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For the first time since the 1960s, there are 3 competitive political blocs largely along the old regional divides.

Hence the latest survey, which was commissioned by @EiENigeria and conducted by @sbmintelligence, did not provide us with a clear front-runner.
The first 2023 election survey conducted by SBM was published in July 2022 and showed that only 41% of registered voters had collected their Permanent Voters Cards (PVCs).

This assumption of low turnout fed into our December 2022 projections, based on a 7,000-respondent survey.
The assumption of low turnout changed when, in January 2023, our 6,500-respondent survey on PVC collection showed a remarkable increase in PVC collection - 97%.
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