Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #SPUT

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$ today closed at A$1.29; A$193M MC a 2Y low.
The last time it traded at that level was Aug 2021 right before #uranium market took off because of #SPUT $U.un

Short 🧵 about a piece of the 🧩 investors might be missing that is not (directly) related to uranium
Many investors forgot that on 5/19/2022 @BannermanEnergy $ acquired a strategic stake in Namibia Critical Metals $NMI.v
BMN owns 42% of the company's shares now.

@BannermanEnergy NMI closed an agreement with Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security (JOGMEC) that will provide for enough capital to develop the project. Important in current times of high inflation/interest rates

Read 12 tweets
Which US power generation operators will be short of supply over the next 12 months, likely <3%, 24 months <15% and 48 months <25%. How much near term spot buying will this cause? 1mlbs over 3m, 5mlbs over 12? What's the spare capacity in non-Russian sources over 24m? #uranium
Let's recap annual #uranium spot market supply:

A) Producer sellers 15mlbs incentive to price
B) Inventory which will appear for every +$3-5 move = likely 1-2mlbs

So to clear out the +$3-5 offer in a single month around 2-3mlb pounds would need to be purchased.
Over 3 months to achieve a +$10-15 move likely 10-13mlbs #uranium would need to be purchased = $600m capital required.

Now the buy side:
#Sput if in mojo land it could by 5mlbs over 3 months
Other Funds: 2mlbs over 3m

So certainly up to another 5mlbs would need to be absorbed
Read 3 tweets
I've followed Cameco $CCJ $CCO.TO since 2015 and I consider it the poster child for a value trap.

The company had a terrible time enforcing long-term agreements signed pre-Fukushima, with Japan's Tepco walking out of a $1.3 billion long-term…
#uranium purchase agreement for 9.3 million pounds at a contracted price of $140/lb. Cameco sued for $700 million, won the two-year long legal battle, and was awarded $40.3 million in damages, or a mere 3.1% of TCV.…
As a direct result of this loss of a home for their produced uranium, the company had to shutter Rabbit Lake and McArthur River at significant expense. Worse, the pounds that Tepco had already purchased at $140/lb found their way into the spot market. Along with selling by other
Read 23 tweets
#uranium return run down from recent lows assuming #sput can drive the next up leg by a reasonable premium for 1 to 3 months: sector returns +50- 75%

Best in class Explorers <25m caps =+150-250%

Best in class Project Developers <125m cap = +100-175%

Pure ETFs +50-75%
Note new entrants into the #uranium ETFs for Sept and April for extra torque, watch for caps above US$50m not in the ETFs yet.
Combined ETF new entry often equates to 5-7% of issued shares for a nano #uranium stock this can be transformational given the short rebalancing timeframes.

Often, in bull market conditions the 2 month returns prior to entry can be 50-100% on triple ETF entry.
Read 4 tweets
Some Friday ramblings
Recession is here. $WMT, $COST, $TGT all prevaricated their way around shoddy earnings - it was freight! Cost inflation! Food & fuel!
In their declining sales you see the elasticity of discretionary consumption. Prices are high and going higher - the Fed will wreak havoc on financial assets but real carbon shortages (PADD 1 distillate is particularly grim) won't be tamed by 50 bps
The Fed has not been shy about their intentions. "The neutral rate might be 3.6% and we won't hesitate to hike higher" or Bill Dudley former Fed pres '18 openly waffling in BBG about how asset prices need to drop to spur an inverse wealth effect
Read 16 tweets
#Uranium: It’s different this time?
Some thoughts on why I think that taking the last uranium bull market too literally will likely lead to missing out on returns during the most lucrative time in the cycle. However, cyclicality still applies and scaling in & out is important 🧵
1/ “It’s different this time” are regarded as the most dangerous words in #finance used by Wall Street to trick investors into bubble equities that they should sell, not buy. #fintwit
2/ I list some reasons below why #uranium might very well be the exception to the rule and really be different this time. Moreover, I believe focusing on the last uranium bull run 04-07 will lead to false analysis ➡️ missing out on gains
Read 10 tweets
Facts=facts.There can be many reasons for US utility #uranium inventory being at 16months of consumption on average &EU utility inventories at 2y of consumption.They are too low &they can’t run reactors without it,no room to consume more inventory—>EUP & UF6 restocking now!(1/7) ImageImage
&where are they going to get more #U3O8 in SHORT TERM?
By consuming more #uranium inventory while having lost backing of carrytraders,US & EU utilities have cornered themself. $DNN $UUUU $URG $UEC $BOE,you are about to have many calls from utilities for your U3O8 stockpile (2/7) ImageImage
80$/lb isn’t even an #uranium price driven by speculation anymore! Due to much higher working cost prices, 80$/lb became the new 60$/lb. 80$/lb is the new price needed by higher production cost producers to make a profit now!
(3/7) #U3O8 $URNM $YCA $U.UN
Read 10 tweets
Friday was a very weird day in #SPUT land.

Thursday rebalance pushed it way over NAV and Friday traded as if the ATM didn't exist.

Typically there are 2 types of bullish days:

1. Open at large premium and sell back to NAV
2. Push higher and get pegged at a price level
Both 1 and 2 would suggest a decent two way market.

Either there are enough sellers to fade the move. Or, there are enough sellers that Sprott can eventually fill 100% of the offer volume at a given price and peg it there for a few hours.

We did neither of those.
Instead we pushed higher and ended up raising a lot of money given the volume.

The only explanation I have is that there simply weren't any sellers, other than the ATM.

Sprott couldn't peg the price as they can only be 60% of the volume, so there were no sellers taking profits.
Read 4 tweets
Thank you to @BloorStreetCap for yesterday's insightful #uranium discussion with some of the pioneers of the industry. A fantastic line up with in depth insight into all aspects of the #uranium sector.

Some of our highlights can be found the the thread below:
1/ “The world is recognising the science of nuclear power, not the false ideology.” – #NexGen CEO

“Price of #equities is screaming buy relative to the #spot price” – @uraniuminsider

“We’re on the cusp of a really really big move here [spot price]” – @UraniumEnergy
2/ #Sprott are seeing growing #institutional and #FO interest in the #uranium space. Very early stages of broad adoption by generalist #investors. Ciampaglia believes we are ‘just starting the second inning of this uranium cycle’.
Read 12 tweets
First, utilities will contract as much as possible with the big producers: Kazatomprom, Cameco, Orano, Navoi Mining, Uranium One. And they will try to diversify over different producers & different regions for security of supply reasons. (1/4) #uranium #U3O8 $URNM #SPUT
The last #uranium pounds available for sale from those big producers will be contracted at higher prices than the first pounds bought from them. (2/4) #U3O8 #SPUT $URNM
Second, utilities will look for additional #uranium lbs from tier2 producers like Paladin Energy ( $PDN.AX ), $URG, $UUUU, ( $PENN.AX is an exception,they already have LT contracts)... & well advanced developers (Global Atomic ( $GLO.TO $GLATF ), $DNN, $VMY.AX, ...) (3/4) #U3O8
Read 5 tweets

Zooming out to bigger picture for #uranium follows.

Ok, so we got a 30% correction at hand in $URNM, 28% $URA. Many of the underlying equities are starting to see 40-50%+ corrections.

Few basic causes ->

#SPUT has been unable to buy enough physical from spot market to lift price, not because of Sprott, but because us market participants who control the share price through supply and demand, havent agreed on pushing and keeping the price in high enough premium.

Broad market was looking very thin on top. Breadth was and still is thin and almost nonexistent. Only few of the leaders are keeping indices afloat.
Read 10 tweets
#uranium #SPUT $CCJ $SRUUF

1.) I see that a lot of new(er) investors in uranium don't have a clear picture of who the main players in this space are... and in times of massive downside vol, it usually is better to be aware than not...
#uranium #SPUT $CCJ $SRUUF

2.) Apart from the usual suspects that are easy to find like juniors, producers, etc. and #Sprott, there are some truly huge entities that play in this space -- certain banks and comm. traders that had a really nice thing going for some near 5-6 years
#uranium #SPUT $CCJ $SRUUF

3.) I've looked into the space for the last 4 years, mostly trading in and out--why? In commodities, the side with the most $ usually wins. Not the people with the best thesis, not the most knowledgeable. It doesn't mean you can't make good $ long
Read 10 tweets
#SPUT block party going on today.

All on the bid, so probably nothing.

If someone wants to confirm the brokers, feel free to let us know. I don't have access to that data.
#uranium Image
If they are just crosses it means todays volume is basically useless in predicting how much will be raised.
Of course, other than the fact that we can now sell 2x daily volume and only fall ~1%.

Not bearish!
Read 3 tweets
Just touched down in Savannah, GA for the @NEI International #Uranium Fuel Seminar, the #nuclear industry’s first in person conference in almost two years. Should be an interesting few days… stay tuned for updates!
Pretty direct messaging from Kazatomprom $KAP to kick things off. Major focus on security of supply and the need for committed long term contracts to drive #uranium production decisions. ImageImage
$CCJ follows with a similar theme - where are the pounds going to come from? Talking about long term market health, incentive structures, risk adjusting future supply assumptions and issues with prod cost comparisons. Know @FootnotesFirst is going to like the title… ImageImage
Read 9 tweets
1) Cantor Fitzgerald reaffirms their Buy Rating with US$32/C$40 Price Target🎯 for Cameco $CCJ $CCO as #Uranium Sentiment Continues to Improve 🤠🐂 with term U prices heading higher⬆️ & offers up their key takeaways🥡 from Q3 Results Conference Call👨‍💻 #Nuclear #mining #ESG🏄‍♂️ ...2
2) "macro setup for #Uranium, and by extension Cameco, is exceptional"😃 as "some urgency" towards long-term contracting returns😟as #SPUT in thin Spot market is killing carry trade⚰️ & Q3 Long-Term #U3O8 price is Up $10 +28%⬆️ but still "early innings" in contracting cycle⚾️...3
3) Cantor provides their view on @Sprott Physical #Uranium Trust as its Spot #U3O8 purchases are "permanently sequestered."🔒 Cameco is not interested in launching its own U fund as Kazatomprom is doing with ANU Energy & world's largest U mine restart is a mid-decade event😲.../4
Read 4 tweets

At any given moment in a market cycle it can be very educational to think, who and with what goals does the current action benefit the most?

#uranium #SPUT #u308 #investing

We just had extended highs as the SPUT caused the spot rise through the feedback loop. As the SPUT lost the premium, due whatever reason, the rally stalled and started losing steam causing a reverse in equities.

After the highs, think who distributes and who accumulates, and on which side of the market, physical or equities?
Read 10 tweets
If you havent watched #Cameco’s CFO, Grant Isaac's present talk with Canaccord Genuity, you should.

$CCJ #SPUT #Sputt #Uranium
Some of what I took away below:
-Glowing coverage of Sprott's Sput.
-New mines should not come online to sell into spot
-Japan's inventory is stationary.
-A couple of Utility RFPs in the market, let's see how they play out.
- "KAZ said their was little demand in 22-23" is a misquote.
- A producer sold term contracts at $45. Not a concern. BTW, it wasn't CCJ, it was probably a spot-exposed producer. Good that it's out of the way and not competing (it's a couple 100K pounds).
Read 14 tweets
1/ Some brief thoughts on $SPUT / $U-U and why it trading lower on today's open is a good thing for #uranium -- Yesterday's daily update showed that #Sprott did not purchase material or issue units.
2/ This confounded some investors, given the close to 30% premium of the vehicle...

There is a simple explanation: While updating an ATM, it is common to have limitations on market activities.
3/ While the new base shelf prospectus hit Friday, the company did not file an updated sales agreement and confirm the ATM until post close yesterday (see attached).
Read 8 tweets

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