Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #SuperSpreading
Most recents (21)
Why it is important to equip day-care centres and #schools with mobile #air #filters: #Aerosol researchers launch position paper!
The scandal about the still insufficient equipment of day-care centres and #schools with #mobile #air #filters suggests that…
@realBertBlocken
1/x
The scandal about the still insufficient equipment of day-care centres and #schools with #mobile #air #filters suggests that…
@realBertBlocken
1/x
decision-makers in the ministries and administrations have still not understood how infections with the #coronavirus occur. The Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (#DFG, German Research Foundation) is now countering this
2/x
2/x
with an information paper that explains the correlations in simple terms.
It clearly states that it is ⚠️#negligent to rely solely on window ventilation in educational institutions.⚠️
3/x
It clearly states that it is ⚠️#negligent to rely solely on window ventilation in educational institutions.⚠️
3/x
Am Freitag gab es in meinem Heimatdorf eine Party mit über 600 Gästen. Nun hat sich rausgestellt, dass es mindestens einen #corona Positiven unter den Gästen gab. Was mich daran wütend macht: ⬇️ (1/11)
Am Eingang mussten immerhin alle Gäste in der #LucaApp einchecken. Das #Gesundheitsamt hat mittlerweile alle Daten angefordert, aber es gab bislang keine SMS oder E-Mail an alle Gäste. Warum nicht?? (2/11)
Alle Tickets wurden schönerweise nur vorab online verkauft. Auch mit diesen Daten hätten alle Gäste per Mail über den #Coronafall und sinnvolle Maßnahmen informiert werden können. (3/11)
1/7 Ein Thread als Analyse nach #ks2003 mit Blick auf den erfolgreichen Widerstand von 20.000 Demonstrierenden gegen die staatlichen Maßnahmen zur Eindämmung der #Corona #Pandemie und die Kapitulation der #Polizei. Wie es dazu kam, und wie es mit #Querdenken weiter gehen könnte. 
2/7 Fehleinschätzung durch @polizei_nh, bezogen auf TN-Zahl, Verhalten und Dynamik. Zu wenig Polizisten: Man hat #Querdenken gewähren lassen, Auflagen nicht durchgesetzt, Fehler von @polizeiberlin und @PolizeiSachsen bei Großdemos #b0108 #b2908 #le0711 wiederholt.
3/7 Erneut hat man sich über die Inszenierung eines #Superspreading Events selbstermächtigt: Das Nicht-Einhalten von Mindestabständen und die Ablehnung von MNS sind Programm. Gerichtliche Auflagen und Verbote wurden ignoriert verwaltungsgerichtsbarkeit.hessen.de/pressemitteilu…
The more I read this story of #superspreading in a Chicago gym, the more outrageous it is, especially this late in the game. A few amazing quotes below.
So preventable: distance, wear good masks, improve ventilation & filtration.
HT @linseymarr (1/x)
cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…
So preventable: distance, wear good masks, improve ventilation & filtration.
HT @linseymarr (1/x)
cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…
2/ Just amazing this can be true ...
"Overall, 43 (78%) attendees with COVID-19 participated in multiple classes while potentially infectious.* Twenty-two (40%) attendees with COVID-19 attended on or after the day of symptom onset."
"Overall, 43 (78%) attendees with COVID-19 participated in multiple classes while potentially infectious.* Twenty-two (40%) attendees with COVID-19 attended on or after the day of symptom onset."
3/ This is why #COVIDisAirborne education is critical:
"Patrons brought their own mats and weights and were stationed ≥6 ft apart."
"Mask use, temperature checks, and symptom screenings were required on entry"
"however, patrons were allowed to remove masks during exercise." 🤦♂️
"Patrons brought their own mats and weights and were stationed ≥6 ft apart."
"Mask use, temperature checks, and symptom screenings were required on entry"
"however, patrons were allowed to remove masks during exercise." 🤦♂️
#UnAnnoFa il #genoma di "un #coronavirus" ricavato da un caso relativo al "focolaio di malattie respiratorie di #Wuhan" veniva pubblicato su #GenBank... 🧐#SARSCoV2
#UnAnnoFa... "Il focolaio di infezioni ha indotto timori di una potenziale epidemia dopo che la Cina ha dichiarato che il virus che lo ha causato è sconosciuto, ma proveniente dalla stessa famiglia di virus che ha causato le epidemie di #SARS e #MERS".🧐
reut.rs/36JSBvU
reut.rs/36JSBvU
#UnAnnoFa Diventa improvvisamente chiaro che il nuovo virus viaggia velocemente... in aereo. Nessun campanello di allarme in giro per il mondo? 🧐 #covid19
cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspecti…
cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspecti…
#OneYearAgo a "coronavirus #genome from a case of a respiratory disease from the #Wuhan outbreak" was published on #GenBank... 🧐#SARSCoV2
#OneYearAgo "The cluster of infections had raised fears of a potential epidemic after China said last week that the virus causing it was a previously unknown type but came from the same family of viruses that caused the #SARS and #MERS epidemics".🧐
reuters.com/article/us-hea…
reuters.com/article/us-hea…
#OneYearAgo It was suddenly clear that the virus was travelling fast... any bell ringing?🧐#covid19
cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspecti…
cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspecti…
Meanwhile in #France,
"the peak of this second wave is over"
(according to the President in his Adress to the Nation):
"the peak of this second wave is over"
(according to the President in his Adress to the Nation):
Wait... "the peak is over" doesn´t mean "it´s back to normal"!
Confinement will only fall on December 15,
if there´s less than 5.000 new cases a day.
(today it´s ~9.000).
France is disappointed.🙁
Although they certainly can make it happen.
Confinement will only fall on December 15,
if there´s less than 5.000 new cases a day.
(today it´s ~9.000).
France is disappointed.🙁
Although they certainly can make it happen.
Meanwhile in #Switzerland:
(excess mortality of the second wave is significant)
Good news: fastest decrease in infections happens in the worst hit areas now.
(excess mortality of the second wave is significant)
Good news: fastest decrease in infections happens in the worst hit areas now.
How’s your Sunday going? Do you have enough reading material?
ICYMI - here is some of our group’s output from the week just gone.
1. We started the week with an exploration of the statistics and real life implications of #superspreading from @Sharpe_Actuary
ICYMI - here is some of our group’s output from the week just gone.
1. We started the week with an exploration of the statistics and real life implications of #superspreading from @Sharpe_Actuary
2. Next @john_actuary examined Monday’s @ONS report on excess mortality at home that has been seen since the peak. He (and ONS) highlighted the crucial context that deaths overall have been no higher than usual (since the peak) so this just represents a shift between settings.
3. On Tuesday we shared the latest report from the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI), part of @actuarynews.
They found that death rates in late Sept and early Oct were very similar to 2019. So the COVID-19 deaths were not yet translating in higher death rates overall.
They found that death rates in late Sept and early Oct were very similar to 2019. So the COVID-19 deaths were not yet translating in higher death rates overall.
People are talking about *forward* and *backward* #ContactTracing #COVID19
What do they mean?
I made a case study for the @GOARN @WHO contact tracing group
A fictional contact tracer’s tale
My slides are here:
ispmbern.github.io/covid-19/Forwa…
Short thread (1/7)
What do they mean?
I made a case study for the @GOARN @WHO contact tracing group
A fictional contact tracer’s tale
My slides are here:
ispmbern.github.io/covid-19/Forwa…
Short thread (1/7)
Most #ContactTracing seeks contacts from 2 days before the infected person developed symptoms
#SARSCoV2 can be transmitted before symptoms emerge.
That is looking *forwards*
Who might the index case have infected?
Contacts in quarantine soon enough won’t infect others
2/7
#SARSCoV2 can be transmitted before symptoms emerge.
That is looking *forwards*
Who might the index case have infected?
Contacts in quarantine soon enough won’t infect others
2/7
Forward contact tracing can break onward transmission chains.
But it doesn’t find the source who infected the index case
To find the source, we need to go *backwards*
Index cases are more likely to have been infected by a source, who also infected others in a cluster
3/7
But it doesn’t find the source who infected the index case
To find the source, we need to go *backwards*
Index cases are more likely to have been infected by a source, who also infected others in a cluster
3/7
As an infectious diseases physician & someone who has practiced public health for the last 25 years, I'm appalled by @VP Pence's lack of respect for basic protective measures. This disregard for science- and more importantly, the health of those in the room with him- is stunning.
With President Trump & many other senior staff ill, the @VP has cast aside CDC guidance by breaking quarantine. Putting aside concerns about continuity of government, ask yourself - would I want to be maskless in a room with someone who had his exposures?
cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…
cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…
Especially in light of CDC's new guidance on the potential for airborne spread of the virus (meaning it can linger in the air for minutes or hours), the Trump administration should be taking *more* precautions with meetings and tomorrow's VP debate.
washingtonpost.com/health/2020/10…
washingtonpost.com/health/2020/10…
The key to better control of the #covid19 pandemic may be in identifying & preventing #superspreading, through backward tracing to identify clusters. Need to rethink our approach.
Good article by @zeynep explaining the rationale.
theatlantic.com/health/archive…
Good article by @zeynep explaining the rationale.
theatlantic.com/health/archive…
Contact tracing seeks out where the infection has come from (look for source) & where it is going (contacts of the index who may be susceptible). An assumption is that all infections are equal (i.e. every infected person has a similar chance of infecting someone else).
1/n
1/n
So with COVID19, we assume with R0=2.6, 1 infected person infects 2.6 others. But this is an erroneous assumption if superspreading is a key mode of transmission. Some infected persons are more infective!
2/n
2/n
1). Heutige Kultusministerkonferenz
21.09.20
@KM_BW @KM_Bayern @MichaelPiazolo @SenBJF @BrittaErnst @BettinaMartin4 @bogedan @TiesRabe @Reg_Hessen #Lorz @GTonne @BildungslandNRW @BildungRLP @ChristineClivot @Bildund_Sachsen #Piwarz @MarcoTullner @PrienKarin @HelmutHolter
21.09.20
@KM_BW @KM_Bayern @MichaelPiazolo @SenBJF @BrittaErnst @BettinaMartin4 @bogedan @TiesRabe @Reg_Hessen #Lorz @GTonne @BildungslandNRW @BildungRLP @ChristineClivot @Bildund_Sachsen #Piwarz @MarcoTullner @PrienKarin @HelmutHolter
2). Wir möchten an dieser Stelle auf unseren 2. offenen Brief an @die_regierung hinweisen, in dem wir explizit #Containment-Maßnahmen forderten, die über die #Containment-Maßnahmen des
1. offenen Briefes hinausgehen:
1. offenen Briefes hinausgehen:
1).
@Markus_Soeder @tobiashans @RegBerlin @bodoramelow @Stk_Brandenburg @SH_CDU @reinerhaseloff @MPKretschmer @rlpNews @stephanweil @ManuelaSchwesig @RegHessen @carstensieling @TschenPe @RegierungBW @AndreasBovensc1 @peteraltmaier @akk @AngelaMerkeICDU @ArminLaschet @jensspahn
@Markus_Soeder @tobiashans @RegBerlin @bodoramelow @Stk_Brandenburg @SH_CDU @reinerhaseloff @MPKretschmer @rlpNews @stephanweil @ManuelaSchwesig @RegHessen @carstensieling @TschenPe @RegierungBW @AndreasBovensc1 @peteraltmaier @akk @AngelaMerkeICDU @ArminLaschet @jensspahn
2). Ignorieren Sie die Hilferufe der Bevölkerung nicht! Es muss JETZT gehandelt werden! In Europa schießen die Neuinfektionen stetig und rasant in die Höhe!
google.de/amp/s/www.news…
google.de/amp/s/www.news…
3). #Eltern und #Schüler sind verzweifelt, da immer mehr Klassen in ganz #Deutschland aufgrund einer Infektion mit #SARS-COV-2 in #Quarantäne geschickt werden.
As #COVID19 cases are found to spread, #Melbourne (city of ~5 million) tries to contain them by going into #Lockdown.
(The interview features the idea of a dedicated #Quarantine building - that would actually help, I guess)...
(The interview features the idea of a dedicated #Quarantine building - that would actually help, I guess)...
"People acting as if the pandemic was over was 'not the answer, it is part of the problem' ".
"The virus had leaked from postcodes already under the stay-at-home orders to other parts of #Melbourne."
(and beyond, it is feared).
"The virus had leaked from postcodes already under the stay-at-home orders to other parts of #Melbourne."
(and beyond, it is feared).
Due to #Melbourne's outbreak, neighbouring South Australia is about to completely close it's borders to #Victoria.
(Nearly) no exceptions. And those essential few who are allowed in, will have to wear facemasks the entire time...
(Nearly) no exceptions. And those essential few who are allowed in, will have to wear facemasks the entire time...
Fired Florida Covid Dashboard Architect Claims She Was Asked To Manually Change Numbers | via @Forbes #GOPGenocide #Sadism #DeathPanels #MAGAMasochism forbes.com/sites/siladity…
Texas city and county leaders ask Gov. Greg Abbott for authority to implement local stay-at-home orders via @TexasTribune #StayHomeTexas #GetOuttaTheWayGreg #GOPMalfeasance #GrossNegligence texastribune.org/2020/06/29/tex…
More than 30 Texas bars sue over Gov. Greg Abbott's recent shutdown order | via @TexasTribune #Cult45* #COVIDIOTS #VultureCapitalism #MAGAMasochism #Sadism 🦊🤡texastribune.org/2020/06/29/tex…
1/ Q: What is “Superspreading”? How can we avoid it?
A: Yes, superspreading is as yucky as it sounds, and seems to have played an important role in early #COVID19 spread.
To avoid, stick to the Nerdy Girl stay SMART principles (Space, Mask, Air, Restrict, Time)!
A: Yes, superspreading is as yucky as it sounds, and seems to have played an important role in early #COVID19 spread.
To avoid, stick to the Nerdy Girl stay SMART principles (Space, Mask, Air, Restrict, Time)!
2/ This article gives an excellent overview of the superspreading clusters that have been identified and what we know about the science: scientificamerican.com/article/how-ld…
Some highlights:
Some highlights:
3/ Models based on #ContactTracing data estimate that 10 - 20% of infected people may be responsible for 80% of #SARSCoV2 spread.
BUT Keep in mind that superspreading events may be OVER-REPRESENTED in the data since they are easier to identify than casual individual encounters
BUT Keep in mind that superspreading events may be OVER-REPRESENTED in the data since they are easier to identify than casual individual encounters
Vorpommern-Greifswald district (where rejections of #Gütersloh residents took place, yesterday)
has specific rules:
"Those who return from international risk areas (out of Germany) or whose Corona-Warning App has alerted them, need to report to authorites"
kreis-vg.de
has specific rules:
"Those who return from international risk areas (out of Germany) or whose Corona-Warning App has alerted them, need to report to authorites"
kreis-vg.de
In fact, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern's Corona-ordinance really prohibits entry of people from international risk areas AND german risk areas as well.
It's just not prominently featured on their websites.
(Overlooked that myself, hence deleted earlier tweet)
landesrecht-mv.de/jportal/portal…
It's just not prominently featured on their websites.
(Overlooked that myself, hence deleted earlier tweet)
landesrecht-mv.de/jportal/portal…
People from #Gütersloh district may have to scrap all their holiday plans anyway...
An official #Lockdown is just being announced for the entire district.
(for one week, as of now)
An official #Lockdown is just being announced for the entire district.
(for one week, as of now)
147/x
148/x
Wearing a mask can help mitigate the super spreading phenomena:
Wearing a mask can help mitigate the super spreading phenomena:
149/x
We should also be on the lookout for asymptomatic cases, as they can significantly contribute in adding to infections, should they go unchecked; We need more testing in general, as well as of asymptomatics:
We should also be on the lookout for asymptomatic cases, as they can significantly contribute in adding to infections, should they go unchecked; We need more testing in general, as well as of asymptomatics:
107 Infizierte in Folge eines Gottesdienstes in Frankfurt!! spiegel.de/panorama/coron…
Eine eindrückliche Meldung, die gut zum Thema meines verlinkten Threads passt– die sehr heterogene #Ansteckungsrate von #Coronavirus #SARSCoV2 #COVID19! Ein paar Worte dazu jetzt auf deutsch!
1/15
Eine eindrückliche Meldung, die gut zum Thema meines verlinkten Threads passt– die sehr heterogene #Ansteckungsrate von #Coronavirus #SARSCoV2 #COVID19! Ein paar Worte dazu jetzt auf deutsch!
1/15
In dem langen, sehr guten (aber englischen) Thread von @kakape und auch in dem dort genannten ausgesprochen interessanten Manuskript (covid.idmod.org/data/Stochasti…) geht es in erster Linie darum, wie ungleichmäßig sich das aktuelle #Coronavirus ausbreitet und was das bedeutet.
2/15
2/15
In knappen Worten: der #R0-Wert einer Infektion gibt an, wieviele Personen jeder Infizierte IM MITTEL ansteckt. Die Zahl verändert sich im Lauf einer Epidemie (durch #Maßnahmen aber auch durch zunehmende #Immunität) und heisst dann Rt. Für #SARSCoV2 ist R0 grob 2,5.
3/15
3/15
Despite COVID-19 deaths topping 10,000 in the U.S and case numbers surpassing 350K+, 79% of Fox “News” consumers who responded to a Pew Research survey believe the media “slightly or greatly exaggerated” the risk of the pandemic. | via @VanityFair 🦊😷vanityfair.com/news/2020/04/f…
How Trump and his gang of intransigent @GOP Governors are fundamentally incapable of managing #COVID19 altruistically b/c their profit motives & false pride take top priority, but Democrats are turning the tide with science & empathy | via @RickSmithShow podbean.com/ei/pb-imrkd-d8…
“Two Texas prison units are on a complete lockdown after most of their inmate population was placed in medical restriction for possible exposure to COVID-19...”
| via @HoustonChron 😬😷 houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-t…
| via @HoustonChron 😬😷 houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-t…
Are people grasping the sheer level of unrepentant, unapologetic cowardice on display from @GregAbbott_TX and the @TexasGOP right now? 🧐 Their heads are so far up Trump’s ass that they won’t even take the “risk” of demonstrating competent leadership in a global health crisis.
Abbott thinks he’s slick and is using linguistic gymnastics & the patchwork system of local govt/states’ rights to both downplay the threat of Coronavirus for Trump *and* work behind the scenes to handle the problem internally at the same time. 😒 3/19/20: rev.com/blog/transcrip…
These red state Republicans are talking out of both sides of their mouths on #COVID19 b/c keeping the profit margins healthy at their fave businesses and appeasing #TemperTantrumTrump are way higher priorities for them than protecting/saving lives. “Pro-life” is a habitual LIE.
