Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #TheAgeOfPandemics
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My article in the Indian Express today.
Places the potential Covid death under-reporting factor in Gujarat for April 1-May 10, 2021, at 11.
Unfortunately, high chance of 1 Million+ Deaths in India in second wave.
Twitter thread on method (1/n).
indianexpress.com/article/opinio…
Places the potential Covid death under-reporting factor in Gujarat for April 1-May 10, 2021, at 11.
Unfortunately, high chance of 1 Million+ Deaths in India in second wave.
Twitter thread on method (1/n).
indianexpress.com/article/opinio…
@Divya_Bhaskar @DevendraBhatn10 broke story on May 14, showing a death under-reporting factor of 16 for March1-May10, using 2020 as the reference.
I use April1-May10, 2019 as the reference and project for 2021 using 2017-19 growth rates and get under-reporting factor of 11.
I use April1-May10, 2019 as the reference and project for 2021 using 2017-19 growth rates and get under-reporting factor of 11.
To see this, let's start with Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation. Excess mortality of 3K+ over 748 reported Covid deaths for Apr1-May10 (40 days) gets you an under-reporting factor of over 4. That's bad but wait till you see Rajkot. 
