Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Russia_mobilization
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#Russia_mobilization: The price of flights from Sochi to Armenia costs between 2,500 and 5,000 euros per ticket. The Russians paid up to 10,000 euros per ticket to leave on September 25. The borders are gradually closing for legal crossing (the last day is September 28).⤵️ 
After that, the fleeing Russians will likely try to escape by slipping through cracks in the Russian borders in Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and the borders with Finland, (too cold for crossing Norway), and the Baltic states.
So far, around 216,000 Russian men managed to flee the country after the partial mobilization was launched. They have withdrawn from their bank accounts and cards more than 2.3 billion euros (on average 8,800 euros per Russian who fled or intend to do so).
#Russia_mobilization: Some Russian economists argue that newly recruited Russian soldiers can survive at a rate of 35-50%. Drawing on this assumption, I outlined my working hypothesis explaining the factors behind the eventuality of low recruit survivability (THREAD):⤵️
1) I explain the survivability capacity of the new Russian soldiers recruited through the economic-educational nexus. 2) In short, if you are deciding to leave Russia (and you manage to achieve this goal despite all odds), this shows that you have a certain degree of income,⤵️
for which you need to be educated (there is no other way to find fast and efficient solutions to flee Russia). 3) Thus, those who leave are rather educated (and with means, which also includes life experience). 4) At the same time, relatively young recruits (who joined the⤵️
#Russia_mobilization: Russian men eligible for partial mobilization have 3 options: 1) enroll; 2) protest and go to jail (where they can be forcibly recruited) or 3) flee (this is a way of deserting the army). There, Western decision-makers & the think tank are split in two:⤵️
one part rejects any support for the fleeing Russian men, and the other takes the approach of openness. An important nuance is that the geographical and historical proximity of the countries to Russia makes them more reluctant to embrace the Russian anti-mobilization men.⤵️
My personal point of view is explained through 5 lenses: 1) Objective perception of political-military reality: Russians fleeing are motivated by survival, but that also means that they objectively assess developments on the battlefield, which which seems negative for Russian⤵️
