.15%
$CAC 6596 +0.1%
$AEX 707 +0.45%
$IBEX 6410 +0.45%
$MIB 24222 -0.2%
$SMI 11940 +0.35%
$MOEX 🪆💥
$VSTOXX 36.01 🔻🍀
$DAX 14410 -0.2%
$FTSE 7305 +0.15%
$CAC 6596 +0.1%
$AEX 707 +0.45%
$IBEX 6410 +0.45%
$MIB 24222 -0.2%
$SMI 11940 +0.35%
$MOEX 🪆💥
$VSTOXX 36.01 🔻🍀
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮
Global Macro Review 02/27/22
1/13
With 🪆 event risk behind us, equities were able to find relief 😅
But with #FOMC into the #ides in advance of quarterly #opex, vol 🌊 is expected to remain 🛗
Under reported: #PCE +6.1% y/y ↗️
Let’s dig into the 🧮!
Global Macro Review 02/27/22
1/13
With 🪆 event risk behind us, equities were able to find relief 😅
But with #FOMC into the #ides in advance of quarterly #opex, vol 🌊 is expected to remain 🛗
Under reported: #PCE +6.1% y/y ↗️
Let’s dig into the 🧮!
2/13
War 💥 broke out and equity volatility 🌊 actually came in on the week but remains 🛗
$VIX 27.59 🔻
$RVX 33.20 🔻
$VXN 31.19 🔻
$VXEEM 28.17 🔺
$VSTOXX 32.12 🔺
Chart: $RVX retreated from the F 🪣
© @Hedgeye
War 💥 broke out and equity volatility 🌊 actually came in on the week but remains 🛗
$VIX 27.59 🔻
$RVX 33.20 🔻
$VXN 31.19 🔻
$VXEEM 28.17 🔺
$VSTOXX 32.12 🔺
Chart: $RVX retreated from the F 🪣
© @Hedgeye
3/13
🇺🇸 equities ↗️ on the week but remain 🐻 Trend
(T = 3 months)
$IWM +1.52% (w) -9.1% (T)
$COMPQ +1.08% (w) -11.6% (T)
$SPX +0.82% (w) -4.57% (T)
Chart: $IWM - small caps continue to outperform +3.71% over trade duration (t) = 1 month
🇺🇸 equities ↗️ on the week but remain 🐻 Trend
(T = 3 months)
$IWM +1.52% (w) -9.1% (T)
$COMPQ +1.08% (w) -11.6% (T)
$SPX +0.82% (w) -4.57% (T)
Chart: $IWM - small caps continue to outperform +3.71% over trade duration (t) = 1 month
Asian equities ↘️🐫
$NIKK 27467 -2.8%
$SSEC 3558 -0.35%
$TWII 18227 -0.8%
$HSI 24128 +0.05%
$KOSPI 2842 -0.75%
$IDX 6592 -0.35%
Australia ↘️🐫
$ASX 73332 -1.05%
India ↘️🐫
$BSE 60139 -1.0%
$NIKK 27467 -2.8%
$SSEC 3558 -0.35%
$TWII 18227 -0.8%
$HSI 24128 +0.05%
$KOSPI 2842 -0.75%
$IDX 6592 -0.35%
Australia ↘️🐫
$ASX 73332 -1.05%
India ↘️🐫
$BSE 60139 -1.0%
European bourses open ↔️
$DAX 15751 -0.15%
$FTSE 7562 unch
$CAC 7160 +0.35%
$AEX 769 -0.05%
$IBEX 8801 +0.2%
$MIB 27274 -0.8%
$SMI 12520 -0.05%
$MOEX 3442 +3.4% ⬅️🪆
$VSTOXX 21.96 🔺
$DAX 15751 -0.15%
$FTSE 7562 unch
$CAC 7160 +0.35%
$AEX 769 -0.05%
$IBEX 8801 +0.2%
$MIB 27274 -0.8%
$SMI 12520 -0.05%
$MOEX 3442 +3.4% ⬅️🪆
$VSTOXX 21.96 🔺
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮
Global Macro Review
01/16/2022
1/13
With #CPI +7.0% and #PPI +9.7% y/y, #inflation is 💪 both in the 🗞 and inthe 📈 with $WTIC +5.6% (w) and +10.78% YTD, while 🛍 -1.9% and consumer sentiment ↘️ to decade low.
Let’s dig into the 🧮!
Global Macro Review
01/16/2022
1/13
With #CPI +7.0% and #PPI +9.7% y/y, #inflation is 💪 both in the 🗞 and inthe 📈 with $WTIC +5.6% (w) and +10.78% YTD, while 🛍 -1.9% and consumer sentiment ↘️ to decade low.
Let’s dig into the 🧮!
2/13
Featured prominently on last week’s Barron’s cover, the $CRB +3.17% obliged and put in a new cycle high.
Image: Barron's cover 01/10/2022
Featured prominently on last week’s Barron’s cover, the $CRB +3.17% obliged and put in a new cycle high.
Image: Barron's cover 01/10/2022
2a/13
Commodities inflation is a problem for the “inflation rolling, #Quad4 cometh” narrative.
Chart: $CRB 💪
Commodities inflation is a problem for the “inflation rolling, #Quad4 cometh” narrative.
Chart: $CRB 💪
Hello Tuesday!
#Inflation - induced by 🚁💰direct from Uncle Sam to businesses (PPP) and individuals (UBI) and monetized by the Fed - dominates the market zeitgeist right now.
Causing dislocations and volatility, fear of #QT is creating opportunities
Let's dig into the 🧮!
#Inflation - induced by 🚁💰direct from Uncle Sam to businesses (PPP) and individuals (UBI) and monetized by the Fed - dominates the market zeitgeist right now.
Causing dislocations and volatility, fear of #QT is creating opportunities
Let's dig into the 🧮!
Asia markets closed ↘️
$NIKK 28222 -0.9%
$SSEC 3567 -0.75%
$TWII 18288 +0.3% ⏪
$HSI 23739 -0.05%
$KOPSI 2927 unch
$IDX 6648 -0.65%
Australia ↘️
$ASX 7390 -0.75%
India ↗️
$BSE 60544 +0.25%
$NIKK 28222 -0.9%
$SSEC 3567 -0.75%
$TWII 18288 +0.3% ⏪
$HSI 23739 -0.05%
$KOPSI 2927 unch
$IDX 6648 -0.65%
Australia ↘️
$ASX 7390 -0.75%
India ↗️
$BSE 60544 +0.25%
European bourses open ↗️
$DAX 15969 +1.3%
$FTSE 7490 +0.6%
$CAC 7215 +1.4% ⏪
$AEX 782 +1.15%
$IBEX 8781 +0.85%
$MIB 27618 +0.95%
$SMI 12751 +1.2% ⏪
$MOEX 5789 +1.35% 🪆
$VSTOXX 22.54 🔺
$DAX 15969 +1.3%
$FTSE 7490 +0.6%
$CAC 7215 +1.4% ⏪
$AEX 782 +1.15%
$IBEX 8781 +0.85%
$MIB 27618 +0.95%
$SMI 12751 +1.2% ⏪
$MOEX 5789 +1.35% 🪆
$VSTOXX 22.54 🔺
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮
Global Macro Review - 01/09/2022
1/14
Market players returned from 🕎🎄🎉 buying value and oil ↗️ and selling growth and duration ↘️
Let’s dig into the 🧮!
Global Macro Review - 01/09/2022
1/14
Market players returned from 🕎🎄🎉 buying value and oil ↗️ and selling growth and duration ↘️
Let’s dig into the 🧮!
2/14
Roiled by #FOMC minutes (nothing new) mid-week, players bid up $VXN and sold $COMPQ.
$VXN 65 +21% - $COMPQ -4.53%
$RVX +13.31% - $IWM -2.87%
$VIX 18.76 +8.94% - $SPX -1.87%
Chart: $COMPQ -4.44% (t) +2.44% (T)
Roiled by #FOMC minutes (nothing new) mid-week, players bid up $VXN and sold $COMPQ.
$VXN 65 +21% - $COMPQ -4.53%
$RVX +13.31% - $IWM -2.87%
$VIX 18.76 +8.94% - $SPX -1.87%
Chart: $COMPQ -4.44% (t) +2.44% (T)
2a/14
Chart: $VXN accelerates to the 🪓🪣
Chart: $VXN accelerates to the 🪓🪣
Hello Friday
Week to date
$BTC -10.12%
$GOLD -2.15%
$EUR -0.69%
$USD +0.77%
$CAC +1.35%
$SPX -1.47%
$KOSPI -1.92%
$COMPQ -3.61%
$WHEAT -3.21%
$COPPER -2.44%
$NATGAS +2.2%
$SOYB +3.58%
$GASO +3.58%
$WTIC +5.65%
$LUMBER +6.66%
$CRB +1.88%
$TNX +14.62%
Let's dig into the 🧮!
Week to date
$BTC -10.12%
$GOLD -2.15%
$EUR -0.69%
$USD +0.77%
$CAC +1.35%
$SPX -1.47%
$KOSPI -1.92%
$COMPQ -3.61%
$WHEAT -3.21%
$COPPER -2.44%
$NATGAS +2.2%
$SOYB +3.58%
$GASO +3.58%
$WTIC +5.65%
$LUMBER +6.66%
$CRB +1.88%
$TNX +14.62%
Let's dig into the 🧮!
Asia closed ↔️ for the week
$NIKK 28479 -0.05%
$SSEC 3580 -0.2%
$TWII 18170 -1.1%
$HSI 23493 +1.8%
$KOSPI 2955 +1.2%
$IDX 59578 +0.7%
Australia ↗️
$ASX 7453 +1.3%
India ↔️
$BSE 50577 -0.05%
$NIKK 28479 -0.05%
$SSEC 3580 -0.2%
$TWII 18170 -1.1%
$HSI 23493 +1.8%
$KOSPI 2955 +1.2%
$IDX 59578 +0.7%
Australia ↗️
$ASX 7453 +1.3%
India ↔️
$BSE 50577 -0.05%
Europe opens ↔️
$IBEX 8741 -0.55%
$DAX 16000 -0.3%
$CAC 7241 -0.1%
$SMI 12787 -0.05%
$FTSE 7458 +0.1%
$AEX 788 +0.25%
$MOEX 3277 +0.5% 🪆
$MIB 27832 +0.66%
$VSTOXX 20.10 🔺
$IBEX 8741 -0.55%
$DAX 16000 -0.3%
$CAC 7241 -0.1%
$SMI 12787 -0.05%
$FTSE 7458 +0.1%
$AEX 788 +0.25%
$MOEX 3277 +0.5% 🪆
$MIB 27832 +0.66%
$VSTOXX 20.10 🔺
Global macro review
1/14
It’s a new month! 🐰 🐰
Let’s look back on July for positioning clues ahead
Notables:
$GLD ♉️
$TLT ♉️
$FXF ♉️
$CORN 🐻
$SILVER 🐻
$EEM 🐻
$DAX and $XLE teetering on 🐻
1/14
It’s a new month! 🐰 🐰
Let’s look back on July for positioning clues ahead
Notables:
$GLD ♉️
$TLT ♉️
$FXF ♉️
$CORN 🐻
$SILVER 🐻
$EEM 🐻
$DAX and $XLE teetering on 🐻
2/14
The UST curve flattened in July with 10/2s to 103.8 BPS. MOVE 61.19 +5.01%
2Y .188 -24.5%
5Y .694 -20.69%
10Y 1.226 -15.10%
30Y 1.895 -1.46%
Chart: $TNX peaked in March at 1.765% and since rolled over
The UST curve flattened in July with 10/2s to 103.8 BPS. MOVE 61.19 +5.01%
2Y .188 -24.5%
5Y .694 -20.69%
10Y 1.226 -15.10%
30Y 1.895 -1.46%
Chart: $TNX peaked in March at 1.765% and since rolled over
3/14
Bond ETFs ↗️ with curve flattening
$TLT +3.72%
$TIP +2.68%
$IVOL +2.52%
$IEF +1.99%
$BNDX +1.49%
$LQD +1.42%
$BND +1.17%
$HYG +-0.1%
Chart: Convertibles bucked the trend with $CWB -1.07%
Bond ETFs ↗️ with curve flattening
$TLT +3.72%
$TIP +2.68%
$IVOL +2.52%
$IEF +1.99%
$BNDX +1.49%
$LQD +1.42%
$BND +1.17%
$HYG +-0.1%
Chart: Convertibles bucked the trend with $CWB -1.07%
Global Macro Review 07/25/2021
1/16
Hedge funds rattled by $RUT @Mike_Taylor1972 and active participants confused by the phase transition price action @PatrickCeresna
Let’s review what has been working/failing on trade and Trend durations for clues
t = 1-month, T = 3-months
1/16
Hedge funds rattled by $RUT @Mike_Taylor1972 and active participants confused by the phase transition price action @PatrickCeresna
Let’s review what has been working/failing on trade and Trend durations for clues
t = 1-month, T = 3-months
2/16
Domestic equities bounced off Monday’s ↘️ day with $COMPQ +2.84%, $IWM +2.14%, and $SPX +1.96% for the week. But 👀 (t) + (T)
SPX +3.06% (t), +5.54% (T) ♉️
COMPQ +3.32% (t) +5.85% (T) ♉️
IWM -5.48% (t), -2.75% (T) 🐻
Domestic equities bounced off Monday’s ↘️ day with $COMPQ +2.84%, $IWM +2.14%, and $SPX +1.96% for the week. But 👀 (t) + (T)
SPX +3.06% (t), +5.54% (T) ♉️
COMPQ +3.32% (t) +5.85% (T) ♉️
IWM -5.48% (t), -2.75% (T) 🐻
3/16
International equities a little less sanguine with $CAC +1.68% and $HSI -2.44% for the week
CAC -0.82% (t) +4.97% (T)
DAX +0.39% (t) + 2.55% (T) ♉️
SSEC -1.33% (t) +2.45% (T)
KOSPI -1.47% (t, +2.14% (T)
NIKK -5.22% (t) -5.07% (T) 🐻
HSI -6.73% (t) -6.04% (T) 🐻
International equities a little less sanguine with $CAC +1.68% and $HSI -2.44% for the week
CAC -0.82% (t) +4.97% (T)
DAX +0.39% (t) + 2.55% (T) ♉️
SSEC -1.33% (t) +2.45% (T)
KOSPI -1.47% (t, +2.14% (T)
NIKK -5.22% (t) -5.07% (T) 🐻
HSI -6.73% (t) -6.04% (T) 🐻
Global Macro Week in Review
1/12
This past week was NOT a #quad2 week
Bonds and proxies outperformed with LQD +1.2%, TLT +1.72%, XLRE +1.97% and XLU +1.12% vs. SPY +0.4%
Meanwhile, HE’s four horsemen languished with XLB, XLF and XLI all losing positive 1-month price momentum
1/12
This past week was NOT a #quad2 week
Bonds and proxies outperformed with LQD +1.2%, TLT +1.72%, XLRE +1.97% and XLU +1.12% vs. SPY +0.4%
Meanwhile, HE’s four horsemen languished with XLB, XLF and XLI all losing positive 1-month price momentum
2/12
Equity volatility ↘️ continued to drain from the market
$VIX 15.65 -4.69%
$VXN 19.16 -9.71%
$RVX 22.26 -2.45%
$VXEEM 17.88 -7.07%
⚠️ Opex ahead on 6/16
Equity volatility ↘️ continued to drain from the market
$VIX 15.65 -4.69%
$VXN 19.16 -9.71%
$RVX 22.26 -2.45%
$VXEEM 17.88 -7.07%
⚠️ Opex ahead on 6/16
A supportive vol regime and a big decline in yields led to outsized performance in $COMPQ and $RUT
$RUT +1.89%
$COMPQ +1.85%
$CAC +1.3%
$SPX +0.41%
$KOSPI +0.29%
$NIKK +0.02% 🐻
$DAX unch
$HSI -0.26%
$SSEC -0.6%
$CAC still leads +9.16% over 3 months
$RUT +1.89%
$COMPQ +1.85%
$CAC +1.3%
$SPX +0.41%
$KOSPI +0.29%
$NIKK +0.02% 🐻
$DAX unch
$HSI -0.26%
$SSEC -0.6%
$CAC still leads +9.16% over 3 months
Good day, Friday!
#CPI +5.0% (biggest ↗️ since 8/08 - not a vintage year, btw) and the UST 10Y drops to 1.44%.
Market is discounting what may be a peak in growth and inflation.
Let's dig into the morning's early data...
#CPI +5.0% (biggest ↗️ since 8/08 - not a vintage year, btw) and the UST 10Y drops to 1.44%.
Market is discounting what may be a peak in growth and inflation.
Let's dig into the morning's early data...
Asian equities closed the week mostly ↗️
$NIKK 28949 unch
$SSEC 3590 -0.6% 🔻
$TWII 17214 +0.3%
$HSI 28870 +0.5%
$KOSPI 3249 +0.8%
$IDX 6095 -0.2% 🔻
Australia ↗️
$ASX 7312 +0.1%
India ↗️
$BSE 52512 +0.4%
$NIKK 28949 unch
$SSEC 3590 -0.6% 🔻
$TWII 17214 +0.3%
$HSI 28870 +0.5%
$KOSPI 3249 +0.8%
$IDX 6095 -0.2% 🔻
Australia ↗️
$ASX 7312 +0.1%
India ↗️
$BSE 52512 +0.4%
Europe trading ↗️
$DAX 15587 +0.1%
$FTSE 7125 +0.5%
$CAC 6575 +0.45%
$AEX 725 unch
$IBEX 9186 +0.55%
$MIB 25654 +0.05%
$SMI 11841 +0.25%
$MOEX 3841 +0.3%
$DAX 15587 +0.1%
$FTSE 7125 +0.5%
$CAC 6575 +0.45%
$AEX 725 unch
$IBEX 9186 +0.55%
$MIB 25654 +0.05%
$SMI 11841 +0.25%
$MOEX 3841 +0.3%
