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#ExtremeWeather #Emnati #TCEmnati Update:

Recent @NOAA GFS simulation model runs for #Emnati are continuing to show the storm turning towards the south as it is north of Reunion island which would mitigate the worst threats to #Madagscar.

Impact comment from RMSC/@MeteoFrance
The model guidance though is unclear (image below shows latest @ECMWF model landfall solution). The numerical model guidance is discussed from the same @MeteoFrance advisory issued at midnight.

The official track still shows catastrophic landfall in #Batsirai affected areas.
@ECMWF @meteofrance Spaghetti ensemble runs below for GEFS (L) and EPS (R) (right).] These show the current trajectory disagreement clearly.

[HT to @WXNB_ : ]
As he says an improved impact outcome for Madagascar will likely mean a worse result for La Reunion.
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