Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Russia_Sanctions
Most recents (24)
#Russia_Sanctions: The G7 and the EU are considering sanctioning the importation of Russian gas pipelines and partly also the oil pipeline (Druzhba northern branch) to prevent EU states from changing their position in the future. This seems a kind of self-sanction based on⤵️
the logic that the EU has found enough alternative sources, including large volumes of LNG from the US. An exemption will be needed for the import of Russian pipeline gas through Ukraine (daily up to 43 mcm).
#Russia_Sanctions: Moscow has just announced that it will abandon its participation (compliance) in the grain agreement on May 18 if the following conditions are not met: 1) reconnect Rosselhozbank to Swift; 2) resumption of agrotech exports to Russia;⤵️
3) remove restrictions on insurance and access to ports; 4) resumption of ammonia supply by pipeline from Tolyati to Odesa; and 5) unfreezing of all assets of Russian companies that produce or transport agri-food.⤵️
This ultimatum will most likely be ignored, raising the level of uncertainty about the Ukrainian grain supply. Russia again seeks to involve the UN to advocate for a solution.
#Russia_Sanctions: Raiffeisen Bank is reflecting on what to do with its branch in Russia. There are two options: 1) Sell it to a Russian entity or one associated with a “friendly country”; or 2) to swap it with the assets of Sberbank Europe, which are frozen in the EU.⤵️
If the bank sells it, the price will be much lower than the market price. Signing a swap deal with Sberbank is also risky. Most likely, France or Italy will be against changing the sanctions regime, when their own banks have left Russia with huge losses. In this situation,⤵️
Raiffeisen Bank continues to absorb reputational costs by remaining in Russia, where its profits more than tripled in 2022 (€2.1 billion) compared to 2021 (€474 million). The bank ensures 25% of transactions from Europe to Russia and up to 30% in the opposite direction.⤵️
#Russia_Sanctions: The US has warned Georgia to avoid becoming involved in sanctions circumvention by Russia. Trade data shows Georgian export to Russia increased by more than 6% in 2022, this also includes re-export of passenger cars. Russian citizens opened 60,000 accounts⤵️
in Georgian banks. The total amount of remittances transferred from Russia to Georgia constituted $2.1 billion during 2022 (5-fold increase). Other indicators (migration, FDI, etc.) remained below the 2020-21 periods.
#Russia_Sanctions: Dutch prosecutors have launched 45 investigations into cases of sanctions evasion in favor of Russia. 29 cases refer to the control of exports and imports and the rest are in the field of financial sanctions. In the case of Belarus alone,⤵️
the Dutch side has carried out almost 350 checks on goods destined for Belarus with the aim of preventing re-export to Russia. The circumvention of sanctions through third countries, perceived by Russia as friendly, represents one of the weak points of Western sanctions.⤵️ 
The dynamics of third-country trade with the Netherlands and Russia is revealing. Under Dutch law, entities involved in violating the sanctions are punishable by 6 years in prison or €90,000 in fines.
#Russia_Sanctions: Russia's military potential is slowly degrading, with a lack of access to some 9,000 components for military equipments. With the adoption of the 10th EU sanctions package, there is more uniformity among Western nations. The following trends are to be watched⤵️
from now on: 1) An increased focus on export control of low technology (microchips that can be removed from electrical appliances in the kitchen); 2) extension of the classification of restricted dual-use goods for export to Russia; 3) application of financial sanctions to ⤵️
third countries that operate with Russian financial institutions (mainly from Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, the South Caucasus and Central Asia); 4) starving Russia financially though trade means (embargoes, high tariffs, etc.); 5) enforcing the sanctions and counter ⤵️
#Russia_Sanctions: The adoption of the 10th package faces a delay. The EU has wanted to turn it into a symbolic gesture before the commemoration of 1 year of the outbreak of Russian aggression against Ukraine (today): Here are some of the reasons:⤵️
1) Poland demands tougher sanctions instead of mimicry (especially with regard to the quotas on synthetic rubber); 2) Opposition to penalize Rosatom executives for fear that it could affect Russia's supply of civil nuclear technology (in previous attempts it was Hungary);⤵️
3) Reluctance to include Russian diamond producer Alrosa (Belgium is protecting its diamond industry in Atwerp).
#Russia_Sanctions: The re-technologization and localization of the production of supply chains appears to be part of Russia's adaptation strategy to Western sanctions related to the Russian aggression against Ukraine. The Russian govt has announced the intention to develop⤵️
manufacturing potential for the production of drones and components. For this, two financial instruments will be used: 1) Fund for the development of the manufacturing industry; and 2) the scholarship program that will be launched by the Agency for Technological Development.⤵️
State companies will encourage demand through tenders and using public funds. These efforts will take a couple of years and one of the main constraints is the lack of skilled labor (that did not exist in abundance or left the country during the mobilization in 2022).
#Russia_Sanctions: The Russian moms-to-be women are flocking to Argentina to give birth and obtain a different citizenship for their newborns. That would allow them and their husbands to acquire Argentine passports and visa-based access to 171 countries. According to⤵️
the latest figures, of the 10,500 Russians who entered Argentina, half were pregnant women. As a result of visa-related restrictions on Russian citizens by EU member states, the richest Russians left for Turkey and the United Arab Emirates. Those with lower incomes changed⤵️
residence to Armenia, Georgia and many Central Asian countries. Argentina represents an option for the upper class who is interested in non-golden visa options, which represents a more reliable option to remain in possession of a non-Russian citizenship.
#Russia_Sanctions: The Russian regulator and companies in the field of air transport claim that flying is safe in Russia. According to them, Airbus and Boeing planes from Russian companies will be operational without problems by 2030.⤵️
This implies “cannibalization” by replacing components from one plane to another. This terminology is rejected by the Russian side, which states that it would be a normal practice, also used in Soviet times. Western sanctions made the export of spare components unavailable to⤵️
Russian companies. If Russia fails to establish an import chain for aircraft parts by 2025, it could lead to further cannibalization. In the end, at least 30% of the aircraft will have to be put out of use.
#Russia_Sanctions: It seems that the ban on Russian diamonds is within the reach of the authors of the tenth package of sanctions. The EU wants to have it ready before February 24, when Russia has launched a full-scale war against Ukraine. However, there are two main obstacles.⤵️
1) Belgium is the largest importer of Russian diamonds in the EU and would agree to finally accept the ban if an international traceability mechanism is established. The West represents 70% of the diamond market. As in the case of oil, Russia could divert the supply to third ⤵️
countries that, after processing, can re-export it to the EU. 2) The regional govt where the Flemish nationalists are in power could veto Belgium's vote to ban diamonds. Flanders support the producers in Antwerp that refuse to lose Alrosa's import of raw materials from Russia.
#Russia_Sanctions: The US warned Turkey, the UAE and Oman with secondary sanctions if they continue to be involved in supplying dual-use items to Russia. The US is especially upset by the Turkish actions, which refer to services offered by Turkish companies to⤵️
Russian airlines using US planes. This overlaps with the Turkish boycott of NATO enlargement with regard to Sweden. Turkey is preparing for general elections in May and receiving acid comments from the West could favor Erdogan (AKP). ⤵️
However, if the West wants Ukraine's military efforts against Russia to succeed, it should be tougher on its own allies when it comes to circumventing sanctions. They should be reminded that there is no free lunch.
#Russia_Sanctions: There are two fundamental truths about the effectiveness of Western sanctions against Russia: 1) From the very beginning, the sanctions were aimed at changing Russia's behavior by raising the costs so that Russia could no longer continue the war. In this⤵️
sense, sanctions did not hit the the goal. The reasons are many, but the main ones are the interdependence of the global market in the supply of Russian energy and other basic products. Both Russia and the old world market order are in the process of restructuring;⤵️
2) Sanctions are no longer seen as something that can stop war due to the inherent limitations (mentioned in point 1). The role of sanctions from now on is to reduce Russia's ability to conduct war and give Ukraine more leverage to counter Russian aggression. In other words,⤵️
#Russia_Sanctions: As the day of the embargo approaches (in 3 weeks - December 5th), Russia will send its tankers to Asia to arrive before the sanction is active. The embargo implies that Russian oils prohibit insurance services, brokerage, etc. The European market will be⤵️
available only if Russia ships the oil below the maximum price to be set by the EU. The upcoming embargo will increase Russia's dependence on China and India that prefer discounts.⤵️
This inevitably leads to decreased revenue: oil export duty decreased by $31 million to $118 million and revenue fell by $4 million to $130 million in the last week to November 11.
#Russia_Sanctions: Critical means of transportation in Russia are rapidly becoming obsolete. Russian Railways calls for removal of sanctions. The company sent the request to the EU 3 months ago. It criticized the lack of response, ignoring the fact that the sanctions will last⤵️
until the war ends and the EU together with Ukraine decides the fate of the sanctions. The Russian company argues that it is applying discriminatory actions, with humanitarian effects, forgetting that it is still involved in the war against Ukraine, with thousands of⤵️
civilians killed. Millions of Russians, especially the most vulnerable, are among the hardest hit. The sanctions affected 24 regional passenger rail companies in Russia. In addition to export sanctions, European companies (Siemens, Talgo) cannot perform the technical⤵️
#Russia_Sanctions: The US has been assuring its banks that they continue to do business in Russia with critical companies that are exempt from sanctions. To minimize the negative effects of sanctions on food and energy prices, financial institutions such as Citibank & JP Morgan⤵️
were allowed to transact with Gazprom and Phosagro and Uralkali (fertilizers). On the other hand, the Russians themselves were using the “grains deal” also to put pressure on the EU to ease sanctions on Russian fertilizer producers and Rosselhozbank.⤵️
The adjustment of sanctions by the US and the EU is part of the logic of not harming themselves more than Russia. Since inflationary tendencies are also fueled to some extent by sanctions, revisiting the sanctions regime means making them⤵️
#Russia_Sanctions: It appears that the Russian side wants to use the UN to facilitate the lifting of restrictions on the Russian agri-food exports (probably fertilizers too). Due to the sanctions that the prohibition of access to EU ports entails (physical access,⤵️
ship insurance, banking transactions, etc.), Russian exports of grain and fertilizers would be affected (something that EU/Borrell has repeatedly denied). After rejoining the “grain deal” on Ukraine, Moscow indicated that a compromise had been reached (with Turkish mediation) ⤵️
on (opaque) negotiations with the EU to exempt Rosselhozbank and Russian ships exporting grain and fertilizers from sanctions. The new deadline given by Russia is November 18. On the other hand, the Russian aggression against Ukraine continues.
#Russia_Sanctions: The development of Russian trade with the West and the world has changed dramatically since the reality of the sanctions provoked by the Russian aggression on Ukraine emerged: 1) Russian exports to the UK, USA and Sweden fell by 35-79 %;⤵️
2) As the West sanctioned exports to Russia, while private companies decided to self-sanction, products from China and Turkey were able to quickly replace Western ones - China +24% and Turkey +113%;
3) On the other hand, Russian exports grew both to the West and to other regions: Belgium +130%, Spain +112%, the Netherlands +74% compared to India +430%, Turkey +213%, Brazil +166%. Thus, the sanctions clearly affect Western imports to Russia more than exports coming from it.
#Russia_Sanctions: By increasing imports of household appliences from Kazakhstan and Armenia, Russia is allegedly circumventing Western sanctions. The free movement of goods within the Eurasian Union guarantees Russia a continuous supply of Western-made refrigerators, washing⤵️
machines and electric breast pumps: 1) Kazakhstan imported 3 times more refrigerators from the EU than in 2021. The export of EU-made electric breast pumps to Kazakhstan soared by around 600% and to Armenia by 3 times (despite falling birthrates of 8.4% and 4.3% respectively);⤵️
2) On the other hand, the re-export of washing machines from Kazakhstan to Russia this year is worth $7.5 million. The volume of shipped refrigerators was 10 times higher; 3) Russia is reported to be using semiconductors extracted from civilian manufacturing to supply the⤵️
#Russia_Sanctions: Maintenance and technical servicing of Airbus aircraft used by Russian civil aviation cannot be guaranteed at an adequate level. Airbus management has raised concerns about the safety of the aircraft used in Russia. Due to the sanctions, Airbus is not ⤵️
able to monitor and offer a service to ensure the safe use of the aircrafts of its production. In May-June, Russian airlines were disassembling the aircraft to obtain the necessary components for the operational planes.⤵️
The lack of verification and proper technical upgrading increases the risks of catastrophes. Since most flights with Russian aircraft take place within Russia, the risks are largely limited to the Russian territory and population.
#Russia_Sanctions: Russian MinFin is asking for money from the National Welfare Fund (NWF) to finance the budget deficit. Two main expenses are causing this deficit: the failed aggression against Ukraine and the reduction in revenue due to Western sanctions. ⤵️
Therefore, the govt will earmark €16.5 billion (~1 trillion rubles) for budget needs at the end of 2022. The money will come from the NWF ($187.9 billion = 8.1% of GDP) and the govt can use up to 3.1 trillion rubles (52.1 billion euros) in 2022. At the same time, there is an ⤵️
avalanche of bad news for Russia: 1) The state has to subsidize the air transport sector with 1.6 billion euros; 2) Rusnefti's profits have been halved to ~600 million euros since the beginning of 2022;⤵️
#Russia_Sanctions: My proposal for the visa ban sanctions effervescently promoted in recent days: 1) several waves of visa bans starting with judges, prosecutors, etc. (all those who work for the Putin’s system);⤵️
2) the visa must not be restricted in any way for opposition journalists, persecuted NGOs, young people studying in the West with liberal backgrounds etc.;⤵️
3) no mobility restrictions for those in point 2 who are involved in permanent or temporary mobility within and outside the EU (involving transit countries);⤵️
#Russia_Sanctions: MFA Zakharova argues that the "grains deal" was negotiated as a package deal that would comprise the West's agreement to remove obstacles to Russian exports of agri-food and fertilizers. It is worth noting that Borrell repeatedly complained that ⤵️
the EU is unfairly blamed for the shortage of agri-food products on the world market and, after all, agreed that some adjustments in the sanctions regime are necessary to rule out any negative collateral effects of sanctions on agri-food supply. This was done ⤵️
as a result of the 7th sanctions package that exempted several Russian banks from financial sanctions. Apparently, Russia has high expectations of the revision of the sanctions to accommodate its willingness to remain in the "grain deal". ⤵️
#Russia_Sanctions: Today's FAC meeting did not bring the sixth energy package to fruition. Borrel has been quite dissatisfied when responding to journalists. He underlined the following: 1) Serbia is the only candidate state in the Western Balkans that does not align ⤵️
with the EU's foreign policy on Russian sanctions; 2) The EU does not have a cost compensation mechanism for the adherence to the sanctions of North Macedonia, which, on the other hand, has requested macro-financial assistance; ⤵️
3) Hungary's opposition against Russian Patriarch Kirill's sanction and the oil embargo are not interconnected. However, the deadlock in the adoption of new sanctions is related only/mainly to oil; 4) The Hungarian side raised technical and financial questions related to ⤵️
