Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #SecularStagnation

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How do major pandemics affect economic activity in the longer term? My colleagues (Òscar Jordà, Alan Taylor) and I have a new working paper where we answer this question.

#coronavirus #COVID19 #CoronavirusPandemic #BlackDeath #SpanishFlu #SecularStagnation #NaturalRate

1/5
Findings consistent with what economic theory prescribes? Yes. Real returns down, real wages up….

Paper here: ssingh.ucdavis.edu/uploads/1/2/3/…

2/5
We study rates of return on assets using a dataset stretching back to the 14th century, focusing on 12 major pandemic episodes where more than 100,000 people died. We estimate the impulse response of the European real natural rate to a pandemic episode up to 40 years out

3/5
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