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2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander

A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)

To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter ImageImageImageImage
Methodology:

I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf

Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-… ImageImageImage
Read 111 tweets
Today, the Texas Senate is expected to consider the committee substitute for #SB6, the proposed map for Texas' 38 congressional districts, and several floor amendments.

We'll be live-tweeting on this 🧵 once it begins. Follow along: tlcsenate.granicus.com/MediaPlayer.ph…
#txlege #redistricting
Here's what #SB6, the proposed Congressional map (PLANC2116), currently looks like as voted out by the Senate #Redistricting Committee.

Viewer: dvr.capitol.texas.gov/Congress/0/PLA… #txlege Image
There were 12 pre-filed amendments for #SB6, the proposed TX Congressional map: dvr.capitol.texas.gov/Congress/44 #txlege #redistricting
Read 53 tweets
Wow. This isn't even as aggressive a map as I expected from Texas Rs. It could plausibly be 24R-14D, w/ the chance Rs add seats in the Rio Grande Valley & Dems gain in DFW burbs over the course of the 2020s.
A few early highlights/impressions:
- a new Dem #TX37 in Austin
- a new GOP #TX38 in Houston (for Wesley Hunt?)
- no new Hispanic majority seat (lawsuit?)
- #TX15 Gonzalez (D) made redder
- #TX03 Taylor (R) & #TX24 Van Duyne (R) not shored up quite as much as I'd have expected
Another surprise: this GOP proposal doesn't shore up #TX21 Rep. Chip Roy (R) by nearly as much as it could have. He's still got a chunk of Travis Co.

The much bigger winners: #TX02 Crenshaw, #TX10 McCaul, #TX22 Nehls, #TX25 Williams, #TX31 Carter.
Read 6 tweets
Proposed Texas congressional map is out: data.capitol.texas.gov/dataset/cf8703… #txlege
The two new seats go to the Austin and Houston areas
.@RepMcCaul loses Harris County in #TX10
Read 16 tweets
Texas is set to gain three seats, and Republicans will likely try to expand their current 23R-13D edge to a 26R-13D edge - all while adding at least one new Hispanic majority seat and a new Dem seat in Austin. Here's how...
First, Rs would "pack" the districts held by Houston Rep. Lizzie Fletcher (D) #TX07 and Dallas Rep. Collin Allred (D) #TX32 w/ Dems, converting Fletcher's seat into a Hispanic majority seat. That would ease the creation of two new safe suburban R seats, #TX38 and #TX39.
Next, instead of dividing Austin six ways, Rs would create a new overwhelmingly blue Travis Co. seat (#TX37 here). The tradeoff? It would protect surrounding R districts against heavy D vote growth along the I-35 corridor for the next decade.
Read 5 tweets

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