Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Riskoff

Most recents (3)

As you all know #deflation has been my theme for some time. It is obvious looking at charts like #Copper and #Oil. Here is #Oil. Ending Diagonal which will send Oil <23 USD during 2019/2020. This has been my call since top in 2018. It is >70% drop --> deflationary #HZupdates
#Copper shows same picture. #Deflation is coming. We are in wave 5 of C in expanding diagonal. Current bounce is wave 2 - will rally slightly higher - before major drop. I imagine this is what Powell starts getting indications on #HZupdates
Notice 2008 Q1-Q3 - during last deflationary phase. Fed had been tightening up to Sept. 2007 - and started lowering rates. BUT damage had been done to economy. World rolled over and #deflation /disinflation. It was from Q1-Q3 2008. #Copper plunged. Same situation now! #HZupdates
Read 22 tweets
#Equities #SP500 was rallying and the bulls are cheering. The excuse seems to be, that Powell has blinked. Remember 2007-09? Fed started lowering rates by September 07. Yet that did not prevent Financial markets to decline hard until March 2009 #HZupdates
The thing is, that when liquidity #crunch snowball gets rolling, some announcement from #Fed will not do the job. Down the line, Fed will need to scramble (QE or the like) to fight USD shortage. My LT #SP500 model remains like this. Major Bear market ABC-structure. #HZupdates
I will not reveal my EW-count for #SP500 here. That is reserved for subscribers and buyers of Weekly Update. Only say, that we have not seen an impulse wave since Sept high. I expect a MAJOR decline to set in rather soon, taking us to my bottom of wave A from LT-chart. #HZupdates
Read 17 tweets
Hi all πŸ˜€It has been a good year! 2019 will be difficult for world economy. A lot of fall outs ahead from disinflationary environment. Get ready for last #HZupdates from the old year πŸ‘
As I laid out at the beginning of 2018, we have seen a rally in #DXY. The USD rally is not over yet. I expect the rally to continuing into 2019 - reaching min. 107 before the rally is over, This will have deflationary consequences across various markets #HZupdates
#EURUSD topped early 2018 and has dropped to a low of 1.121 by Nov. But - this is not the end of this major Bear market for Euro. LT-target remains 0.91 likely to be reached by Q2/Q3 2019 #HZupdates
Read 16 tweets

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