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The Weekly Recap 🧵
Missed out anything from a week full of #Macro & #Markets? Don't worry - we got you covered.
Below we share all the updates & opinions threads from last week. Make sure to follow @prometheusmacro for much more.
Missed out anything from a week full of #Macro & #Markets? Don't worry - we got you covered.
Below we share all the updates & opinions threads from last week. Make sure to follow @prometheusmacro for much more.
1. We started the week with discussing our view ahead for markets. Our systematic view is that we are headed towards a stagflationary recession.
2. Re 1, we further contextualised our view by sharing our systematic updates on inflation & growth.
PROMETHEUS CYCLE STRATEGIES
1. Over the past two months, our 'Month in Macro' reports have discussed two main themes. Firstly, we discussed how our systems have now triggered to expect a recession. Below we show our estimated projection for GDP:
1. Over the past two months, our 'Month in Macro' reports have discussed two main themes. Firstly, we discussed how our systems have now triggered to expect a recession. Below we show our estimated projection for GDP:
2. Second, we focused on how after a period of disinflationary market pricing, there is significant potential for markets & policymakers to have now have to wrestle with an elevated
inflationary trend well above 2%. This trend will likely only be resolved through a recession.
inflationary trend well above 2%. This trend will likely only be resolved through a recession.
3. Both of these scenarios have augmented our thinking in developing our cycle strategies that aim to use our cyclical expectations to trade markets.
RCCG 2023 MAY HOLY GHOST SERVICE || THE EVERLASTING ARM OF GOD.
Ministering:Pastor E.A Adeboye
Prayers and Declarations:
1. I pray for you today, the everlasting arm will go to your origin.
2. The next time I hear concerning you shall be good news.
Ministering:Pastor E.A Adeboye
Prayers and Declarations:
1. I pray for you today, the everlasting arm will go to your origin.
2. The next time I hear concerning you shall be good news.
3. Thank him for choosing you to be one of his friends.
4. Father, please stretch your everlasting arms into my future and if there is any danger waiting there, please remove them.
5. Father today touch the finance of your children.
6. Father, touch their marriage.
4. Father, please stretch your everlasting arms into my future and if there is any danger waiting there, please remove them.
5. Father today touch the finance of your children.
6. Father, touch their marriage.
7. Touch their children.
8. Let our promotion begin.
9. Father, please stretch your hand to the very source of my life, and if there is any evil there, please remove it.
8. Let our promotion begin.
9. Father, please stretch your hand to the very source of my life, and if there is any evil there, please remove it.
RCCG 2023 MAY HOLY GHOST SERVICE || THE EVERLASTING ARM OF GOD.
Ministering:Pastor Mrs. Adetayo Oretola
Ministering:Pastor Mrs. Adetayo Oretola
Opening prayers:
1. Father, in Jesus' name, give me unconditional love to love my loved ones.
2. Father, let your kingdom come into my life and the lives of each member of my family.
3. Father, please have mercy on us.
1. Father, in Jesus' name, give me unconditional love to love my loved ones.
2. Father, let your kingdom come into my life and the lives of each member of my family.
3. Father, please have mercy on us.
4. Every bad remark spoken against you will be rejected in Jesus' name.
5. In Jesus' name, unholy hands will not touch you.
6. Father, wage my struggle on my behalf.
7. Arise to fortify me.
8. Rise and deliver me.
5. In Jesus' name, unholy hands will not touch you.
6. Father, wage my struggle on my behalf.
7. Arise to fortify me.
8. Rise and deliver me.
DoorDash has all the appslaves it needs to minimize pay. Few Dashers (heaven help YOUR "friends") complete 270 deliveries within 60 days (~15 hours per week, at 2 deliveries per hour).
📉DoorDash reports, "In 2021, 90% of Dashers worked less than 10 hrs per week on delivery."
📉DoorDash reports, "In 2021, 90% of Dashers worked less than 10 hrs per week on delivery."
You’ve heard, “if it’s free, you're the product." Here’s a new version for DoorDash Singularity. In the DoorDash game #Dashers ARE NOT PEOPLE WITH JOBS, they’re expenses judged by their all-in cost; the sum of their recruitment costs and delivery payments.
jeffthomasblack.substack.com/p/episode-5-th…
jeffthomasblack.substack.com/p/episode-5-th…
#FullDashclosure
DoorDash is "#LaborLaundering" - engaging in compensation schemes insidiously-designed to obscure any measurable rate of #DasherPay, any calculation of operational #Expenses, reporting of income from workers making under $600/year and the major issue of #Risk.
DoorDash is "#LaborLaundering" - engaging in compensation schemes insidiously-designed to obscure any measurable rate of #DasherPay, any calculation of operational #Expenses, reporting of income from workers making under $600/year and the major issue of #Risk.
#reflexivity between #bubbles vs #antibubbles once again distorting markets
Artificially low #VIX forces quant strategies (trend, risk parity, vol target) to buy #SPX, squeezes weak shorts
#insurance tends to be cheapest when we need it the most
Anti-bubble framework 👇
Artificially low #VIX forces quant strategies (trend, risk parity, vol target) to buy #SPX, squeezes weak shorts
#insurance tends to be cheapest when we need it the most
Anti-bubble framework 👇
1) Embrace #volatiltiy. Don’t fight it.
2) avoid #leverage, your enemy responsible for financial and emotional distress.
3) Seek negative #correlation and avoid risk of false #diversification. Remember that a portfolio with many holdings is not necessarily diversified.
2) avoid #leverage, your enemy responsible for financial and emotional distress.
3) Seek negative #correlation and avoid risk of false #diversification. Remember that a portfolio with many holdings is not necessarily diversified.
4) Seek #Emotional indifference. If your trading makes you overly happy or sad, you are trading too big.
5) #Rebalance Portfolio = sell high, buy cheap. Now is time to trim risk, add insurance
6) #compound on capital preservation. Goalkeeper most important player in any team.
5) #Rebalance Portfolio = sell high, buy cheap. Now is time to trim risk, add insurance
6) #compound on capital preservation. Goalkeeper most important player in any team.
PERSONAL INCOME & SPENDING DEEP DIVE
1/ Income and spending are two sides of the same coin, with one person’s spending powering another person’s income.This relationship isn’t necessarily 1:1, as consumers can save income. Nonetheless, the pass-through is large:
1/ Income and spending are two sides of the same coin, with one person’s spending powering another person’s income.This relationship isn’t necessarily 1:1, as consumers can save income. Nonetheless, the pass-through is large:
2/ Currently, aggregate income remains supported by a high level of nominal wages and heightened employment. We see this in today’s economic data, where nominal personal income grew primarily as a function of increasing employee compensation:
3/ Employee compensation accounted for 51% of monthly income growth, which remains in line with its one-year trend. On an annual basis, employee compensation continues to power nominal income growth, and the drop-off in government benefits continues to drag on growth:
RECESSION INCOMING?
1/3 It is highly likely we are headed towards a recession. Arguably, we are already in one. Our economic data tracking places us at approximately 0.7% Real GDP growth versus a year ago. PCE data will confirm or deny whether we are currently in a recession:
1/3 It is highly likely we are headed towards a recession. Arguably, we are already in one. Our economic data tracking places us at approximately 0.7% Real GDP growth versus a year ago. PCE data will confirm or deny whether we are currently in a recession:
2/3 The US economy is prototypically consumer-dominated, with 69% of GDP coming from consumer spending alone. Currently the consumer remains well supported by nominal wages + employment, as shown below. However, as cyclical components of the economy slow, these are like to drag:
3/3 During late-cycle, with interest rates rising to keep up with inflation, household spending on items that require borrowing (autos & housing mainly) tends to weaken significantly as prospects for the economy begin to decline. We aggregate these components to forecast GDP:
Important #Thread-
1. While Newspapers, media and investigation agencies were focused on Ludhiana blast case during past few days, Journalist Harpreet Singh Kahlon has come up with an important documentary for @The_Unmute about #MaurBlast of 2017.
Video:
1. While Newspapers, media and investigation agencies were focused on Ludhiana blast case during past few days, Journalist Harpreet Singh Kahlon has come up with an important documentary for @The_Unmute about #MaurBlast of 2017.
Video:
2. Five out of seven victims, who lost their lives during Maur Blast, were children.
3. Media reports kept mentioning the this case till the political and bureaucratic setup was claiming foreign hand behind it.
3. Media reports kept mentioning the this case till the political and bureaucratic setup was claiming foreign hand behind it.
4. The moment investigation team found domestic hand of Dera Sauda Sirsa in this blast, the investigation was stopped.
5. Investigation team, which was expecting appreciation for cracking the case, was shocked when it was told to snub the details.
5. Investigation team, which was expecting appreciation for cracking the case, was shocked when it was told to snub the details.
Are you using the terms #MSM #media #news and #press incorrectly? If so you are hurting #journalism.
And America won’t survive without journalism. 📰 🗞
Thread 🧵:
And America won’t survive without journalism. 📰 🗞
Thread 🧵:
-what is media? It’s really anything out there: TV, papers, mags, internet. This is an extremely general term. Do not use it, unless you specify which medium. Particularly if you are unhappy with this medium. When you use media in a derogatory manner, you hurt *all* media.
-what is MSM? Who the hell knows. Especially in today’s digital age. Propagandists love using and abusing this term. Be wary of it. See above. Skip usage.
I'm trying to get to 1,000 subscribers on #youtube, i have a LONG way to go! If you're my friend & you feel like it, please #subscribe to my channel to help me get to my goal (being monetized), insha'Allah. Thanks and Salaam alaikum!
youtube.com/c/ErnestPenaPi…
youtube.com/c/ErnestPenaPi…
Was at 57 and a day after i posted this i went to 59 😉 lets make it to 1000! Insha'Allah
*[ RAMADHAN CERDAS LIVE SHOW]*
_Assalamu'alaikum Wr. Wb._
_Allahumma shalli ‘ala Muhammad wa aali Muhammad_
Insya Allah *Setiap Malam* di Bulan Suci Ramadhan ini akan diadakan *Talkshow bersama Dr. Muhsin Labib, MA*
_Assalamu'alaikum Wr. Wb._
_Allahumma shalli ‘ala Muhammad wa aali Muhammad_
Insya Allah *Setiap Malam* di Bulan Suci Ramadhan ini akan diadakan *Talkshow bersama Dr. Muhsin Labib, MA*
yang akan dimulai *pukul 20.30 WIB s/d selesai di setiap harinya.* via Zoom Meeting dan live streaming di beberapa sosial media.
Adapun Talkshow Interaktif Ramadhan Karim bersama Dr. Muhsin Labib ini akan disampaikan dengan topik/tema antara lain:
Adapun Talkshow Interaktif Ramadhan Karim bersama Dr. Muhsin Labib ini akan disampaikan dengan topik/tema antara lain:
1. Kemanusiaan dan Spiritualitas
2. Agnotisisme dan Kebertuhanan
3. Tuhan dan Allah
4. Agama dan Spiritualitas
5. Agama dan Sains
6. Agama antara Logika dan Dogma
7. Wahyu dan Akal Sehat
8. Iman dan Kufur
9. Iman dan Amal
10.Makna Baik dan Buruk
2. Agnotisisme dan Kebertuhanan
3. Tuhan dan Allah
4. Agama dan Spiritualitas
5. Agama dan Sains
6. Agama antara Logika dan Dogma
7. Wahyu dan Akal Sehat
8. Iman dan Kufur
9. Iman dan Amal
10.Makna Baik dan Buruk
Me on the other side of bath and body works while they fightin...
Not white people the inverters of stealing in the comments mad over a joke about stealing...go back to white twitter and leave us alone
Everything @AOC says here about media literacy and being an active news consumer is TRUE, and I’m glad she’s saying it to her huge audience. The best thing for this nation’s success is to have well-informed voters.
Also, I do want to say: if readers SUBSCRIBE (yes pay hard money) for news, it will help make news orgs less reliant on page views, page advertising and clicks.
Here’s a pic of Chris happily reading his morning copy of @thecolumbian. Be like Chris. #subscribe
1. A 54 year old female with a history of breast cancer presents with a 3 week hx of worsening headache, trouble walking and visual impairment. Her breast cancer was treated 2 years ago with wide local excision followed by radiotherapy. #BBHCP
2. Based on the history so far what are your thoughts on a differential diagnosis? #BBHCP
3. Neoplastic: metastasis, meningioma, primary glial tumour. Infectious: abscess. Vascular: intracerebral haemorrhage, AVM. Other: hydrocephalus secondary to neoplasm..
