Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Russia_Energy
Most recents (6)
#Russia_Energy: Putin's countermeasures against the Western oil price cap ($60 a barrel) are brought to life. Starting in February, the following actions will be mandatory: 1) Ministries of Energy and Finance will monitor the sale price of Russian oil;⤵️
2) The Ministry of Energy and Customs must prohibit the export of oil, if transport contracts with third countries indicate the use of a cap price; 3) Oil export contracts must be submitted to Customs and the Ministry of Energy with a copy of the Russian translation;⤵️
4) The Ministry of Energy will monitor and report monthly on non-alignment with the price cap by Russian exports. Russia sells at a discount of $35 to India and others (40% of the market price), this makes the price of Russian oil cheaper than the cap price.⤵️
#Russia_Energy: Most of Russia's seaborne crude goes to India, with China buying the largest volumes of Russian oil through pipelines. The redirection of oil supply to India does not mean that it will not reach the West in one way/form or another. India has increased imports⤵️
of Russian crude to 1.7 million barrels per day in Jan 2023 from 1.2 million in Dec 2022. This is possible in part because the US is buying 200,000 barrels of Russian oil refined in India. Apparently, Russia is offering India a $10 discount which would be⤵️
€10 million per tanker. Since the West is interested in buying Russian oil if it has been sufficiently processed to lose its Russian origin, India & China will keep buying the Russian oil to later sell its derivatives. Today, India is importing 30% of its oil needs from Russia.
#Russia_Energy: The EU has not yet decided which oil price cap should apply. There are three opinions: 1) Poland leads the group that advocates a cap below $65 per barrel; 2) Greece favors the $70 cap as it has a large shipping industry; 3) Most, including Germany, are ⤵️
targeting the $65 top price. Anyway, it is well known that Russian oil sells for up to 25% off or ~$65 per barrel. That means the $65 price ceiling will not hit Russia hard. However, with the EU embargo on Russian seaborne oil in place on Dec 5, Russia will have more trouble ⤵️
marketing its oil. In the event that the price rises due to market shortages (coordinated by Russia with OPEC+), Russian oil will continue to be sold with discounts. Market traders may ask for lower priced oil from Russia due to the risks of secondary sanctions for trading in it.
#Russia_Energy: While China is showing increased vigilance over secondary sanctions for importing Russian oil as the day of the embargo (Dec 5) approaches, India is acting in a riskier fashion. Indian companies have taken several steps (with state permission):⤵️
1) Indian Oil Corp and Nayara Energy refineries ordered oil from Russia beyond Dec 5th (when the EU imposes the embargo and the oil price cap is supposed to enter in force). Other Indian processors that used to buy Russian oil are more cautious and suspended⤵️
the imports for Dec. This speaks of the non-existent state regulation that imposes a single approach to the foreign sanctions regime; 2) Indian and Russian financial institutions have established compatibility mechanisms to approve Russian insurance for seaborne oil imports.⤵️
#Russia_Energy: The Northern Sea Route is being used by Russia to export oil to China. The Vasily Dinkov ship will arrive at the Chinese port on November 17. The first time a ship was sent was in 2019, but from this November, and even more so in the summer of 2023,⤵️
Russia will send even more ships. This route is a shortcut unlike the longer one through the Suez Canal. Land and sea routes are becoming congested due to Russia's trade decoupling from the EU and the reorientation towards China.⤵️
EU ports are closed to Russian ships as a result of the sanctions. Therefore, the use of the Arctic route can become a vital transport artery between Russia and Asia (China).
#Russia_Energy: The G7 has adopted a joint statement on Russia's energy geopolitics: 1) They condemned the Russian weaponization of energy; 2) It was recognized that the G7 is seeking a common position against the position of Russian as producer;⤵️
3) Common actions will be taken to mitigate the price increase caused by Russia, prompting the reduction of demand for Russian energy sources; 4) The G7 maintains its commitment to diversification and the guarantee of competitive markets;⤵️
5) In addition to decoupling from Russia on energy, the G7 is looking at ways to reduce Russia's revenue from exporting energy used for the war against Ukraine; 6) The total ban on services (transport, insurance) for the export of crude oil by Russian sea,⤵️
