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It is very unlikely that the largest companies today will keep up with the market to remain the largest into the future. These Mega Cap names tend to under-perform. This chart is a great visual of what history can teach us about how quickly these names can drift out of favor.
Also, here is a look at the number of Top 10 names that have historically drifted from the largest 10 over the next decade. The average in the U.S. has been around 6-7 on average.
#RobArnott referenced this fact in his recent Barron’s interview, and it’s one of the ways he point out that index funds tend to Buy High and Sell Low.
barrons.com/articles/rob-a…
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