Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #RateOfChange
Most recents (4)
September PPI Final Demand +0.4% MoM… last month MoM revised down to -0.2% MoM.. +8.5% YoY.
Core PPI +7.2% YoY v +7.3% YoY in August.
PPI Series Peaked in March 2022 at +11.7% YoY. Core CPI Series peaked in March at +9.7% YoY.
Inflation Deceleration continues..
Core PPI +7.2% YoY v +7.3% YoY in August.
PPI Series Peaked in March 2022 at +11.7% YoY. Core CPI Series peaked in March at +9.7% YoY.
Inflation Deceleration continues..
September CPI… +8.2% YoY vs a recent high of +9.1% YoY in June.
Core CPI +6.6% YoY took out +6.3% YoY high in March.. Core driven mainly by Rents… Rental Appreciation is BLS sticky… But in the Real World appreciation has been cut in 1/2 already.
Energy down big…
Core CPI +6.6% YoY took out +6.3% YoY high in March.. Core driven mainly by Rents… Rental Appreciation is BLS sticky… But in the Real World appreciation has been cut in 1/2 already.
Energy down big…
BLS OER Estimates are +6.7% YoY v +6.3% YoY in August…
OER Growth Rate is in a +2.78 Sigma Right Tail Bubble (data since 1984)…
We already know Rental Growth has been cut in 1/2 in September in the Real World.. Ask Sternlicht or Redfin.
Rental Bubble already popped..
OER Growth Rate is in a +2.78 Sigma Right Tail Bubble (data since 1984)…
We already know Rental Growth has been cut in 1/2 in September in the Real World.. Ask Sternlicht or Redfin.
Rental Bubble already popped..
LOL
People are exhausted - perhaps even inflation by natural extension. TBD.
Any #RateOfChange YoY on Inflation is fighting tough comps for the next 12 months.
Sure, maybe it goes higher with near term inertia….over time that’s not Repeatable Risk Management imho.
$XLF #Reflation
Sure, maybe it goes higher with near term inertia….over time that’s not Repeatable Risk Management imho.
$XLF #Reflation
Watching Fin TV just makes my head hurt.. it’s like nothing about fundamentals just stuff like Put/Call ratio ad nauseum.
... all Fed support... market propped up.. they just refuse to look at economic or earnings fundamentals... just take a look at .. or so many other cyclicals that are ratifying.. Retail Sales, PMIs, Housing HPI, Housing Starts, Mortg Apps, IP Up off trough (lag orders)...
.. Capex orders turning, U Michigan inflation exp up to 3+%. Jobless Claims declining substantially, Savings Rate 33->23% still high but speeding up, Commodities ripping, Inventory high but coming down... Look at this Chart! Geez..👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇
This is the economy👇👇👇👇👇👇
This is the economy👇👇👇👇👇👇
While the headline ADP number "beat", hardly anyone will point out that the growth rate decelerated to a 21 month low. #RateofChange
The growth rate in "goods" employment, according to ADP, has decelerated to a 27 month low.
The growth rate in "manufacturing" employment, according to ADP, has decelerated to a 24 month low.
