Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Skininthegame

Most recents (24)

1. Será que quanto mais #SkinInTheGame melhor?

Você visita 3 gestores de ações.

Os 3 são igualmente competentes, estão neste mercado há muito tempo; têm equipes parrudas, experientes, trabalhando juntos há muito tempo também.
2. O estilo de gestão é similar, o passivo está bem diversificado e a performance é irritantemente parecida.

Há, entretanto, uma única questão que dissonante entre eles:
3.
Gestor A tem 99% do patrimonio pessoal investido no próprio fundo
Gestor B tem 90%
Gestor C tem 80%

Você só pode escolher um. Qual deles você escolhe?

Naturalmente, você escolheria o de 99 por cento, certo? Afinal, é o cara mais comprado no que faz.
Read 13 tweets
Robert @financequant kicking off #RWRI today with 180 years of drawdowns 📉

He is surprised how no one else has looked into this, especially that far back

There is this myopia, this attitude that looking that far back doesn’t have anything to do with us
As Robert says, the math is not very complicated

And he went into this fully expecting to find more stability, because we have all these wonderful tools now

What is a drawdown? If you lose 10%, you need to gain 11% to make back the money
What drawdowns are: two simple variables

How long and how deep
Read 19 tweets
This whole Neo Hinduism hocus pocus is what I call a classical category error. The problem with all these problems stems from trying to fit Indic Darshanas into the Abrahamic paradigm. Another reason why I don't call myself an atheist. It is a category error.
The natural evolution of Darshanas in India & their interaction over the centuries is very different from the evolution of Abrahamic faiths. But the global academic orthodoxy uses their terminologies. We have to explain our Darshanas using our terms & only one lens (evolutionary)
The moment you unclutter your mind with this epistemic problem you see things clearly. It's just creating a switch in your brain. When you discuss Abrahamic religions you use their methods and when you use your Darshanas you use your terms.
Read 10 tweets
1. DESIGUALDADE VS DESIGUALDADE

O livro "Arriscando a própria pele" do Nassim Taleb é uma obra de arte. Fica muito claro como #skininthegame funciona, e pq certos tipos de gente odeiam esse conceito. Recomendo todos a ler com calma. O capítulo 7, em específico é excepcional.
2. Transcrevo algumas partes, para se pensar:

Há desigualdades e desigualdades.

A primeira é a desigualdade que as pessoas toleram, por exemplo, o entendimento de um indivíduo comparado ao de pessoas consideradas heróis - digamos, Einstein, Michelangelo...
3. ... ou o recluso matemático Grisha Perelman. Não é difícil reconhecer a superioridade deles. Isso se aplica a empresários, artistas, soldados, heróis, Bob Dylan, Sócrates, o atual chef-celebridade local, algum imperador romano de boa reputação, a exemplo de Marco Aurélio;
Read 37 tweets
@BretWeinstein @David_S_Wilson Caro Bret,
This explanatorizing is mired in 1960s Mickey-Mouse verbalisms devised by British (possibly drunk) naive statisticomaniacs.

Because of scaling, arguments for the survival of individual(s)≠survival of groups. So you need to explain groups qua groups.

@yaneerbaryam
@BretWeinstein @David_S_Wilson @yaneerbaryam In other words:
+ Studying the psychology of individuals will never allow you to understand that of the market (determined by extremes, not sum).
+ Rationality for indiv. does not translate into "rationality" for group.
Saying it the way it is:

Evolutionary biologists are dumb.
Read 4 tweets
1. Manual do "expert" de mercado perdedor:

- Não se exponha no mercado, assim fica a dúvida se vc é bom, e ñ terão certeza de q vc é na prática ruim. Ñ tenha #skininthegame;

- Repita sempre q no o bull market todo idiota ganha dinheiro;
2.

- No bear market diga q estava na cara q iria cair, q havia muita gente despreparada no mercado;

- Seja irônico, escroto, fale difícil e mande as pessoas pararem de passar vergonha qdo falam c/ uma espécie tão superior qto vc;
3.

- Cite milhões de livros e bibliografias, mas nunca revele uma única nota de corretagem, senão vc enterra a sua reputação;

- Tire sarro daquilo q vc gostaria de ser, se preocupe mais com o formalismo e títulos, do q c/ o resultado;

- Na falta de argumentos, mande estudar.
Read 3 tweets
1/ Skin in the game?

Financial industry talks their head off about stocks, bonds, gold, small caps tech, growth stocks...

...but after you ask them what’s their biggest net worth allocation, 99% of them tell you it’s their house & private business selling you research.
2/ They all claim they eat their own cooking but really... their portfolio looks like this:

60-70% real estate (home) which isn’t even producing cashflow because they live there

20-30% private equity (partner / owner of a small business)

0-10% index funds, cash, etc
3/ So where is the skin in the game? Where is your risk? If you’re so sure about the stock market doing well next few years, or to the contrary, emerging markets collapsing — why don’t you sell your house and bet on it?

After all, you’re selling me your ideas.
Read 10 tweets
1/ Recent threads I've written all of which contain bits & pieces on general investing, real estate, short term trading, investor psychology, risk management, asset allocation, personal finance & general steps to wealth accumulation.
2/ Psychology of investing, the mindset necessary to become successful in this game and all the common traps & biases investors face.

3/ The four key pillars necessary to become a consistently profitable day trader and outperform the index in any market environment.

Read 12 tweets
"..the art of adventuring is not dying"

“Climbing is all about freedom, the freedom to go beyond all the rules and take a chance, to experience something new, to gain insight into human nature… For me, imagination is more important in climbing than muscle or daredevil antics.”
#skininthegame

"... anventuring... only if you are on your own, you carry all your responsabilities.."

"..sport is not adventure"

“Adventure has to do with private, personal experiences,”
Adventure implies difficult, dangerous (nature is dangerous) and the most important thing is exposure, you most very far away of any possibility in case of emergency... then you will live as humans beings i million years ago...
Read 4 tweets
And year after year the rich are different. #ergodocity
Anyone who does not distinguish between wealth generation via risk taking and rent-seeking will be blocked here. CEOs are rent seekers --so are B-School types. Innovators and entrepreneurs are risk-takers. Small business owners are risk-takers.
We need risk takers.
#Skininthegame
Practically, any CEO who "rose through the ranks" is competent at being an actor. No exception.

Entrepreneur or nothing.
Read 4 tweets
The press is gloating over the fact that Trump lost more than a billion in 80-90s.
IYIs don't get that it is what got him elected: losing money (your own, not others) makes you real, unlike some lifeless hack.
Life is risk taking. (Passage from #SkininTheGame)
There are many areas to focus on if you are after Trump: mainly the relationship with Saudi Barbaria and the fact that he bans Iranians not Saudis from coming here when it is the Saudis who are the terrorists.
Not his losses.
Shaming an entrepreneur for losing money is like shaming a veteran for losing a hand.

The acroparasites in the press are insulting the entrepeneurs the risk takers that are paying for their daily bread!
Read 4 tweets
RENT SEEKERS
We need to make pple aware that discontent related to inequality is mainly discontent about rent seeking and rent seekers.

Prevent rent seekers from exploiting this discontent by making it look like society need more IYIs like them to solve it.

#GiletJaunes
The problem isn't inequality, it's RENT SEEKERS without skin in the game.
medium.com/incerto/inequa…
3) Easy to deconvert someone from State worship via Martin Luther's argument that "God & clergy are different "tings"". Show them that bureaucrats-cronies-nudgeboys-virtue merchants & "State" aren't the same "ting" & "the State is among us".
Keep the State distributed!
#Localism
Read 7 tweets
1. "The curse of modernity is that we are increasingly populated by a class of people who are better at explaining than understanding, or better at explaining than doing."
- Nassim Nicholas Taleb

É ou não é assim mesmo na maioria das vezes que lemos algum especialista opinando?
2. "You can define a free person precisely as someone whose fate is not centrally or directly dependent on peer assessment."
- Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Há uma atividade profissional q se não tiver peer validation, não existe. Sem os colegas darem ok, nada feito. Isso é liberdade?
3. "If you do not take risks for your opinion, you are nothing."
- Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Essa é clássica. Talk is cheap.
Read 7 tweets
People don't know their preferences: they think they like large houses, but prefer to huddle in small spaces over large empty silent rooms.
Never ask pple what they "like", watch what they do. #Skininthegame
wsj.com/articles/a-gro… via @WSJ
If you explicitly understand what you *really* like, you have a yuuuge advantage in life. γνῶθι σεαυτόν
When people get rich, they start follow the constructed preferences by the marketing industry, get hoodwinked into complicated lives... then, if they are lucky, give up.

medium.com/incerto/only-t…
Read 3 tweets
1. Sabe pq o Mantega ficou 8 anos no governo e um gestor de recursos q vai mal em bem menos tempo do q isso roda, sai do jogo ou é demitido? Pq o 1o não tem #skininthegame, e o 2o tem. Precisa explicar ou provar isso pra entender?
2. Sabe pq o mesmo cientista político q errou todas as previsões nessa eleição continuará comentando na próxima eleição? Pq ele não tem #skininthegame. Quem corre riscos reais p/ cada decisão tomada, perdendo ou ganhando de verdade, se erra ou acerta, sabe do q estou falando.
3. Sobre Taleb:

“Idiosyncratically brilliant.” - Niall Ferguson

“The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.” - Daniel Kahneman

-----

Pessoalmente acho o cara um mal educado, mas assertivo.
Read 6 tweets
Today #RWRI 10, we discuss:
How the "calibration" ranking by BS Vendor @juliagalef is not even wrong

1) In real life, you shb be calibrated in payoff space, not in frequency space. Someone right 80% abt Russian Roulette won't survive, option traders can be right ~1%
#ergodicity
2) Which is the idea of #skininthegame as a filter. The ONLY filter.

Verbal predictions do not map to anything real, as they penalize those wrong most of the time in skewed payoffs and favor bureaucrats who optimize in frequency space.

Survival=calibration.
Lookup the story In Fooled by Randomness about the trader who thinks the market is "more likely to go up", yet is very heavily short.
Read 5 tweets
Mesopotamia

Invented Metallurgy, Agriculture, Writing, Sailing, theWheel, Chemisty, Pharma, Astronomy, LAW,(co)algebra, Algor, Calendar, Maps, Metrics...

Maintained techno superiority for 4600/5000y of history.

So fraudster @stefanmolyneux now arbiter of their inferior "IQ".
#SkinintheGame dictates not talking about an idea (such as #SkinintheGame) shallowly, w/o a deep investment, here is my recitation of Hammurabi's code in ancient Babylonian (Akkadian) w/proper Semitic gutturals.

Yes, I know enough Babylonian to argue Molyneux is a fraud in it.
This inbreading/cousin marriage theory is another crackpot by IQ-genes-race pple who NEED to find genetic (not cultural) degradation.

First effect of inbreeding is systematic diseases. & you see MORE among Ashkenazis so stop the IQ link & crank-science.

Read 10 tweets
"IQ" THREAD

"IQ" measures an inferior form of intelligence, stripped of 2nd order effects, meant to select paper shufflers, obedient IYIs.

1- When someone asks you a question in REAL LIFE, you focus first on "WHY is he asking me that?", which slows down. (Fat Tony vs Dr John)
2- It takes a certain type of person to waste intelligent concentration on classroom/academic problems. These are lifeless bureaucrats who can muster sterile motivation.

Some people can only focus on problems that are REAL, not fictional textbook ones.
3- Look at the hordes with "high IQ" (from measurement) who are failures in real world rather than the ~50% correlation between IQ and success in 1) salaried employment, 2) jobs that select for edjukashion.

Yuuge survivorship bias.

37 out of 38 PhDs in finance blew up in 1998!
Read 34 tweets
There has been an epidemic of generalizing every tiny individual & particular conflict in life into something large & systemic, tied to "exploitation", "race", "gender", "colonialism", & ancestral "privilege".

Same pple view the world top-down & see benefits in centralization.
3- There is a category of bubblegumheads (say @jaketapper ) who not only overgeneralize but misgeneralize on top: say turning the pullout in Eastern Syria as a US vs Putin.
Quite insulting for the citizens there with #skininthegame
Read 3 tweets
The problem is architects building structures to impress other architects --but plumbers don't act on impressing other plumbers.

Any activity where agents impress peers (architects, academia) rather than satisfying the needs constituents ends up rotting.

#SkininTheGame
There is an additional problem with architects and modernity: reduction in the fractal dimensions of our world.

medium.com/incerto/surgeo…
2- Ancestral architecture: no Euclidian geometry, high dimensionality. Even pyramids when close show rich micro-patters (Met in NYC).
Today's architecture is "smooth", Eucledian, & of low dimensionality.

I am most comfortable in a forest, a cave, or a Gaudi bldg.
Read 4 tweets
1- Ignore surveys.

Pple think they prefer restaurants 1) quiet so they can tawk, 2) roomy, 3) no line.

Yet they flock to 1) loud, 2) cramped restaurants 3) w/50 min wait.

Never ask pple what they want, watch what they do. Revelation of preferences.

#SkinInTheGame
2- How to make a survey work by via negativa.

To assess if a book will survive, find an academic/someone who plays the system. If they say "well organized", "well written", or "original", odds are the book flops.

If they say "messy", "whimsical", the book will outlive him/her.
3- Current bibles: The Bible, Wealth of Nations, Das Kapital, Works by Aquinas, Montaigne, etc. They fail editorial criteria.

Editors don't understand books, Academics don't get scholarship. Why?

@rorysutherland : employees' objective is minimizing blame in case of failure.
Read 3 tweets
My lecture at the conference Dec 10-11 in NY will be exactly why statements like this one by @PTetlock are total BS.

Why forecasting without #SkinintheGame is nonsense, how to be rich you need to be a "bad" forecaster.

mcompetitions.unic.ac.cy

@spyrosmakrid
Except for that hitch they were great forecasters

My lecture at M4 (thread) explains why such statements by @PTetlock (and his work) on forecasting are total BS and how they worsen with fat tailedness.
Read 5 tweets
THE AGING OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES

I've had a Tesla for 17 months, 13K miles. Not a single problem. Maintenance: only parts that experienced wear/tear were the windshield wipers.

The press represents PR from oil lobbies.

Electric cars don't age as fast as regular cars.
This property (electric cars don't age fast) I had noticed in the comparative price of used cars ("refurbished"). Logically, on average, the fewer the moving parts, the fewer the problems: not a lot of entropy.
Tesla might not be a flawless diamond, but you could smell a smear campaign by the usual culprits, the propaganda machine for middlebrow called the New York Times, heavily compromised in its subservience to Saudi Barbaria/Oil lobbies.

theguardian.com/technology/201…
Read 6 tweets
Le agenzie di #rating.
Vediamo di analizzare qualche punto, dato che il loro impatto sull'economia italiana non è irrilevante, che Salvini e Di Maio lo vogliano/credano o no.
1. Sono imparziali?
Lo speranza è che lo siano, studi empirici e la pratica dicono che non è proprio così al 100%, ma la situazione dopo la crisi del 2007-2008 è migliorata. In questo caso va dato atto alla regolamentazione di aver fatto qualcosa di buono.
Però, dal non essere perfettamente imparziali (come voi coi vostri figli), all'essere completamente corrotti ce ne passa. Anche se i media si concentrano su Moody's, S&P e Fitch (le 3 maggiori), va detto che le agenzie minori condividono quasi sempre il giudizio delle più grandi.
Read 19 tweets

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