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True Color RGB images from @NOAASatellites #GOES16/#GOESeast showed large plumes of blowing #dust across parts of New Mexico, Texas ad Oklahoma on 22 Feb: geosphere.ssec.wisc.edu/#playing:true;…; Note the brighter white plume originating from White Sands NM. #NMwx #TXwx #OKwx
...and here's a comparison of the blowing dust plumes as viewed using True Color RGB images from 3 satellites - @NOAASatellites #GOES18/#GOESwest, #GOES17 and #GOES16/#GOESeast: cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/satellite-blog… #NMwx #TXwx #OKwx 
This morning, evidence of the airborne dust (shades of tan) from NM/TX/OK could be seen in @NOAASatellites #GOES16/#GOESeast True Color RGB images over parts of #ILwx/#INwx/#OHwx/#MIwx/#KYwx: geosphere.ssec.wisc.edu/#playing:true;…;
Many Texans have the right to choose energy providers. Not those on #AustinEnergy! They are captive to the monopoly bc of the Austin City Council, which manages AE but doesn’t have the knowledge or experience to do so -causing high rates, poor service, & frequent outages. #txlege
Over 50% of the outages across the state were #AustinEnergy customers, even though other cities had more icing, more large trees, and providers who serve more customers. Why? Because…
#AustinEnergy’s Board of Directors is the Austin City Council, without oversight from any independent entity. They are the largest utility that owns generation that does not have an independent board.
This means 4 things that are bad for customers:
#txlege #txwx
This means 4 things that are bad for customers:
#txlege #txwx
Grid update: Demand forecast is much lower than last night but ERCOT missed its forecast by 23% last night so that's cold comfort. A miss that bad tonight & conditions would be tight. Reports of gas supply ⬇️ 8bcf overall, ~3bcf in the Permian. Gas/coal outages ~9.5GW. #txlege 1/
Add it all up & still low chance of outages tonight, though higher than last night, esp. given the massive demand miss. #ERCOT and @PUCTX simply have to get better at forecasting demand and improving #energyefficiency. More on that here: 2/
douglewin.substack.com/p/2022-cold-sn…
douglewin.substack.com/p/2022-cold-sn…
I said coming into this the two biggest wild card were power demand & gas supply. The drops in gas output weren't enough to cause problems yet. I don't think this level of reduction would cause outages. Keepin an eye on it though. #energytwitter #natgas 3/
Why I don't think there will be power outages this week, a thread:
1) It'll be ~10° warmer than Uri w/no snow/ice so:
- peak demand will be lower
- shouldn’t be nearly as many issues for gas supply & power plants
2) Peak demand @ 10am instead of overnight
#txlege #txwx 1/
1) It'll be ~10° warmer than Uri w/no snow/ice so:
- peak demand will be lower
- shouldn’t be nearly as many issues for gas supply & power plants
2) Peak demand @ 10am instead of overnight
#txlege #txwx 1/
Peak demand forecast is 69.5GW. Peak during Uri was between 76-82GW. However, the power went out in the early morning hours of Feb 15 at ~69.5GW, so that is very high demand. *But* the peak hitting at 10am instead of 1am is a massive difference. #txenergy 2/
There is little to no expected snow or ice so at 10am:
1) we'll have lots of solar production (more on that below) and
2) workers can get to sites where there are freezing issues. In many cases, they couldn't during the Uri #texasblackouts 3/
1) we'll have lots of solar production (more on that below) and
2) workers can get to sites where there are freezing issues. In many cases, they couldn't during the Uri #texasblackouts 3/
Sunset tonight, probably
Sneaky lil' BB-8 in there too
This Saturday, ERCOT expects 69.3GW of demand, an insane amount for a weekend in early May.
Temps likely to be ~92-93 in DFW and Houston, 95 in Austin, 100 in Midland & 104 (!) in Laredo. These would likely be records (or near records) for May 7.
#txlege #txenergy #txwx 1/5
Temps likely to be ~92-93 in DFW and Houston, 95 in Austin, 100 in Midland & 104 (!) in Laredo. These would likely be records (or near records) for May 7.
#txlege #txenergy #txwx 1/5
I believe the previous record demand in May is ~67GW & all time summer peak is 74.8GW. That we would reach that much demand on a Saturday in May is extraordinary. Usually demand is much lower on the weekends. Extreme weather from #climatechange is already happening.
#txlege 2/5
#txlege 2/5
#ERCOT expects 20GW of thermal plants to be offline. Wind expected to be @ 12GW & solar's likely to break a record ~9GW. I expect every battery on the grid will be ready for peak @ 5pm. Still, there will likely be tight conditions. Buckle up.
#txlege #energytwitter 3/5
#txlege #energytwitter 3/5
Galveston: In 1900, Galveston, population 36,000, was obliterated, making it the site of the worst natural disaster in US history, a sad record it retains to this day. 6,000 to 12,000 were killed, thousands of buildings wiped out, etc. 1/
2/ Galveston was rebuilt with a massive seawall and the land was raised as much as 17 feet. 15 years later, another similar hurricane and storm surge hit. The wall worked. Only 53 were killed. #Galveston #Texas #hurricane #UShistory
3/ 1900 #Galveston hurricane: Galveston was one of Texas' largest cities and was very, very wealthy. Disregarding #statistics #probabilities #science #data, plans for a seawall to protect the sandbar city were dismissed as ridiculous. #nature
Grid update: Still extremely low chance of outages. This front is not extreme & won't bring us anywhere close to the 77GW of demand in Feb.
BUT there is a warning sign for future extreme cold: there are 10+GW of thermal plants offline right now.
1/🧵 #txlege #energytwitter
BUT there is a warning sign for future extreme cold: there are 10+GW of thermal plants offline right now.
1/🧵 #txlege #energytwitter
A little more info on that. You can see the amount of outages at the link below. It's updated every hour. (You have to add columns C-F to get total thermal outages).
It adds up to 10,114MW (or 10.1GW) of nuke/gas/coal plants offline right now. 2/
ercot.com/mp/data-produc…
It adds up to 10,114MW (or 10.1GW) of nuke/gas/coal plants offline right now. 2/
ercot.com/mp/data-produc…
ERCOT forecasters continue to struggle w/ demand on winter mornings. Idk why they continue to miss but ERCOT needs to address this. My guess is that they're undercounting electric heat. Note: FERC & NERC specifically said ERCOT needs to improve this. 3/
In the Gulf of Mexico, #99L's track will be set in part by its intensity.
An area-averaged sounding around the storm reveals subtle differences in low vs mid/upper-level steering.
A stronger storm wld feel SSE winds ~300mb and move more to the N resulting in landfall farther E.
An area-averaged sounding around the storm reveals subtle differences in low vs mid/upper-level steering.
A stronger storm wld feel SSE winds ~300mb and move more to the N resulting in landfall farther E.
With ocean temperatures approaching 30C, no dry air in sight and near total command of the upper-level wind field, it's honestly hard to see a scenario where #99L doesn't rapidly intensify in the Gulf.
So watch out for potential further shifts east in the forecast track.
So watch out for potential further shifts east in the forecast track.
ERCOT board chair Sally Talberg: "Please be aware that there's a tremendous interest in getting answers to what happened..." regarding last week's outages during winter weather. #txlege #txwx
Happening now: DPS tells me a water leak in the Capitol caused the alarms to go off & initiating an evacuation. “The All-Clear signal has been given,” DPS tells me & all personnel are safe to return. #txlege
Just bumped into a state lawmaker trying to get back into the Capitol after the all-clear. He told me this is the last thing we needed “after the week we had...”
I let him know what tripped the alarm and he let out an “UGH”
#txlege
I let him know what tripped the alarm and he let out an “UGH”
#txlege
A rep for the Texas State Preservation Board (who manages the Capitol & grounds) tells me the board is waiting on the fire control tech to fill staff in on the cause of the leak. #txlege
About an hour away from @GovAbbott press conference updating Texas on power outages and storm response. #txlege #txwx
kxan.com/news/texas/gov…
kxan.com/news/texas/gov…
In Thursday AM briefing, ERCOT leadership says "we're not out of the woods yet but we did make a great amount of progress overnight and into the morning hours" on getting power back on for Texans. #txwx #txlege
PSA: Relatively low-latitude, even sub-tropical, locations in central & eastern portions (but less frequently western portions) of continents can occasionally experience severe winter cold spells--like Texas is currently enduring. But how, & why this longitudinal asymmetry?(1/17)
Well, water has a tremendous ability to buffer against thermal extremes. This is because H20 has high heat capacity--around 4x that of land! This means that it takes around 4 times as much energy to raise the temperature of a given mass of water the same amount as land. (2/17)
An intuitive consequence is that regions near large bodies of water are usually milder than landlocked areas at a similar latitude. This is also why dry places have much larger diurnal temperature ranges than humid places. (3/17)
In briefing, ERCOT: If power supply & demand too far out of balance it risks "cascading catastrophic blackout" not an outage that we can restore as soon as power plants work again, but blackout affecting entire ERCOT region, w/ "no kind of indeterminate end date" #txlege #txwx
Inbox: @GovAbbott will host a press conference at 3p from one of the state operations centers to provide an update on TX response to winter weather and power outages. #txlege #txwx
Press conference delayed until approx 3:30, I'm told.
Gov @GregAbbott_TX gets briefing on winter storm response and power outages. #txlege #txwx
🎥: @toddinsports
🎥: @toddinsports
Very Helpful and Possibly Life -SavingTips From Northerners for Us Southerners To Help Us Get Through This Winter Storm
(a thread) #txwx #dfwwx
(a thread) #txwx #dfwwx
BREAKING: SPP back to Level 3.
This means we can expect rolling blackouts at any time.
Oklahoma leaders and @OGandE @OklahomaNatural said this change back to LEVEL 3 would force rolling blackouts.
Prepare now & let me know if your power goes out/location
#okwx #poweroutages
This means we can expect rolling blackouts at any time.
Oklahoma leaders and @OGandE @OklahomaNatural said this change back to LEVEL 3 would force rolling blackouts.
Prepare now & let me know if your power goes out/location
#okwx #poweroutages
Already hearing from some who have lost power in OKC.
@SPPorg just issued LEVEL 3 emergency meaning any of us could lose power now for rolling blackouts. Don’t wait to make your preparations.
#okwx #Oklahoma #WinterStorm #poweroutages
@SPPorg just issued LEVEL 3 emergency meaning any of us could lose power now for rolling blackouts. Don’t wait to make your preparations.
#okwx #Oklahoma #WinterStorm #poweroutages
BREAKING: @OGandE confirms WIDESPREAD controlled power outages for portions of the state. OG&E says the outages will last “approximately 2 hours.”
Again, prepare now if you still have power.
#okwx #Oklahoma #WinterStorm #poweroutage
Again, prepare now if you still have power.
#okwx #Oklahoma #WinterStorm #poweroutage
I’m listening to emergency Oklahoma Corporation Commission mtg and they’re saying SPP has given an “all clear.”
I went to see if I could find confirmation on @SPPorg website but it’s down. 😬
IMPORTANT-@OGandE has told customers to be prepared for outages.
#okwx #poweroutages
I went to see if I could find confirmation on @SPPorg website but it’s down. 😬
IMPORTANT-@OGandE has told customers to be prepared for outages.
#okwx #poweroutages
Here’s the tweet from @OGandE that came out while the meeting was happening. Emergency Oklahoma Corporation Commission meeting is now over.
Regarding reports of Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt on a ski trip with his family....👇🏼
#okwx #WinterStorm #Oklahoma
#okwx #WinterStorm #Oklahoma
Texas' electric system is facing an "unprecedented power shortage" during the winter storm and there's no telling when thousands of customers will get power restored.
Check here for the latest weather updates throughout the day: houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-w… #hounews #txwx
Check here for the latest weather updates throughout the day: houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-w… #hounews #txwx
Out of 2.6 million homes and businesses served by @CNPalerts in the Houston area, 1 million are without power.
"The bottom line is that neither CenterPoint, nor I, can give you an estimate of when the power will come back on," says @LinaHidalgoTX:
houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-w… #txwx
"The bottom line is that neither CenterPoint, nor I, can give you an estimate of when the power will come back on," says @LinaHidalgoTX:
houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-w… #txwx
.@CNPalerts' power outage map is finally working. According to the latest update, only 39 percent of homes, apartments and businesses in the Houston region have power: gis.centerpointenergy.com/outagetracker/… #hounews #txwx
Latest from the Hurricane Center
Summary of all watches & warnings for #HurricaneLaura
[covers both #Texas & #Louisiana]
#HurricaneWarning #StormSurge #Laura #TX #txwx
Summary of all watches & warnings for #HurricaneLaura
[covers both #Texas & #Louisiana]
#HurricaneWarning #StormSurge #Laura #TX #txwx
Last week, I pulled every Feb 29 daily climate record (temp/precip/snow/snow depth) for every station in the U.S. and Canada. Expect to hear more about this in the coming week. 😀 @Junah_B
