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A new paper from @mrcZA and @uct_news published today by the #SAMJ, looking at unnatural deaths, alcohol restrictions, and curfew.
A (longish) thread, explaining what we did - and did not - find. Paper, open access, available here: samj.org.za/index.php/samj…
A (longish) thread, explaining what we did - and did not - find. Paper, open access, available here: samj.org.za/index.php/samj…
2/We use data for 68 weeks, from early 2020 to mid-April 2021 (the paper was submitted in early May).We then categorise each week by the nature of alcohol restrictions, and duration of curfew, in force based on the changing sequence of lockdown regulations. >fig1<
3/The expected deaths are derived from the collaboration's mortality surveillance system. We then proceed to model the excess unnatural deaths each week, to remove effects associated with (e.g.) month ends, with covariates of alcohol restriction and categorical curfew duration.
