Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #TheBlackSwan
Most recents (4)
Assuming it is true (it's not), this idiot is committing the standard retrospective distortion (intro of #TheBlackSwan):
+ Airlines spend $$$ on copilots, w/benefits that are "practically non-existent".
+ I spent $$$ on fire insurance, "there is no evidence" it was useful.
+ Airlines spend $$$ on copilots, w/benefits that are "practically non-existent".
+ I spent $$$ on fire insurance, "there is no evidence" it was useful.
2) A better analogy: "we should eliminate airport checks SINCE there have been no terrorist incidents", which was actually uttered by a politician.
Technically speaking, CONSPIRACY THEORISTS have their posterior beliefs invariant to their *prior*, regardless of the information provided. They lack a mechanism for updating their knowledge.
In #TheBlackSwan, showed how 2 persons shown exact same information fail to converge.
In #TheBlackSwan, showed how 2 persons shown exact same information fail to converge.
2) Voila
3) And, when in a group, you will lose more friends by changing your mind (regardless of the strength of evidence) than if you had different opinions to start with. Apostasy is vastly worse than unbelief. Life is path dependent.
SALIENCE (discussion from #TheBlackSwan)
The more transparent & free a society, the more imperfect it will appear. Corruption, social media censorship, police violence, government surveillance will be magnified.
Opaque societies w/o governance "feel" more just & orderly.
The more transparent & free a society, the more imperfect it will appear. Corruption, social media censorship, police violence, government surveillance will be magnified.
Opaque societies w/o governance "feel" more just & orderly.
2) SALIENCE (cont)
As you can see with the @Snowden affair, Russia exploits the fact by magnifying imperfections in this country so people think it's a dystopian jungle. Same w/#BTC maximalists obsessing over "state control".
Example: this morning's headline in "Russia Today".
As you can see with the @Snowden affair, Russia exploits the fact by magnifying imperfections in this country so people think it's a dystopian jungle. Same w/#BTC maximalists obsessing over "state control".
Example: this morning's headline in "Russia Today".
3) SALIENCE (cont)
The same point holds across time. There is an increase in the perception of injustice, coercion (state or otherwise) over time as societies improve and become more democratic.
Tocqueville: how reforms make societies more prone to revolts.
The same point holds across time. There is an increase in the perception of injustice, coercion (state or otherwise) over time as societies improve and become more democratic.
Tocqueville: how reforms make societies more prone to revolts.
notes the black swan thread
1 When Taleb was student he was advised to choose a scalable career path. If you’re a doctor, dentist, consultant or message proffessional, there is a limit to the amount of clients you can see in a day AND the amount of money you can make in one day
1 When Taleb was student he was advised to choose a scalable career path. If you’re a doctor, dentist, consultant or message proffessional, there is a limit to the amount of clients you can see in a day AND the amount of money you can make in one day
2 t isn’t scalable.The pay is more or less predictable and depends on your continuous effort. There will be differences in your income over time, but no single day of work will have a huge impact on your lifetime earnings.
3) The d/f between the successful and less successful isn’t to big, and at least somewhat predictable. These professions isn’t black swan driven and is performed in Mediocristan.
