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2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
Methodology:
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
Big shakeup in DCCC's House battlefield this AM. The committee named 12 challengers to its "Red to Blue" program, added 3 members to its "Frontline" program, added 8 new GOP/Dem districts to its "In Play" list, and removed 6 GOP-held districts from its target list.
Red to Blue challengers:
#CA22: @RudySalasCA
#CA45: @jfchen
#CO07: @pettersen4co
#IA01: @BohannanIowa
#IA02: @LizMathis1
#IL13: @Nikki4Congress
#MI03: @HillaryScholten
#NM02: @Gabe_NM
#NY01: @VoteJackie4NY
#NY11: @MaxRose4NY
#OH01: @votelandsman
#OH13: @EmiliaSykesOH
#CA22: @RudySalasCA
#CA45: @jfchen
#CO07: @pettersen4co
#IA01: @BohannanIowa
#IA02: @LizMathis1
#IL13: @Nikki4Congress
#MI03: @HillaryScholten
#NM02: @Gabe_NM
#NY01: @VoteJackie4NY
#NY11: @MaxRose4NY
#OH01: @votelandsman
#OH13: @EmiliaSykesOH
NEW List of Dem candidates running for Congress in 2022 against GOP incumbents! Please take a minute and follow them! It’s the least we can do to show our support for the folks who are literally trying to save our democracy! RESISTERS RESIST #VoteThemAllOut2022
@abbybroyles vs Stephanie Bice House #OK05 electoral objector
@adammgentle vs Mario Diaz Balart House #FL25 electoral objector
@AlishaKShelton vs Don Bacon House #NE02
@AndreaRSalinas House #OR06
@AngieNixon vs Scott Franklin House #FL14 electoral objector
@adammgentle vs Mario Diaz Balart House #FL25 electoral objector
@AlishaKShelton vs Don Bacon House #NE02
@AndreaRSalinas House #OR06
@AngieNixon vs Scott Franklin House #FL14 electoral objector
@AnnieAndrewsMD vs Nancy Mace House #SC01
@anthonyjtristan vs Michael Cloud House #TX27 electoral objector
@ashley_ehasz vs Brian Fitzpatrick House #PA01
@AramisAyalaFL House #FL10
@atticaforky House #KY03
@baxterstapleton vs Michael Turner House #OH10
@anthonyjtristan vs Michael Cloud House #TX27 electoral objector
@ashley_ehasz vs Brian Fitzpatrick House #PA01
@AramisAyalaFL House #FL10
@atticaforky House #KY03
@baxterstapleton vs Michael Turner House #OH10
Today, the Texas Senate is expected to consider the committee substitute for #SB6, the proposed map for Texas' 38 congressional districts, and several floor amendments.
We'll be live-tweeting on this 🧵 once it begins. Follow along: tlcsenate.granicus.com/MediaPlayer.ph…
#txlege #redistricting
We'll be live-tweeting on this 🧵 once it begins. Follow along: tlcsenate.granicus.com/MediaPlayer.ph…
#txlege #redistricting
Here's what #SB6, the proposed Congressional map (PLANC2116), currently looks like as voted out by the Senate #Redistricting Committee.
Viewer: dvr.capitol.texas.gov/Congress/0/PLA… #txlege
Viewer: dvr.capitol.texas.gov/Congress/0/PLA… #txlege
There were 12 pre-filed amendments for #SB6, the proposed TX Congressional map: dvr.capitol.texas.gov/Congress/44 #txlege #redistricting
The Senate #Redistricting Committee is meeting now to hear invited and public testimony on the new proposed Congressional maps, #SB6. We'll be live-tweeting on this 🧵. Follow along
Here's the map: dvr.capitol.texas.gov/Congress/14/PL…
Live-stream: tlcsenate.granicus.com/MediaPlayer.ph…
#txlege
Here's the map: dvr.capitol.texas.gov/Congress/14/PL…
Live-stream: tlcsenate.granicus.com/MediaPlayer.ph…
#txlege
.@joanhuffman says they'll start w/invited witnesses, who were recommended by Senate Redistricting Cmte members. She says next week, the cmte will vote on amendments and #SB6 overall. #txlege
1st invited witness is Gloria Leal, #Redistricting Chair for State @LULAC & on behalf of Pres. @Domingotexas.
Her #SB6 testimony will be somewhat general since they haven't had enough time to fully analyze the maps but plan on submitting more testimony/amendments later. #txlege
Her #SB6 testimony will be somewhat general since they haven't had enough time to fully analyze the maps but plan on submitting more testimony/amendments later. #txlege
A rundown of how much TX GOP's proposed map would shore up nine of their own incumbents who badly need it:
#TX02 Crenshaw: Trump +1 to Trump +23
#TX03 Taylor: Trump +1 to Trump +15
#TX06 Ellzey: Trump +3 to Trump +20
#TX10 McCaul: Trump +2 to Trump +20
#TX02 Crenshaw: Trump +1 to Trump +23
#TX03 Taylor: Trump +1 to Trump +15
#TX06 Ellzey: Trump +3 to Trump +20
#TX10 McCaul: Trump +2 to Trump +20
Texas Republicans' proposed congressional map is up and analyzed on the @FiveThirtyEight redistricting tracker: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
@FiveThirtyEight The map shores up #TX07, #TX28, #TX32, and #TX34 for Dems and adds a new solid-blue #TX37 in Austin. In exchange, #TX02, #TX03, #TX06, #TX10, #TX21, #TX22, #TX23, #TX24, and #TX31 are made safer for their Republican incumbents.
Dem Rep. Vicente Gonzalez's #TX15 also becomes a bit redder, but still a tossup, under this map. I wonder if he moves over to the safe blue #TX34, whence Rep. Filemon Vela is retiring. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Wow. This isn't even as aggressive a map as I expected from Texas Rs. It could plausibly be 24R-14D, w/ the chance Rs add seats in the Rio Grande Valley & Dems gain in DFW burbs over the course of the 2020s.
Proposed Texas congressional map is out: data.capitol.texas.gov/dataset/cf8703… #txlege
The two new seats go to the Austin and Houston areas
.@RepMcCaul loses Harris County in #TX10
Texas is set to gain three seats, and Republicans will likely try to expand their current 23R-13D edge to a 26R-13D edge - all while adding at least one new Hispanic majority seat and a new Dem seat in Austin. Here's how...
First, Rs would "pack" the districts held by Houston Rep. Lizzie Fletcher (D) #TX07 and Dallas Rep. Collin Allred (D) #TX32 w/ Dems, converting Fletcher's seat into a Hispanic majority seat. That would ease the creation of two new safe suburban R seats, #TX38 and #TX39.
Next, instead of dividing Austin six ways, Rs would create a new overwhelmingly blue Travis Co. seat (#TX37 here). The tradeoff? It would protect surrounding R districts against heavy D vote growth along the I-35 corridor for the next decade.
Of the nation's current 435 House districts, 226 voted for Trump in '16 and 209 voted for Clinton.
Based on my initial analysis, Biden carried 216, Trump carried 208 and 11 remain too close to call. But it's pretty clear to me Biden is on track for a narrow majority.
Based on my initial analysis, Biden carried 216, Trump carried 208 and 11 remain too close to call. But it's pretty clear to me Biden is on track for a narrow majority.
THREAD
One thing that’s striking about the Republicans who have flipped House seats so far: They are all women, minorities, or veterans (in many cases two of three). nationalreview.com/2020/11/meet-t…
One thing that’s striking about the Republicans who have flipped House seats so far: They are all women, minorities, or veterans (in many cases two of three). nationalreview.com/2020/11/meet-t…
In Southern California, Young Kim and Michelle Steel flipped Democratic seats.
A Korean-American woman had never been elected to the U.S. Congress until Steel, Kim, and Democrat Marilyn Strickland of Washington won this November.
A Korean-American woman had never been elected to the U.S. Congress until Steel, Kim, and Democrat Marilyn Strickland of Washington won this November.
In Oklahoma City, Republican state senator Stephanie Bice flipped a Democratic seat, becoming the first Iranian-American ever elected to the U.S. Congress.
hello! While we're waiting for more presidential results, I thought I'd give you an update on the House. @DecisionDeskHQ projects that Republicans have won back 5 seats on net so far. Rs flipped 7 seats and Dems won back 2 thanks to redistricting in NC businessinsider.com/2020-house-ele…
Seats projected to flip D to R, per @DecisionDeskHQ
#IA01 ( Finkenauer)
#FL26 (Mucarsel-Powell)
#FL27 (Shalala)
#MN07 (Peterson)
#NM02 (Torres Small)
#OK05 ( Horn)
#SC01 (Cunningham)
Others to keep an eye on as more votes are counted: #CA21, #CA39, #NY11, #NY22, #UT04
#IA01 ( Finkenauer)
#FL26 (Mucarsel-Powell)
#FL27 (Shalala)
#MN07 (Peterson)
#NM02 (Torres Small)
#OK05 ( Horn)
#SC01 (Cunningham)
Others to keep an eye on as more votes are counted: #CA21, #CA39, #NY11, #NY22, #UT04
Democrats have also fallen short on many of their offensive targets to flip R-held seats: their most promising pickup opportunity is #GA07, where @DecisionDesk HQ has not projected a winner and we should (hopefully!) get more clarity today as more votes are counted/reported
Check it out!
ALL Democratic Candidates 50 STATES
#Congress2020 Govs AGs SoS
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ALL Democratic Candidates 50 STATES
#Congress2020 Govs AGs SoS
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ALABAMA Democratic Candidates
#AL1 #AL2 #AL3 #AL4 #AL7 & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
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#AL1 #AL2 #AL3 #AL4 #AL7 & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
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#PostcardsforAmerica
ALASKA Democratic Congressional Candidates
Alaska-At-Large & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
#HoldTheHouse #FlipTheSenate
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Alaska-At-Large & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
#HoldTheHouse #FlipTheSenate
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Check it out!
ALL Democratic Candidates 50 STATES
#Congress2020 Govs AGs SoS
Postcards (Print & Share!) & Links to Follow & Support!
#PostcardsforAmerica
postcardsforamerica.com/all-democratic…
Ready-made Tweets&Posts for each Candidate
postcardsforamerica.com/all-dem-candid…
FB Albums facebook.com/pg/postcards4U…
ALL Democratic Candidates 50 STATES
#Congress2020 Govs AGs SoS
Postcards (Print & Share!) & Links to Follow & Support!
#PostcardsforAmerica
postcardsforamerica.com/all-democratic…
Ready-made Tweets&Posts for each Candidate
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ALABAMA Democratic Candidates
#AL1 #AL2 #AL3 #AL4 #AL7 & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links for each candidate.Follow & Support!
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facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
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#PostcardsforAmerica
#AL1 #AL2 #AL3 #AL4 #AL7 & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
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ALASKA Democratic Congressional Candidates
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#Congress2020 #Senate2020
#HoldTheHouse #FlipTheSenate
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Alaska-At-Large & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
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Check it out!
THREAD of all the Democratic Candidates!
50 STATES #Congress2020, Govs, AGs, SoS
With Postcards & Links to Follow & Support!
postcardsforamerica.com/all-democratic…
Ready-made Tweets & Posts for each Candidate here
postcardsforamerica.com/all-dem-candid…
FB Albums: facebook.com/pg/postcards4U…
THREAD of all the Democratic Candidates!
50 STATES #Congress2020, Govs, AGs, SoS
With Postcards & Links to Follow & Support!
postcardsforamerica.com/all-democratic…
Ready-made Tweets & Posts for each Candidate here
postcardsforamerica.com/all-dem-candid…
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ALABAMA Democratic Candidates
#AL1 #AL2 #AL3 #AL4 #AL7 & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
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#AL1 #AL2 #AL3 #AL4 #AL7 & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
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ALASKA Democratic Congressional Candidates
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#Congress2020 #Senate2020
#HoldTheHouse #FlipTheSenate
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Getting this thread going on what races to donate to….
Right now, 44 days out, is the best time to donate. A few states are early voting. Voters are paying attention and can still register.
Campaigns can still hire staff and pay for strategic, targeted ads and mailers.
Right now, 44 days out, is the best time to donate. A few states are early voting. Voters are paying attention and can still register.
Campaigns can still hire staff and pay for strategic, targeted ads and mailers.
Money thrown at races in Oct goes into media spin. Unclear if it's effective at persuasion.
Millions of $$$ from out of state donors, raised by national orgs, doesn't mean your race is competitive. So it's doubly important for us to pick a few races/states and be strategic.
Millions of $$$ from out of state donors, raised by national orgs, doesn't mean your race is competitive. So it's doubly important for us to pick a few races/states and be strategic.
It's sweet to ragedonate for RBG. But it's smarter to flip the Senate, cement the House majority, and win key states in the electoral college. All states and races aren't equal.
A few thousand $ to a House race or $1 million to an underfunded Senate race can make the difference.
A few thousand $ to a House race or $1 million to an underfunded Senate race can make the difference.
All hands on deck!
On #PostcardsforAmerica website
All Democratic Candidates for ALL 50 STATES #Congress2020, Govs, AGs & SoS
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Update Sep 12
mega-THREAD
On #PostcardsforAmerica website
All Democratic Candidates for ALL 50 STATES #Congress2020, Govs, AGs & SoS
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Update Sep 12
mega-THREAD
ALABAMA Democratic Candidates
#AL1 #AL2 #AL3 #AL4 #AL7 & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
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#PostcardsforAmerica
#AL1 #AL2 #AL3 #AL4 #AL7 & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
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#PostcardsforAmerica
ALASKA Democratic Congressional Candidates
Alaska-At-Large & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
#HoldTheHouse #FlipTheSenate
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Alaska-At-Large & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
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Want to check out all Democratic Candidates?
Pages on the #PostcardsforAmerica website with all Democratic Candidates for ALL 50 STATES #Congress2020, Govs, AGs & SoS
Postcards & Links to Follow & Support:
postcardsforamerica.com/all-democratic…
& ➡️ postcardsforamerica.com/all-dem-candid…
& follow @NDLB2020
Pages on the #PostcardsforAmerica website with all Democratic Candidates for ALL 50 STATES #Congress2020, Govs, AGs & SoS
Postcards & Links to Follow & Support:
postcardsforamerica.com/all-democratic…
& ➡️ postcardsforamerica.com/all-dem-candid…
& follow @NDLB2020
ALABAMA Democratic Candidates
#AL1 #AL2 #AL3 #AL4 #AL7 & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links for each candidate.Follow & Support!
FB
facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
GoogleDoc pc2a.info/DemCandidatesAL
THREAD
#PostcardsforAmerica
#AL1 #AL2 #AL3 #AL4 #AL7 & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links for each candidate.Follow & Support!
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facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
GoogleDoc pc2a.info/DemCandidatesAL
THREAD
#PostcardsforAmerica
ALASKA Democratic Congressional Candidates
Alaska-At-Large & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
#HoldTheHouse #FlipTheSenate
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Thread:
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Alaska-At-Large & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
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.@RepDonBacon (R-#NE02): "This (USPS) Bill was not perfect, but the critical role the postal service plays in our country and the fact the postal system will become insolvent next year led me to vote in support." bacon.house.gov/news/documents…
.@RepBost (R-#IL12): "While Congress approved additional funding today with my support, I still share President Trump’s concerns over the process in place for counting an unprecedented number of votes by mail." bost.house.gov/media-center/p…
Rep. @VernBuchanan (R-#FL16): "Millions of Americans, especially seniors, depend on a healthy and functioning Postal Service. I voted for the bill today to make sure the Postal Service has the resources to deliver the mail."
Help make it happen! Follow and support:
#AR02 @xjelliott
#AZ06 @hiral4congress
#CA25 @ChristyforCA25
#FL16 @GoodforFlorida
#GA07 @Carolyn4GA7
#IL13 @BetsyforIL
#IN05 @HaleIndy
#KS02 @Michelle4Kansas
#MI03 @HillaryScholten
#MN08 @QuinnNystrom
#AR02 @xjelliott
#AZ06 @hiral4congress
#CA25 @ChristyforCA25
#FL16 @GoodforFlorida
#GA07 @Carolyn4GA7
#IL13 @BetsyforIL
#IN05 @HaleIndy
#KS02 @Michelle4Kansas
#MI03 @HillaryScholten
#MN08 @QuinnNystrom
These women can FLIP seats in November:
#MO02 @JillSchupp
#MTAL @WilliamsForMT
#NE02 @karaforcongress
#NY01 @ngoroff
#NY02 @VoteJackie4NY
#NY21 @TedraCobb
#NY24 @dana_balter
#NC02 @DeborahRossNC
#NC06 @KathyManningNC
#NC08 @TimmonsGoodson
#MO02 @JillSchupp
#MTAL @WilliamsForMT
#NE02 @karaforcongress
#NY01 @ngoroff
#NY02 @VoteJackie4NY
#NY21 @TedraCobb
#NY24 @dana_balter
#NC02 @DeborahRossNC
#NC06 @KathyManningNC
#NC08 @TimmonsGoodson
Make sure you’re supporting all of the incredible women who can help EXPAND the House majority:
#OH01 @KateForCongress
#OH10 @TimsDesiree
#PA01 @FinelloForPA
#TX02 @SimaforTX
#TX21 @wendydavis
#TX23 @GinaOrtizJones
#TX24 @candacefor24
#WA03 @ElectLong
#OH01 @KateForCongress
#OH10 @TimsDesiree
#PA01 @FinelloForPA
#TX02 @SimaforTX
#TX21 @wendydavis
#TX23 @GinaOrtizJones
#TX24 @candacefor24
#WA03 @ElectLong
It appears that @parscale is using his position as Trump’s campaign manager to manipulate the outcome of the Republican run-off election in #Texas #CD23.
Tony Gonzales vs Raul Reyes (1/9)
Tony Gonzales vs Raul Reyes (1/9)
Both candidates have expressed their support for Trump, yet in an interview with the San Antonio Express on 9/30/19 , #Gonzales stated that he was “concerned by revelations of Trump’s entreaties to Ukraine to investigate Joe Biden.” (2/10)
In the same article, #Gonzales stated that “he hadn’t fully developed a position one way or the other on the upcoming #impeachment proceedings.” (3/10)
Record number of GOPs leaving Congress!
(27 now & counting...)
Incumbents win 90% of the time.
With these gone, #NoSafeSeats
Below is a THREAD of all the Democratic Candidates for those seats!
Support them!
#Congress2020
Updated (again, because more keep leaving) DECEMBER
(27 now & counting...)
Incumbents win 90% of the time.
With these gone, #NoSafeSeats
Below is a THREAD of all the Democratic Candidates for those seats!
Support them!
#Congress2020
Updated (again, because more keep leaving) DECEMBER
GOP @BradleyByrne is leaving Alabama District 1
Democratic Candidates for #AL1 are:
James Averhart
jamesaverhart.com
@James4congress1
and
Kiani Arkus Gardner
College Instructor & Biologist
kianigardner.com
@KianiGardner
#Congress2020 #VoteBlueToSaveAmerica
THREAD
Democratic Candidates for #AL1 are:
James Averhart
jamesaverhart.com
@James4congress1
and
Kiani Arkus Gardner
College Instructor & Biologist
kianigardner.com
@KianiGardner
#Congress2020 #VoteBlueToSaveAmerica
THREAD
Martha Roby is leaving!
Democratic Candidates Alabama District 2
#AL2
Phyllis Harvey-Hall
Community Activist and Retired Educator
harveyhall2congress.com
Nathan Mathis
Farmer & former State Rep
@olenate2020
#Congress2020
THREAD
Democratic Candidates Alabama District 2
#AL2
Phyllis Harvey-Hall
Community Activist and Retired Educator
harveyhall2congress.com
Nathan Mathis
Farmer & former State Rep
@olenate2020
#Congress2020
THREAD
Record number of GOPs leaving Congress!
(25 & counting...)
Incumbents win 90% of the time.
With these gone, #NoSafeSeats
Below is a THREAD of all the Democratic Candidates for those seats!
Support them!
#Congress2020
#VoteBlueToSaveAmerica #VoteBlueToEndThisNightmare
(25 & counting...)
Incumbents win 90% of the time.
With these gone, #NoSafeSeats
Below is a THREAD of all the Democratic Candidates for those seats!
Support them!
#Congress2020
#VoteBlueToSaveAmerica #VoteBlueToEndThisNightmare
Re-election rate among House incumbents has been up to 98% in modern history & it's rarely dipped below 90%.
#NoSafeSeats #Congress2020
#AL1 #AL2 #CA8 #CA50 #FL3 #FL19 #GA2 #GA7 #GA14 #IL15 #IN5 #KS1 #MI10 #MT #NC2 #NY2 #NY27 #OR2 #TX11 #TX13 #TX17 #TX17 #TX22 #TX23 #TX24 #UT1
#NoSafeSeats #Congress2020
#AL1 #AL2 #CA8 #CA50 #FL3 #FL19 #GA2 #GA7 #GA14 #IL15 #IN5 #KS1 #MI10 #MT #NC2 #NY2 #NY27 #OR2 #TX11 #TX13 #TX17 #TX17 #TX22 #TX23 #TX24 #UT1
GOP @BradleyByrne is leaving Alabama District 1
Democratic Candidates for #AL1 are:
James Averhart
jamesaverhart.com
@James4congress1
and
Kiani Arkus Gardner
College Instructor & Biologist
kianigardner.com
@KianiGardner
#Congress2020 #VoteBlueToSaveAmerica
THREAD
Democratic Candidates for #AL1 are:
James Averhart
jamesaverhart.com
@James4congress1
and
Kiani Arkus Gardner
College Instructor & Biologist
kianigardner.com
@KianiGardner
#Congress2020 #VoteBlueToSaveAmerica
THREAD
