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Purely coincidental that last week I wrote about thawing UK-EU relations and what might come next, given the Conservative Party is now seemingly rerunning their Brexit wars, but immodestly I do think this worth a look to those reporting developments. encompass-europe.com/comment/a-new-ā¦
No surprise that the CBI would point out business wants / needs strong EU ties, and the usually impressive DG Tony Danker is right that āthe best guarantor of Brexit is an economy that growsā as well as the need to end the NI Protocol stand-off ft.com/content/ab2281ā¦
There was a brief note in yesterday's Sunday Times report on UK-EU relations that Number 10 officials thought a Northern Ireland Protocol solution satisfying ERG and Commission was possible. Good luck, as they say, with that.
It's a bird..
It's a plane..
No - It's a DLT research care package containing a map of connections within the traditional finance system
Every partnership you can research using google. #connectthedots
#DLT #TradeFinance #Reseaerch #topics #digdeep #Regtech #IoV #ResearchTopics
It's a plane..
No - It's a DLT research care package containing a map of connections within the traditional finance system
Every partnership you can research using google. #connectthedots
#DLT #TradeFinance #Reseaerch #topics #digdeep #Regtech #IoV #ResearchTopics
"Where do I Start" š§µ
1. I started with the @ITFAworldwide. Who they are and what they do within the traditional finance market
2. What is their part and partners in the global system of trade finance/legacy banking?
3. Why theyš¤ @XinFin_Official #XDCā¬
1. I started with the @ITFAworldwide. Who they are and what they do within the traditional finance market
2. What is their part and partners in the global system of trade finance/legacy banking?
3. Why theyš¤ @XinFin_Official #XDCā¬
4. You start to learn about an ecosystem of traditional finance players partnering to help utilize digital documents/trade instruments between SMEs, corps & banks.
They are helping innovate the expensive, antiquated and silo'd trade finance industry
#XDC
They are helping innovate the expensive, antiquated and silo'd trade finance industry
#XDC
1/ š§µ
On Mon. October 4, USTR Katherine Tai will give a speech to "lay out initial steps of the Biden Administrationās approach to realign the bilateral trade relationship with China."
Here are DATA summarizing the current US-China trade relationship...
On Mon. October 4, USTR Katherine Tai will give a speech to "lay out initial steps of the Biden Administrationās approach to realign the bilateral trade relationship with China."
Here are DATA summarizing the current US-China trade relationship...
2/
Average US tariffs on imports from China remain elevated at 19.3%, more than six times higher than before the trade war began in 2018.
Average Chinese tariffs on imports from the United States also remain elevated at an average of 20.7%, up from 8%.
Average US tariffs on imports from China remain elevated at 19.3%, more than six times higher than before the trade war began in 2018.
Average Chinese tariffs on imports from the United States also remain elevated at an average of 20.7%, up from 8%.
3/
Due to the trade war, US tariffs now cover around $335 billion, or 66.4%, of Chinese exports to the United States (when matched to 2017 data).
Chinaās retaliatory tariffs continue to cover $90 billion, or 58.3%, of US exports to China.
Due to the trade war, US tariffs now cover around $335 billion, or 66.4%, of Chinese exports to the United States (when matched to 2017 data).
Chinaās retaliatory tariffs continue to cover $90 billion, or 58.3%, of US exports to China.
š¢ Iād like to share with #TradeTwitter a š§µ on what @XJaravel and I have learned about the unequal effects of international trade through both cost-of-living and wages in the U.S.
For those of you who have seen my JMP, this is a much-revised draft
dropbox.com/s/eiygfth61vp4ā¦
For those of you who have seen my JMP, this is a much-revised draft
dropbox.com/s/eiygfth61vp4ā¦
@XJaravel Letās start with the effects on costs-of-living, which are understood less well
Who benefits more from lower prices of imports in the US?
A typical guess & prior estimates: poor consumers who buy more tradable goods, esp. from China
So trade could REDUCE (real) inequality
Who benefits more from lower prices of imports in the US?
A typical guess & prior estimates: poor consumers who buy more tradable goods, esp. from China
So trade could REDUCE (real) inequality
@XJaravel But has it actually been documented who buys imported products and benefit when they become cheaper?
Not much, and thatās what we do as accurately as we can!
We measure import shares of spending across income and education groups using several newly linked datasets
Not much, and thatās what we do as accurately as we can!
We measure import shares of spending across income and education groups using several newly linked datasets
Ok #tradetwitter can we all agree that we're not all going to roll out our pieces from 3 or 5 years ago suggesting that agriculture in trade deals might be a problem, as obviously that was just silly project fear and not at all completely inevitable if government didn't listen
Anyway, with respect to a UK-Australia deal it is not whether their agricultural produce will be allowed into the country tariff free (yes), but:
- unlimited or with quotas
- whether some sensitive products are excluded
- under what conditions e.g. animal welfare
- what we get
- unlimited or with quotas
- whether some sensitive products are excluded
- under what conditions e.g. animal welfare
- what we get
Contrary to what the 19th century wing of #tradetwitter believes, the debate on agriculture in an Australia trade deal is what every country should go through in advance of a deal. Indeed, if there is no similar argument in Australia why not? Are we not asking enough?
NEW: Chinaās purchases of US goods were over 40 percent short of its total commitment for 2020 found in the Phase One trade agreement.
Official December US export statistics released today, closing the book on US-China goods trade for 2020... 1/
piie.com/research/piie-ā¦
Official December US export statistics released today, closing the book on US-China goods trade for 2020... 1/
piie.com/research/piie-ā¦
The Phase One deal has 3 sectoral targets. Of those, China's purchases of US farm products were least bad. (Makes political sense)
According to US export statistics, China's purchases came up short in 2020 by
ā¢ 18% for agriculture
ā¢ 43% for manufacturing
ā¢ 63% for energy
2/
According to US export statistics, China's purchases came up short in 2020 by
ā¢ 18% for agriculture
ā¢ 43% for manufacturing
ā¢ 63% for energy
2/
For #TradeTwitter, of interest is the sizeable GAP in farm purchases between Chinese import and US export statistics.
Ie, China's purchases of covered agricultural products reached 82% of target based on US export data BUT ONLY 64% based on Chinese import data. š¤š¤š¤
3/
Ie, China's purchases of covered agricultural products reached 82% of target based on US export data BUT ONLY 64% based on Chinese import data. š¤š¤š¤
3/
*That* Gove article shows exactly what has been wrong with the Brexit project since 2016.
It doesnāt offer truths or even perspective. It only offers dishonesty or misrepresentation. Coming as it does from the heart of this govt, the damage is more fatal than āugly politicsā.
It doesnāt offer truths or even perspective. It only offers dishonesty or misrepresentation. Coming as it does from the heart of this govt, the damage is more fatal than āugly politicsā.
For all the breathless reporting of the #BrexitDeal in Britain, as ever with this sorry saga, outside eyes are often the clearest.
This analysis in the @nytimes is a better starting point than so much of what passes for reporting here.
nytimes.com/2020/12/25/worā¦
This analysis in the @nytimes is a better starting point than so much of what passes for reporting here.
nytimes.com/2020/12/25/worā¦
For example:
āBritainās services sector ā encompassing not only Londonās powerful financial industry, but also lawyers, architects, consultants and others ā was largely left out of the 1,246-page deal, despite the sector accounting for 80 percent of British economic activity.ā
āBritainās services sector ā encompassing not only Londonās powerful financial industry, but also lawyers, architects, consultants and others ā was largely left out of the 1,246-page deal, despite the sector accounting for 80 percent of British economic activity.ā
Right, I promised what is a 'thin' FTA and why is the UK-EU not 'thin'. Here it is, not exactly @Usherwood class of picture, but will have to do for now. First, a very rough classification of Free Trade Agreements. Reduce tariffs, go a bit further than WTO is the summary.
Thus for example a UK-US FTA is likely to be mostly in the middle box. Not much extra market access from the US. Then we call it ambitious.
But with the EU? Most likely, from what we know, across the standard and enhanced boxes.
But with the EU? Most likely, from what we know, across the standard and enhanced boxes.
Final, most important point. Free Trade Agreements are nothing like a Customs Union or Single Market in terms of eliminating barriers to trade, however ambitious. That's why so many countries have chosen to go further. The UK is unusual in choosing to increase trade barriers.
So, lots of new Brexit texts flying around this week.
What to make it all?
1/
What to make it all?
1/
Today we had the UK's 'approach' on implementing the Northern Irish Protocol: gov.uk/government/newā¦
Yesterday came the drafts for EU-UK agreements under the Future Relationship: gov.uk/government/pubā¦
Also, the new tariff regime: gov.uk/government/newā¦
2/
Yesterday came the drafts for EU-UK agreements under the Future Relationship: gov.uk/government/pubā¦
Also, the new tariff regime: gov.uk/government/newā¦
2/
(note the draft texts didn't get a press release, so HMG not going out of their way to get people to notice them, or even find them)
3/
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BREAKING
__
PROGRESS IN THE US-JAPAN-EU TRILATERAL! š
aka, the rules-based way to fix trade problems with China over the LONG-TERM
This is unlikely to make many headlines this week. ā¹ļø
Too bad. Is some of THE MOST IMPORTANT trade news in a while.
trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/press/iā¦
BREAKING
__
PROGRESS IN THE US-JAPAN-EU TRILATERAL! š
aka, the rules-based way to fix trade problems with China over the LONG-TERM
This is unlikely to make many headlines this week. ā¹ļø
Too bad. Is some of THE MOST IMPORTANT trade news in a while.
trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/press/iā¦
2/
BACKSTORY: One big concern is over Chinese subsidies.
Chinese subsidies are the source of Trump's tariffs on steel, aluminum and solar panels. Not the legal reason, but the underlying problem.
It also relates to Trump's Section 301 tariffs on $360 billion of Chinese goods.
BACKSTORY: One big concern is over Chinese subsidies.
Chinese subsidies are the source of Trump's tariffs on steel, aluminum and solar panels. Not the legal reason, but the underlying problem.
It also relates to Trump's Section 301 tariffs on $360 billion of Chinese goods.
3/
Coming to agreement on how to deal with China's subsidies are a BIG problem.
The "trilateral" (US, EU, Japan) had been meeting quarterly beginning in December 2017.
They have been trying to agree to new rules the THREE OF THEM could live with, before bringing that to China.
Coming to agreement on how to deal with China's subsidies are a BIG problem.
The "trilateral" (US, EU, Japan) had been meeting quarterly beginning in December 2017.
They have been trying to agree to new rules the THREE OF THEM could live with, before bringing that to China.
This is how the UK proposes a customs border between NI and Ireland could be managed:
Or in picture form. (Yes, I am pleased with myself for getting this pretty much spot on just from guessing.)
So this is interesting. Will put my thoughts on GIs below
This is from the SNPās 2017 manifesto, so Iām setting out right at the start that my position is we should protect these and Iāll explain why...
Scotch Whisky is a hugely lucrative export for Scotland.
Iāve been learning a little about cumulation in the past wee while. A thread.
The EU has trade deals (FTAs) with countries. (Usually called āThirdā countries in this context).
These trade deals have rules. So, for example, South Korea recognises something as originating in the EU if it has a certain % EU content.
