Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #SR20

Most recents (6)

I’ve read some utter tosh on the state of the UK public finances in the last few days. Here's an attempt to correct some of the biggest misunderstandings.

Most importantly, government debt does not have to be ‘repaid’, only serviced... (1/19)

#SR20 #SpendingReview #RishiSunak
As long as the government can meet the interest payments (I’ll discuss the risks here later), maturing debt can simply be rolled over. (2/19)
This is what usually happens. The last time the UK ran a budget surplus was in 2000-01, since when public debt has increased by more than £1,700 billion. (3/19)
Read 19 tweets
FWIW, I’ve been comparing my UK economic forecasts with those of the #OBR. There is a much more positive story than the Chancellor told in Wednesday’s #SpendingReview #SR20 📢

Let’s start with the near-term outlook… (1/8)
The #OBR assumes that the economic impact of #lockdown2 will be ‘three-fifths’ that seen during the first lockdown, when #GDP fell by 25% in March and April. This means that lockdown2 would take the level of #GDP back to 15% below its pre-Covid peak… (2/8)
Given that #GDP was 8.2% lower in September than February, and assuming little change in October, this is consistent with a fall of around 7% m/m in November, which is what’s in the #OBR’s ‘central forecast’. This seems about right to me... (3/8)
Read 8 tweets
Local Housing Allowance (temporarily put back up to 30th percentile during pandemic) will be frozen in cash terms from April 2021 - meaning it will fall back below 30th percentile over time #SR20
Budget red book seems to confirm that plus end of £20 a week increase in universal credit introduced at the same time
OBR report makes clear that 'maintain in cash terms thereafter' means freeze
Read 9 tweets
1/ Today’s Spending Review delivers on the priorities of the British people.

This thread covers 𝘀𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗸𝗲𝘆 𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀 from Departments across Government. #SR20
2/ This Spending Review delivers a historically high @UKHomeOffice budget which will help them to keep people safe and deliver new border and immigration arrangements. #SR20
3/ We’re providing over £76 billion for @educationgovuk to meet the government’s commitment to level up education standards across the country and drive economic growth through improving the skills pipeline; levelling up productivity and supporting people into work. #SR20
Read 13 tweets
Chancellor announces initial £18bn directly for testing, PPE, vaccines next year #SR20
11.3% fall in the economy this year forecast for this year... (largest for three centuries) growing by 5.5% next year, 6.6% in 2022, then 2.3%, 1.7% and 1.8% in the following years...

By 2025 economy expected to be 3% smaller than expected in MArch #SR20
Government borrowing £394bn this year says forecast - that is 19% of GDP for this one year’s borrowing...

Not far off the official figure four the entire historic national debt in 1990 at 21%
Read 11 tweets
A few big picture points to keep in mind as we listen to Rishi Sunak's #SpendingReview -
1. Successive Conservative governments have spent a decade levelling down the UK. Today's spending plans are an admission that they have taken us down the wrong road and caused damage #SR20
2. Any plans to level up the UK will fail without a proper strategy for poverty eradication, tackling low pay & job insecurity & redistribution of power. More on this in @CLASSthinktank recent publication here…
3. Any comparison between private & public sector pay is like comparing apples & oranges. Public sector pay freezes hurt the recovery under Osborne. Feels like groundhog day for those of us trying to rebut these arguments a decade ago, frustrating that gov still doesn't get it
Read 9 tweets

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