Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Stagflation

Most recents (24)

🧵 Our Thoughts On $SPY :

1. Over May, the S&P 500 rose 0.87%, primarily driven by valuations. Earnings expectations & valuations contributed 0.13% & 0.74% to the 0.87% rise in markets. Below, we show the sequential evolution of market prices, along a decomposition: Image
2. Over the last year, the S&P 500 has been dominantly driven by valuations, with total returns rising by 1.03%. We show cumulative returns on the S&P 500 over the last year, decomposed into earnings expectations and valuations: Image
3. We further decompose these yearly returns into their sector contributions. We begin by showing the primary drivers of the S&P 500. We show the top three drivers in blue (Technology, Financials, Industrials) & the bottom three in red (Consumer Disc., Healthcare, Energy): Image
Read 14 tweets
1. Our process tells us that we are likely headed towards a stagflationary environment, i.e., with growth contracting and inflation likely to be persistent. This regime tends to be one of the worst for passive investors, the reasoning for which is twofold. Image
2. Recessions are the primary risk to stocks as nominal spending collapses. At the same time, inflationary episodes are the primary risk to bonds as their fixed interest rate becomes less attractive relative to other nominal assets.
3. While we intend to provide a more in-depth commentary on both of these components separately in our upcoming Month in Macro report, we provide a sneak peek in what will be further elaborated on.
Read 9 tweets
Self assessment 🧵

New Year’s is the perfect time for some self reflection and assessment of my performance relative to my investing goal #5Real

#5Real = earning +5% AFTER inflation

So, how did I do?

I-Bonds +8.2%
Cash Accounts +3.1%
IRA Trend (long only) -2.97%
All Weather -5.76%
Trading account -6.39%
Vol HF allocation -6.54
IRA Mean Reversion -8.91%
401K -12.29%

No matter how you slice it, I came up well short of my goals

I lost money

I take absolutely zero solace in having outperformed the $SPX or $TLT

Yeh, it was a hard year. But I can do better.
Much better.

So, what did I learn this year to make me better at this game?
Read 15 tweets
DISCLAIMER : This is for educational purpose and not financial advise.

Monthly market analysis Oct 31, 2022

#StockMarket #DowJones best month since 1976

Let's look at more closely 🧵👇
1. After technical oversold and very negative sentiment in Sep month, #StockMarket was finally able to reverse direction this month. $DJIA had the best month since 1976 (+14%). $NDX was underperformed (5%) compared to $SPX (8.8%), $RUT(11%).

2. Let's look at US 10Y #Bond Yield price action. It was very volatile and tested 4.3% Jun'08 high before reversing -9.8% to the end of the month. This month it finished up 5.7%. RSI did not make new high at Oct 21 when it reached peak 4.33% (bearish reversal)
#StockMarket Image
Read 53 tweets
#Sunak, Prime M0R0N is going to maintain size of public sector but cut their budget - some same useless resources for even less useless work.
#Sunak, Prime M0R0N is going raise taxes, hindering growth, choking business, meaning less money in the economy & raising less revenue for government.
#Sunak, Prime M0R0N has shortfall in taxation revenue to fill his black hole; so there will be further increases in taxation as the UK spirals into #recession, a vicious downward spiral heading ultimately to stagflation! CONT.
Read 5 tweets
Thanks to @GeoffCutmore & @cnbcKaren for this morning's chat on #SquawkBox.

I did TRY to find something positive to say - honest, folks!

Following are the notes I sent the team before the show:-
Ok. So here goes...

Something I've mentioned on here: the enormous scale of Europe's energy problem runs into the €trillions. The #AmpelDesGrauens "Doppel-Wums" -'bazooka' - relief package is €200bln & doubts are *already* being voiced whether will suffice.
Read 14 tweets

Inflation in The Netherlands rising to a staggering 17.1%!!!

#inflation #STAGFLATION #Netherlands Image
For all the "economist" and peak inflation "experts" out there

This is NOT a local phenomenon!

#inflation #STAGFLATION #recession #European Image
FYI for all energy and inflation experts the Dutch saw NO problems with their massive housing bubble (tax friendly) and their cheap gas to heat their homes ⛽️

#inflation #energy #energybills Image
Read 3 tweets
The perfect storm: Double-digit inflation, negative real rates, and an inverted yield curve.

Symptoms of what seems is the arrive of the #Stagflation.

2023 will be a difficult year.
Considering the signals of the World economy, oil prices are far from the reality.

It's time to coordinate fair and sincere expectancies between producers and consumers, regulators and investors, avoiding automatic platforms.

#OOTT #OilPrices

It's urgent and necessary, the dialogue between producers, consumers and the financial institutions.

Read 4 tweets
Let's talk electricity.

Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages from what I call a crisis of confidence.

I will explain why, back it with data & kindly ask YOU to share it as the fix lies in voting for balanced policies. We must adapt, urgently!

For those of you short of time, attached a brief summary of the issue at hand.

I was asked to compare the 1970ies energy crisis with today's for a Turkish newspaper. My answer below.

For those of you with time, please read on.

2/n #Greenflation #Stagflation @WifeyAlpha ImageImageImageImage
The European electricity grid is a modern miracle. It is the largest synchronous electrical grid (by connected power) in the world. It interconnects 520 million end-customers in 32 countries, including non-European Union members such as Morocco or Turkey.

3/n Image
Read 73 tweets
I'm reading everything that #ZoltanPozsar puts out for many years...His latest piece "War and Interest Rates" (August 1st) was a true masterpiece...Here are some highlights in a #thread🧵:
War is inflationary

....Wars come in many different shapes and forms. There are hot wars, cold wars, and what @DrPippaM calls hot wars in cold places – cyberspace, space, and deep underwater (see here). ...

Inflation did not start with the hot war in Ukraine…
the low inflation world stood on three pillars:
first, cheap immigrant labor keeping service sector wages stagnant in the U.S.; second, cheap goods from China raising living standards amid stagnant wages; third, cheap Russian gas powering German industry and the EU more broadly.
Read 18 tweets
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰

Global Macro Review 07/17/22


Has #inflation peaked?

June #CPI +9.1% ♨️, but core +5.9% 🔻
@NYFedResearch consumer inflation expectations 1-year +6.8% 🔺, but UMich +5.2% 🔻from 5.3%

And firms +3.7% unch per @AtlantaFed

Let’s dig into more 🧮!


Chart: Since the June 10 peak at 329.59, the $CRB is -15.75% – and deeply oversold

Metals have been 🐻 Trend since May
(T) = Trend = 3 mos price momentum

$COPPER -8.5% (w) -31.55% (T)
$SILVER -3.4% (w) -27.65% (T)
$PLAT -6.0% (w) -16.5% (T)
$GOLD -2.2% (w) -13.75% (T)

Chart: Base metals ↘️ with $DBB -6.45% (w) -31.0% (T)
Read 13 tweets
NEW PAPER out today "Investing in #deflation, #inflation, and #stagflation regimes" Link to study:
The study was discussed in the @washingtonpost today as well as @business
🚀 500+ downloads in 1 day!…
Read 3 tweets
It could be slowflation not #stagflation – and it’s better for the equity markets…

By @jainrounak
With the pandemic & the #RussiaUkraineConflict, global economies have been affected by too many factors that have made central banks alter the course too many times, resulting in confusion over which way the economy will go and the shape of recovery.

#stagflation #RBI
Experts around the world have been worried about #recession and #stagflation — a combination of slow growth, inflation and unemployment. But now, analysts at UBS suggest things are looking up, stating that the global economy could be staring at ‘slowflation’ and not stagflation.
Read 8 tweets
Why $BRK's 2019-20 purchase of #Japan Inc is a potential #stagflation trade for the history books

🧵 follows

In this week’s PBL (just out!) we PiggyBack:

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway into Japanese trading houses

Read/join free @SubstackInc:…
Let's get to it:

August 31, 2020. $BRK sent out a release that left its many U.S.-focused watchers curious:

Berkshire disclosed having 5+% stakes in all five of #Japan's "big five" general trading houses (Sogo Shosha) after purchasing over 12 months in Tokyo Stock Exchange

2/X     “I am delighted to have Berkshire Hathaway participate
Buffett's / $BRK's "big five"

1 Itochu 🇯🇵TYO:8001|🇺🇸 $ITOCY
2 Marubeni Corp 🇯🇵TYO:8002|🇺🇸 $MARUY
3 Mitsubishi Corp 🇯🇵TYO:8058|🇺🇸 $MTSUY
4 Mitsui & Co 🇯🇵TYO:8031, 🇺🇸 $MITSY
5 Sumitomo Corp 🇯🇵TYO:8053|🇺🇸 $SSUMY

Chart @theTIKR
Disclosure: Long 1+2+3+4+5…
3/X Chart 2: Market capitalization of equity and total enterpris
Read 9 tweets

Annual inflation rate in the US unexpectedly accelerated to 8.6% in May 2022, the highest since December 1981 and compared to market forecasts of 8.3%.

We have been writing #Threads 🧵on #INFLATION.

Compiling all the threads for our friends.
#Inflation, #Deflation, #Stagflation.
We have heard all these terms on #Twitter in the last few months.

Initially, we were also confused, like most of our friends.

This #Thread🧵will give a brief description of these.

Where is #Inflation?

Let's understand this from the #Indian #Customer Perspective.

Read 6 tweets

Definition of #stagflation

❎Stagflation is a period of rising inflation but falling output and rising unemployment.

❎Stagflation is often a period of falling real incomes as wages struggle to keep up with rising prices.

❎Stagflation is often caused by a rise in the price of commodities, such as oil. it occurred in the 1970s following the tripling in the price of oil.

❎A degree of stagflation occurred in 2008, following the rise in the price of oil and the start of the global recession.

❎Stagflation is difficult for policy makers. For example, the Central Bank can increase interest rates to reduce inflation or cut interest rates to reduce unemployment. But, they can’t tackle both inflation and unemployment at the same time.

Diagram stagflation
Read 24 tweets
Global macro review 05/01/2022


🐰🐰 - we’re gonna need it!

Q1 GDP release this week confirmed #stagflation
Growth -1.4%
Inflation +8.0%

But what did April signal in terms of the current quad regime?

Let’s dig into the April 🧮!

UST yields ↗️ across the ⤴️

10/2s to 19.9 BPS, +20.6 BPS and out of inversion

MOVE 128.4 +20% for the month = 🛗 vol

Chart: UST2Y 2.73% + 42 BPS for the month but acceleration slowing

Chart: The UST10Y 2.94% + 57 BPS with room to run
Read 22 tweets
@frankmottek @KABCRadio I listen to @MottekOnMoney each night when I can but am curious why you haven't had @PeterSchiff on (like you did when at @knxnews) after he was spot on about #stagflation long before @elerianm realized it?:

Peter Schiff: Stagflation Will Shock Markets:

@frankmottek @KABCRadio @MottekOnMoney @PeterSchiff @knxnews @elerianm Also disagree with @elerianm's view on #Fedcoin

Warning ‘Fedcoin’ is coming – and it may ‘replace cash and hurt savers as well as allowing gov to track your payments:…

The US dollar could go digital. Here’s what you need to know…
@frankmottek @KABCRadio @MottekOnMoney @PeterSchiff @knxnews @elerianm The War On Cash Entering Bold New Phase:…

The Future of #America: Social Scores, #CBDC (#Fedcoin), Health (Vaccine) Passports:

#TheGreatReset #GreatReset #KlausSchwab #WEF
Read 11 tweets
1/ Préparez prochainement à une rotation de grande ampleur vers la #value. Car en effet elle est inévitable. La question n'est pas de savoir quand ça se produira mais quand. M. le Marché n'aime pas le changement. Les investisseurs #FOMO l'apprendront à leurs dépens. #inflation
2/ Ce que j'en suis sûr, c'est que cette rotation vers la #value se fera dans un contexte dévastateur pour les investisseurs qui bercent naïvement dans le #FED Put. Malheureusement, ce dernier laissera place à un FED Collar.
3/ $TSLA $AAPL $FB $AMZN $MSFT & Co ont tellement profité des politiques monétaires très accommodantes des banques centrales. Et peu importe si leurs fondamentaux intrinsèques sont bons ou pas. Je m'attends à des gros dégagements, et donc un transfert de richesse vers la #value.
Read 15 tweets
Good morning Asia and the news is not good:

a) Pres Biden was in Poland and oil went to 121/barrel as fear of escalation higher
b) Shanghai Covid cases spiked & now locking down half of it
c) Markets pricing of hikes globally have gone up, even for the ECB.
This week, PMIs for China and Asia are coming out (don't do prelims so we have to wait end of the month for data) & expect China data to be weaker on zero Covid & spiking Omicron and lockdowns/shutdowns.
Bank of Thailand this week. Don't expect any move even if CPI spikes to 5.3%
Yes, I am still bullish Southeast Asia & Australia, especially commodity exporters, in this environment of #stagflation & even if the Fed goes hawkish. And yes, India is considered a loser of higher oil prices but where it loses in the current account, it'll gain in the capital.
Read 3 tweets

Global Macro Review 03/27/22


Nothing but #Quad3 #stagflation
as far as the 👁‍🗨 can 👀

Commodities ↗️

Yields ↗️

Equities ↗️

Let’s dig into the 🧮!

The 🔑 to ↘️ prices is ↗️ prices?

Chart: The $CRB closed at a new cycle high 307.33 +5.16% and is now within striking distance of the June 2014 🔝

Hydrocarbons put in another shift this week 🚀
(w) = week (T) = Trend = 3 months

$BRENT +8.75% (w) +53.05% (T)
$GASO +7.15% (w) +56.35% (T)
$NATGAS + 15.45% (w) +54.55% (T) ⬅️
$WTIC +10.5% (W) +54.35% (T)

Chart: Uncle Joe is going to bottle up Natty and sell it to the EU
Read 21 tweets
Hello St. Patrick's Day! 🍀🍀

Emerging market equities, commodities, and currencies are 🍻 the 🕊️🕊️ that are PE Powell and the #FOMC

Let #inflation 🏃

Let's dig into the 🧮!
Asia 🚀 for a 2nd day 🍀🍀

$NIKK 26653 +3.45%
$SSEC 32115 +1.4%
$TWII 17448 +3.0%
$HSI 21501 +7.05% ⬅️
$KOSPI 2695 +1.35%
$IDX 6964 -0.4%

Australia ↗️🍀
$ASX 8251 +1.05%

India ↗️🍀
$BSE 57954 +2.0%
Europe a little more subdued but mostly ↗️

$DAX 14410 -0.2%
$FTSE 7305 +0.15%
$CAC 6596 +0.1%
$AEX 707 +0.45%
$IBEX 6410 +0.45%
$MIB 24222 -0.2%
$SMI 11940 +0.35%
$MOEX 🪆💥

$VSTOXX 36.01 🔻🍀
Read 11 tweets
A thread on #Stagflation

Stagflation has been a buzzing word since Friday. Let's understand the concept and how it will impact our equity investment in the near future.

The below pic is very informative showing the implication of inflation on GDP growth.
Economists across the world are trying to interpret the present situation and making their consensus on the most likely upcoming stagflationary phase followed by the Global recession. Economists are cutting their GDP growth forecasts & raising inflation projections.
How is this buzzing suddenly? On Friday gap between yields on US02 year and US10-year notes stood at its narrowest since March 2020, a signal that investors may be anticipating that economic growth will slow down from its current robust pace.
Read 15 tweets
Hello Thursday! 🔥💥

🪆 unleashes 👹

$MOEX -23%
$VIX 36.23
$BRENT +6.3%
$WHEAT +5.7%
$BTC -7.75%
$GOLD +2.0%

Let's dig into the 🧮!
Asia closed ↘️↘️

$NIKK 25971 -1.8%
$SSEC 3429 -1.7% (safe haven per Mobius)
$TWII 17595 -2.55%
$HSI 22902 -3.2% ⬅️
$KOSPI 2649 -2.6%
$IDX -1.5%

Australia ↘️↘️
$ASX 6991 -3.0%

India ↘️↘️
$BSE 54964 -4.0% ⬅️
Europe opens ↘️🩸

$DAX 14141 -3.3%
$FTSE 7313 -2.45%
$CAC 3568 -3.15%
$AEX 710 -2.5%
$IBEX 8193 -2.9%
$MIB 35104 -3.3%
$SMI 11688 -2.15%
$MOEX 2344 -24.05% ⬅️🪆🩸

$VSTOXX 33.46
Read 12 tweets

Related hashtags

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!