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2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander

A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)

To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter ImageImageImageImage
Methodology:

I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf

Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-… ImageImageImage
Read 111 tweets
Today, the Texas Senate is expected to consider the committee substitute for #SB6, the proposed map for Texas' 38 congressional districts, and several floor amendments.

We'll be live-tweeting on this 🧵 once it begins. Follow along: tlcsenate.granicus.com/MediaPlayer.ph…
#txlege #redistricting
Here's what #SB6, the proposed Congressional map (PLANC2116), currently looks like as voted out by the Senate #Redistricting Committee.

Viewer: dvr.capitol.texas.gov/Congress/0/PLA… #txlege Image
There were 12 pre-filed amendments for #SB6, the proposed TX Congressional map: dvr.capitol.texas.gov/Congress/44 #txlege #redistricting
Read 53 tweets
A rundown of how much TX GOP's proposed map would shore up nine of their own incumbents who badly need it:

#TX02 Crenshaw: Trump +1 to Trump +23
#TX03 Taylor: Trump +1 to Trump +15
#TX06 Ellzey: Trump +3 to Trump +20
#TX10 McCaul: Trump +2 to Trump +20
Continued...

#TX21 Roy: Trump +3 to Trump +20
#TX22 Nehls: Trump +1 to Trump +15
#TX23 Gonzales: Trump +2 to Trump +7
#TX24 Van Duyne: Biden +5 to Trump +12
#TX31 Carter: Trump +3 to Trump +20
The reason I was mildly surprised: Republicans could have drawn #TX03, #TX22 & #TX24 to be even redder.

All three GOP seats moved 25+ pts left between 2012 and 2020, and as proposed they could easily be vulnerable again by the middle of the 2020s.
Read 3 tweets
Texas Republicans' proposed congressional map is up and analyzed on the @FiveThirtyEight redistricting tracker: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
@FiveThirtyEight The map shores up #TX07, #TX28, #TX32, and #TX34 for Dems and adds a new solid-blue #TX37 in Austin. In exchange, #TX02, #TX03, #TX06, #TX10, #TX21, #TX22, #TX23, #TX24, and #TX31 are made safer for their Republican incumbents.
Dem Rep. Vicente Gonzalez's #TX15 also becomes a bit redder, but still a tossup, under this map. I wonder if he moves over to the safe blue #TX34, whence Rep. Filemon Vela is retiring. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Read 4 tweets
Wow. This isn't even as aggressive a map as I expected from Texas Rs. It could plausibly be 24R-14D, w/ the chance Rs add seats in the Rio Grande Valley & Dems gain in DFW burbs over the course of the 2020s.
A few early highlights/impressions:
- a new Dem #TX37 in Austin
- a new GOP #TX38 in Houston (for Wesley Hunt?)
- no new Hispanic majority seat (lawsuit?)
- #TX15 Gonzalez (D) made redder
- #TX03 Taylor (R) & #TX24 Van Duyne (R) not shored up quite as much as I'd have expected
Another surprise: this GOP proposal doesn't shore up #TX21 Rep. Chip Roy (R) by nearly as much as it could have. He's still got a chunk of Travis Co.

The much bigger winners: #TX02 Crenshaw, #TX10 McCaul, #TX22 Nehls, #TX25 Williams, #TX31 Carter.
Read 6 tweets
Proposed Texas congressional map is out: data.capitol.texas.gov/dataset/cf8703… #txlege
The two new seats go to the Austin and Houston areas
.@RepMcCaul loses Harris County in #TX10
Read 16 tweets
hello! While we're waiting for more presidential results, I thought I'd give you an update on the House. @DecisionDeskHQ projects that Republicans have won back 5 seats on net so far. Rs flipped 7 seats and Dems won back 2 thanks to redistricting in NC businessinsider.com/2020-house-ele…
Seats projected to flip D to R, per @DecisionDeskHQ

#IA01 ( Finkenauer)
#FL26 (Mucarsel-Powell)
#FL27 (Shalala)
#MN07 (Peterson)
#NM02 (Torres Small)
#OK05 ( Horn)
#SC01 (Cunningham)

Others to keep an eye on as more votes are counted: #CA21, #CA39, #NY11, #NY22, #UT04
Democrats have also fallen short on many of their offensive targets to flip R-held seats: their most promising pickup opportunity is #GA07, where @DecisionDesk HQ has not projected a winner and we should (hopefully!) get more clarity today as more votes are counted/reported
Read 4 tweets
Check it out!
ALL Democratic Candidates 50 STATES
#Congress2020 Govs AGs SoS
Postcards (Print&Share)& Donations Links
#PostcardsforAmerica
postcardsforamerica.com/all-democratic…
Ready-made Tweets&Posts for each Candidate
postcardsforamerica.com/all-dem-candid…
FB Albums facebook.com/pg/postcards4U…
Mega-THREAD Image
ALABAMA Democratic Candidates
#AL1 #AL2 #AL3 #AL4 #AL7 & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links for each candidate.Follow & Support!
FB
facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
GoogleDoc pc2a.info/DemCandidatesAL
THREAD
#PostcardsforAmerica Image
ALASKA Democratic Congressional Candidates
Alaska-At-Large & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
#HoldTheHouse #FlipTheSenate
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links
Follow & Support!
Thread:
Shareable Facebook Post: facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
#PostcardsforAmerica Image
Read 51 tweets
Check it out!
ALL Democratic Candidates 50 STATES
#Congress2020 Govs AGs SoS
Postcards (Print & Share!) & Links to Follow & Support!
#PostcardsforAmerica
postcardsforamerica.com/all-democratic…
Ready-made Tweets&Posts for each Candidate
postcardsforamerica.com/all-dem-candid…
FB Albums facebook.com/pg/postcards4U…
ALABAMA Democratic Candidates
#AL1 #AL2 #AL3 #AL4 #AL7 & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links for each candidate.Follow & Support!
FB
facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
GoogleDoc pc2a.info/DemCandidatesAL
THREAD
#PostcardsforAmerica
ALASKA Democratic Congressional Candidates
Alaska-At-Large & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
#HoldTheHouse #FlipTheSenate
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links
Follow & Support!
Thread:
Shareable Facebook Post: facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
#PostcardsforAmerica
Read 51 tweets
Thread of progressive candidates (Updated 9/30) including #NotMeUs and some combo #NotMeUs + #YangGang! These are candidates in competitive races (🔺@GOP ; 🔹Dem; 🌻Green ▫️other Independent) & I’ll be adding to (sometimes editing) thread #Election2020 
⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️
@Bradshaw2020🔹is an amazing candidate who won a shocking victory @USSenate primary #TN! Gen Against @BillHagertyTN🔺! Endorsed by @BernieSanders! #NotMeUs #Election2020 
📌Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/marquit…
📌Volunteer: mobilize.us/bradshawforsen…
📌Website: marquitabradshaw.com
Read 38 tweets
Michael McCaul is one of the wealthiest members of Congress.

He’s also one of the most corrupt.

A THREAD:
McCaul’s personal wealth has increased over 940% while in public office. #TX10
McCaul voted to deregulate big banks while he had millions invested in companies like CitiGroup, Bank of America, and J.P. Morgan Chase.
Read 8 tweets
Check it out!
THREAD of all the Democratic Candidates!
50 STATES #Congress2020, Govs, AGs, SoS
With Postcards & Links to Follow & Support!
postcardsforamerica.com/all-democratic…
Ready-made Tweets & Posts for each Candidate here
postcardsforamerica.com/all-dem-candid…
FB Albums: facebook.com/pg/postcards4U…
ALABAMA Democratic Candidates
#AL1 #AL2 #AL3 #AL4 #AL7 & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links for each candidate.Follow & Support!
FB
facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
GoogleDoc pc2a.info/DemCandidatesAL
THREAD
#PostcardsforAmerica
ALASKA Democratic Congressional Candidates
Alaska-At-Large & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
#HoldTheHouse #FlipTheSenate
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links
Follow & Support!
Thread:
Shareable Facebook Post: facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
#PostcardsforAmerica
Read 51 tweets
We have 44 days until the general election! This thread will have a list of vetted candidates who support Medicare For All & a Green New Deal! Let's flip the Senate Progressive & Expand the Squad in Congress! Please Donate or Volunteer! #FlipTheSenate #ExpandTheSquad

⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️
.@paulajean2020 is running for Senate in WV against Shelley Moore Capito. While being blacked out by the media, Paula Jean has a real shot of Winning this Senate Seat. She's endorsed by the sunrise movement & Bernie Sanders along with many others! paulajean.com
.@Bradshaw2020 is running for Senate in Tennessee. She won her primary with a surprising upset & now is ready to bring an upset to the General too. She's endorsed by the Sunrise movement, @marwilliamson, Elizabeth Warren & many more. marquitabradshaw.com
Read 34 tweets
It’s 2020, and Waller County Republicans are still suppressing the votes of Black students at @PVAMU in #TX10.

A THREAD:
Prairie View A&M is Texas’ second oldest institution of higher learning, an HBCU built on top of a slave plantation.

Since the 1970’s, students have fought for voting rights against a Republican-conrolled county government seeking to deny the franchise.
In 1979, Prairie View students won a landmark Supreme Court battle giving students everywhere the right to register and vote wherever they attend college.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Symm_v._U…
Read 8 tweets
All hands on deck!
On #PostcardsforAmerica website
All Democratic Candidates for ALL 50 STATES #Congress2020, Govs, AGs & SoS
Links (& Postcards) to Follow & Support:
postcardsforamerica.com/all-democratic…
& ➡️ postcardsforamerica.com/all-dem-candid…

Update Sep 12
mega-THREAD Image
ALABAMA Democratic Candidates
#AL1 #AL2 #AL3 #AL4 #AL7 & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links for each candidate.Follow & Support!
FB
facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
GoogleDoc pc2a.info/DemCandidatesAL
THREAD
#PostcardsforAmerica Image
ALASKA Democratic Congressional Candidates
Alaska-At-Large & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
#HoldTheHouse #FlipTheSenate
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links
Follow & Support!
Thread:
Shareable Facebook Post: facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
#PostcardsforAmerica Image
Read 50 tweets
Want to check out all Democratic Candidates?
Pages on the #PostcardsforAmerica website with all Democratic Candidates for ALL 50 STATES #Congress2020, Govs, AGs & SoS
Postcards & Links to Follow & Support:
postcardsforamerica.com/all-democratic…
& ➡️ postcardsforamerica.com/all-dem-candid…

& follow @NDLB2020 Image
ALABAMA Democratic Candidates
#AL1 #AL2 #AL3 #AL4 #AL7 & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links for each candidate.Follow & Support!
FB
facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
GoogleDoc pc2a.info/DemCandidatesAL
THREAD
#PostcardsforAmerica Image
ALASKA Democratic Congressional Candidates
Alaska-At-Large & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
#HoldTheHouse #FlipTheSenate
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links
Follow & Support!
Thread:
Shareable Facebook Post: facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
#PostcardsforAmerica Image
Read 50 tweets
[THREAD]

Cori Bush defied the odds and defeated a political dynasty.

Jamaal Bowman won with 55.4%

We’ve had so many historic progressive wins, but it doesn’t end here! Let’s get progressives like those listed below in office!
Screw “Blue Wave”, lets make a #ProgressiveFlood!
1. @EdMarkey
Running for Senate: #Massachusetts

Supports: the Green New Deal and Medicare For All

His primary Election Day is September 1st

#ProgressiveFlood

For more info go to: edmarkey.com
2. @AlexBMorse
District: #MA01

Supports: Medicare For All, Universal Basic Income, $15 Minimum Wage, Cancel Student Debt, and Free College Tuition.

His primary Election Day is September 1st.

#ProgressiveFlood

For more info go to: alexmorseforcongress.com
Read 98 tweets
.@RepDonBacon (R-#NE02): "This (USPS) Bill was not perfect, but the critical role the postal service plays in our country and the fact the postal system will become insolvent next year led me to vote in support." bacon.house.gov/news/documents…
.@RepBost (R-#IL12): "While Congress approved additional funding today with my support, I still share President Trump’s concerns over the process in place for counting an unprecedented number of votes by mail." bost.house.gov/media-center/p…
Rep. @VernBuchanan (R-#FL16): "Millions of Americans, especially seniors, depend on a healthy and functioning Postal Service. I voted for the bill today to make sure the Postal Service has the resources to deliver the mail."
Read 17 tweets
It is appalling that multi-millionaire Rep. Michael McCaul and Texas Republicans are fighting tooth and nail to strip healthcare from millions during a global pandemic and economic crisis.

A THREAD: politico.com/news/2020/08/1…
During this pandemic, McCaul voted against a common sense amendment that would prevent public money from funding this lawsuit aimed to take away healthcare coverage from 23 million Americans.
clerk.house.gov/Votes/2020175
McCaul repeatedly voted to support this lawsuit, and his family fortune helped fund these efforts through the Texas Public Policy Foundation, which recently fought to block paid sick leave from hundreds of thousands of working Texans.
Read 4 tweets
YES-MAN MCCAUL, BACK AT IT AGAIN #TX10

Trump’s favorite coward @repmccaul is once again running interference for Trump’s blatant moves toward outright fascism. A THREAD:
In an interview last night, @repmccaul attacked the White House Press Corps, advancing Trump’s ‘fake news’ narrative because reporters had the AUDACITY to question the violent crackdown on Portland by federal agents & Trump’s plans to expand this horror nationwide. #TX10
As Chairman of House Homeland Security Committee, 2013-19, @repmccaul consistently advocated more aggressive DHS activities, including abridgments of civil liberties as he pushed for bloated growth & mission creep. McCaul remains unwavering in this project today.
Read 8 tweets
Y’all.

@RepMcCaul is trying to show he cares about the human beings of this district.

But it’s weird — the people "making calls” just seem like actors. (Notice the screen on this one.)

As our friend @BetoORourke would say: true to form. #TX10 Image
Of course, this is a guy who hasn’t spent real time in the Texas 10th in a solid 12 years.

No town halls. No unscripted Q&A.

Here’s an example: he voted two dozen times to repeal Obamacare, but couldn’t bother to meet his own constituents. #TX10
austinchronicle.com/news/2017-03-0…
Not to mention his drafting the Muslim Ban.

Presiding over Family Separation.

Ignoring warnings about flood risk in Houston.

Covering for the GOP on COVID-19.

How about you? Any #McCaulStories to tell? #TX10
Read 3 tweets
Progressives won in each of tonight's ideologically contrasted House primaries in Texas -- Mike Siegel in #TX10, Candace Valenzuela in #TX24. Each of these districts is GOP-held & Democratic-targeted, and should be hotly disputed this fall down and way-up the ballot.
But there's also a big loss for progressives in Texas: State Senator Eddie Lucio, a conservative Democrat who backed the 2017 'bathroom bill' for instance, beat back challenger Sara Barrera. Some context here: texastribune.org/2020/07/09/tex…
The DCCC was ready to go tonight with an internal showing Valenzuela leading in this GOP-held open seat (#TX24), so a quick way for them to signal they're ready to prioritize it.

Read 3 tweets
FIVE YEARS AGO TODAY #SandraBland was found hanged in a Waller County jail cell in #TX10.

Say her name and continue to fight for justice! #BlackLivesMatter

A THREAD:
(📷 = HBO) Image
At 28, #SandraBland was one of 5 sisters from IL, a graduate of the HBCU @PVAMU where she played trombone, worked as a summer counselor, & volunteered for a senior citizens advocacy.

Throughout 2015, she was passionately outspoken on social media condemning police brutality.
On July 10th, 2015, #SandraBland was driving to @PVAMU to begin a summer program associate job when she was pulled over & brutally arrested for *failure to signal*. Like #GeorgeFloyd, Bland experienced a crushing knee to the neck.
usatoday.com/story/opinion/…
Read 9 tweets
This campaign has the MOMENTUM in #TX10!

This week alone we've made nearly 50K calls! And we are closing in on 150K since March 3.

This is how we are going to beat McCaul in November — with a massive, people-powered movement. Image
In 2018 #TX10 was a "safe" gerrymandered GOP seat that experts said was unwinnable for a Democrat.

We built a broad coalition—activists, labor, youth & more—and did the work, making 100s of 1000s of voter contacts & narrowing McCaul's advantage from 19% to 4% in one cycle.
We've built an unstoppable coalition as the July 14 runoff approaches.

Every Democratic club, every union, every enviro group, nat'l leaders like Warren & Sanders & more.

Help us finish the job — and send Trump-loving McCaul to an early retirement. secure.actblue.com/donate/siegel-…
Read 3 tweets

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