Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Step4

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An updated 🧡 on our latest report modelling #step4 of the #roadmap on 19th July 2021 πŸ›£οΈπŸͺœ with @_nickdavies @markjit & John Edmunds @cmmid_lshtm πŸ‘©β€πŸ’» (published today) ... #storytime with pictures πŸ“’πŸ“· gov.uk/government/pub…
We were asked to model roadmap #step4 happening on 19th July with:
▢️ different vaccine effectiveness vs. Delta Ξ΄ B.1.617.2
▢️ different transmission levels after step 4

We used the same #agestructured #compartmental #deterministic model as before An image showing the compartments and transitions between di
This time, we ran *a lot* of model fits, shoutout @PushoverApp.

We fitted the transmissibility (TX) of Ξ΄ relative to Ξ± given (central and optimistic) assumptions on vaccine effect πŸ’‰

We also produced model fits w/ combinations of:
🌘 waning immunityπŸŒ–
😣 severity of delta πŸ₯ A screenshot showing the Pushover app with lots of notificat
Read 11 tweets
It's been a busy few days/weeks/months modelling steps 2, 3 and 4 of the #roadmap out of lockdown in England, with my #ateam @_nickdavies @markjit and John Edmunds. A 🧡 on our latest work looking at #step4 πŸͺœπŸ‘©β€πŸ’» and a #photodump of some nice things I saw along the way A photograph of the West pier and Brighton beach with low ti
We project the dynamics of #SARSCoV2 transmission in England using an #agestructured #transmission #model which divides the population into vaccine states and disease states. The model has compartments for three #COVID19 variants (OG, #alpha and #delta) and 2 two-dose vaccines πŸ’‰ An illustration of the age-structured compartmental transmis
To capture changes in behaviour (➑️ the amount people mix in the model), we use historic #mobilitydata and make assumptions about what might happen to mobility when policies are implemented, e.g. #step4 πŸ€ We make low, medium and high assumptions to account for uncertainty... ⭐️ Figures showing google mobility data between January 2020 an
Read 11 tweets
Rupanya Mudah Ja Cara Nak Isi Borang Cukai E-Filling Ni. Dah la nak kena hantar ke LHDN sebelum 30 April ni. Tak lama dah tu. Jadi kena la cepat-cepat submit sebelum terlambat!
Tapi sebelum tu, berapa jumlah pendapatan seseorang perlu mula declare cukai?
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Gaji bersih tahunan RM34,000 (selepas tolak EPF) kategori ini layak declare cukai.
Tak apa, korang yang dah sampai tahap gaji macam ini, declare je okay. Kena cukai tu belum tentu lagi, silap-silap dapat refund lagi!
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Sini saya kongsikan langkah-langkah mudah untuk isi borang BE (individu tiada pendapatan perniagaan)
Read 9 tweets

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