Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #TradeWar

Most recents (24)

The #CoronaVirus or #Covid19 is a classic #BlackSwan event.

No one could see it coming. (Ok @BillGates did highlight risk of a pandemic - but realistically not many planned for this)

...
Such a chaotic event is catastrophic for those who are #Fragile,
A downturn for #Robust
Good for #Antifragile

(Channelling my inner NNT)
What is fragility?

As per @nntaleb checklist

- too much concentration of power (can’t talk back to authority with honest feedback)
- one trick pony (export one commodity)
- too much leverage (financial or over optimised supply chain)
- experience of previous crisis
Read 24 tweets
Mr. Hogan is the new @Trade_EU Commissioner and is making his first trip outside the EU as part of the @vonderleyen Commission. He is speaking with @CSISEurope's Heather Conley and Scholl Chair Bill Reinsch.
Mr Hogan was previously Irish Minister for Environment, Community and Local Government. At The Europe Desk, we recently interview @HcMEntee, Irish Minister for European Affairs, on Ireland's role in transatlantic relations after #Brexit: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bri… @GUGlobalIrish
Read 47 tweets
Qassem Soleimani was killed in an air strike by the #US in #Baghdad. Equivalent to Jiang Zemin in #China, Soleimani was a dominant figure in the military, politics and oil industry of #Iran. Most of his family reside in #HongKong, #Shanghai and #Beijing.
#China’s Bank of Kunlun was established by Soleimani family in collaboration with the #CCP. The actual #Chinese main shareholders are Jiang Zemin, Wang Qishan, Meng Jianzhu (and Zhou Yongkang before jailed). Its asset has increased from $17 billion to $28 billion.
#Bank of Kunlun is a tool of #Iran’s Soleimani, Khamenei and the #CCP kleptocrats to launder money and evade the #US sanctions @robert_spalding @MischaEDM @WarrenPlatts @geoff_p_wade @DanRDimicco @Jkylebass @BenKTallmadge @IndoPac_Info @BoycottHegemony
klb.cn/eklbank/921141…
Read 69 tweets
China data: Inflation Rate +3.8% YoY (3% last month), a material part a DOUBLING of pork 🐽 prices in October.

Yet Chinese PPI (i.e. prices from producers, e.g. factories etc) was -1.6% (-1.2% last month).

So inflation for consumers, deflation for producers

1/N
So China really needs to get pork prices down, it's by far the most popular meat there (China eats HALF the world's pork!).

And half their pig population has been decimated by swine flu (450 million pigs when at capacity, so half of these lost).

And pigs eat SOY BEANS...

2/N
China has been sorting soy bean deals with Russia, Argentina (some folk tracking shipments from S. America which are up a lot), although the MSM just talk about the #beandeal and nothing else...

China could do with more soy beans sure, but it doesn't HAVE to buy from US

3/N
Read 13 tweets
#India has lost $7 billion #WTO case against US. Meanwhile #China has won its case with WTO allowing the Chinese to impose a $3.6 billion sanction on American goods. The verdict comes days after India US officially suspended defense cooperation. #TradeWar greatgameindia.com/india-loses-7-…
The #WTO verdict against India in favor of US in a $7 billion case comes days after India and US officially suspended defense cooperation in what is now giving rise to a full-fledged India-US #TradeWar.
greatgameindia.com/india-us-offic…
The #WTO case was filed in March 2018 by the U.S., challenging what it said were illegal export subsidies provided to #Indian firms. The decision, which can be appealed, comes amid a now full-fledged  India US #TradeWar.
greatgameindia.com/india-us-trade…
Read 6 tweets
#WeekendReading Thread | @GreatGameIndia

Kartarpur Corridor - ISI's Bridge to #Khalistan

While the intention appears to be noble the larger Pakistani plot behind #KartarpurCorridor is ISI's Bridge to #Khalistan directed at the #Khalistan2020 Referendum
greatgameindia.com/kartarpur-corr…
According to leaked information of a high-level meeting, the United States and India’s failure to reach a long-expected trade deal on Sept. 24 has sparked fears of a full-fledged India US #TradeWar.
greatgameindia.com/india-us-trade…
A scientist with the National Remote Sensing Centre #NRSC of the Indian Space Research Organisation #ISRO was found murdered in his apartment in #Hyderabad.
greatgameindia.com/isro-scientist…
Read 7 tweets
回顧這一年多來的關稅大戰,有一點可以清晰可見,那就是,走國真的沒有杠精粉紅們想象中的那麽强大,一年下來各種被制裁且無還手之力。并且目前各種跡象表明,US正在誘使走黨走向另一個“廣場協議”。
回到這個問題的本源,爲什麽會爆發 #TradeWar?最核心的問題在於兩方面:1.百餘年前天朝就流傳著“師夷長技以制夷”的説法,於是走黨把從美國學來的高科技用來對付美國,然而被川普看懂了,並竭力制止...
... 2.走黨用高科技對付自己的人民,這個問題更嚴重,這是反人類的行爲,必須被制止,否則人類文明大倒退。於是,川普有了兩個“無比正義”的旗號:保護美國利益+保護人權——“名正則言順”,美兩黨在中國問題上的態度空前一致,即使川不能連任,其繼任者也很難扭轉這個新的政治正確。
Read 4 tweets
After raising protest in a letter to President Trump, now American lawmakers have acted legally against India over the #Kashmir issue urging for US intervention. What makes the report more startling is that the doc was submitted just days after #HowdyModi
greatgameindia.com/american-lawma…
On 12 Sept 2019 Senators Chris Van Hollen, Todd Young, Ben Cardin and Lindsay Graham wrote a letter to President Trump raising concerns over #Kashmir issue. Congressman Eric Swalwell said Kashmir is not just about India but has worldwide military, economic and moral consequences.
In a first step towards legislative action by American lawmakers against India over #Kashmir US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations has added an appeal to end what it calls a “humanitarian crisis” in Kashmir in its report ahead of the annual Foreign Appropriations Act for 2020.
Read 15 tweets
“The Chinese miracle is over.”

In a wide-ranging conversation, top radio talk show hosts and senior @EpochTimes staff provided context to an audience of media professionals about some of the most important headlines regarding #China. theepochtimes.com/the-chinese-mi…
John @batchelorshow, a talk show host on WABC in New York, said the #TradeWar has highlighted how “China’s business model is broken.”

US #Tariffs have taught companies they can move their supply chains out of #China, without being subject to unfair trade practices.
@batchelorshow Tom @sullivanradio of #TalkMedia Network said he’s spoken with #Farmers and residents in the heartland states most affected by #China’s retaliatory #Tariffs on US #Agricultural products; they support President Trump tackling the #Chinese regime’s trade policies.
Read 8 tweets
Standard Chartered 1/5: #USD – The peak is nearing
We remain neutral on the USD albeit with a slight negative bias as the uptrend appears to be coming to an end. However, we believe conditions for a reversal are not yet in place.
Standard Chartered 2/5: The USD has remained relatively resilient on the back of the US’s strong cyclical story relative to the rest of the world. Additionally, tight USD liquidity and capital flows have remained USD-supportive and could persist.
Standard Chartered 3/5: The higher US yield structure means that any US flows to the rest of the world will likely be hedged while flows into the US will likely be unhedged – which could prop the USD up in the near term. Further upside risks include an intensifying #tradewar,
Read 5 tweets
l'impulso dalla creazione di quasi 3Trilioni di $ di riserve non spinge in maniera coerente e costante l'elargizione di nuovo credito da parte delle banche US👉NON C'E' DOMANDA
la moneta creata non "gira" come potrebbe/dovrebbe e lo vedi su
-Linea Nera:Inflazione attesa 5y FWD
...perché accade tutto questo?
perché da oltre 10 anno l'unico intento delle CBs è quello di salvaguardare il sistema finanziario come l'abbiamo sempre "conosciuto"...ma che è morto esattamente 11 anni fa...NON SIAMO MAI USCITI DALLA GFC 2008/09 e non usciremo mai in questo modo
...ed oggi vedremo quanto @potus è ricattabile...ha in mano il jolly per affondare EZ e lo DEVE giocare adesso...👽
ansa.it/europa/notizie…
Read 210 tweets
Weekend Reading #Thread | @GreatGameIndia

Below are all the issues we covered this week.

Join us on Telegram for more intel and updates t.me/greatgameindia
How bureaucrats and politicians including a former Chief Minister and Governor of Madhya Pradesh were honeytrapped by Bollywood actresses and call-girls in a sex-blackmail racket. #Honeytrap
greatgameindia.com/madhya-pradesh…
Russians are reportedly on the ground supporting renegade General Khalifa Haftar known as ‘CIA’s Man in Libya’ against the #UnitedNations backed Govt of National Accord – in what is now being called as the Russo American Alliance against the #DeepState.
greatgameindia.com/russo-american…
Read 5 tweets
US has put sanctions on several Chinese companies for shipping Iranian oil, putting dozens of Supertankers off limits to energy traders. As a direct impact of blacklisting of Chinese shipping company Cosco 145,000 tonnes of Indian Oil is at risk. #TradeWar
greatgameindia.com/145000-tonnes-…
US Treasury dept on Wednesday blacklisted two oil tanker subsidiaries of Cosco, a leading Chinese shipping and logistics company. Indian Oil Corp is examining the impact of this sanctions on its chartering of a crude carrier owned by a subsidiary of Cosco greatgameindia.com/145000-tonnes-…
Indian Oil Corp has chartered Da Yuan Hu, owned by Chinese Cosco Shipping Tanker Dalian blacklisted by US for the lifting of 145,000 tonnes of Mexican Isthumus oil. The vessel is expected to start its voyage to Paradip port in eastern India on Oct. 10, Refinitiv Eikon data shows.
Read 8 tweets
In the late 90s secret meetings took place in London where the blueprint for the return of East India Company was drafted. Called #Vision2020 the scheme was a brainchild of an American consultancy firm born out of US military #McKinsey & #BigFour. #Kashmir
greatgameindia.com/return-of-east…
#Vision2020 was supposed to be a role model & exported all over India & later to entire developing world. Although amidst widespread opposition people of Andhra Pradesh destroyed this ‘world’s most dangerous economic experiment’ dubbed at the time as return of East India Company.
The partition of Andhra Pradesh provided another opportunity to revive the masterplan. The same project was now rebranded as #Vision2029 under the flagship of one of the #BigFour consultancy firm Ernst & Young - who is also a partner in #Kashmir Plan.
Read 21 tweets
When Obama first took office, the economy was in the gutter.

The $DOW hit a low of 6500.

Within 4 years, Obama doubled that value to roughly 13500.

Now we’re on the brink of a #TrumpRecession, with the $DOW only 5K above its mark when he took office.

#TrumpSlump #IdiotInChief
Obama handed Trump an economy with 94 months of straight growth and a $DOW hovering around 19000.

The $DOW jumped to 27000 on the promise of stock buybacks through a massive corporate tax break.

But those were hollow gains, backed by nothing more than a quick buck.
#TrumpSlump
Once that feeding frenzy died off, the markets swung back and forth—rocked by juvenile tweets and #TradeWar threats.

With no real economic plan, the market hasn’t added any true value since late 2017.

His “strongest economy” tweets mean nothing.

The #TrumpRecession is coming.
Read 3 tweets
1. My prediction: As Chinese goods are dumped to get ahead of Trump's #tradewar #tariffs, prices remain low but as inventories drop and demand remains, prices will begin to spike. IMO @POTUS Trump will create high inflation with a business slowdown by first quarter 2020.
2. The key is to keep talking about the Trump GOP being in bed with Putin (eg #MoscowMitch #LeninGradLindsey) and Putin's goal is destruction of US economy. Say it over and over again. So when this predictable result occurs the remaining non-#MAGA GOP will be predisposed to
3. wipe the GOP out in nearly every Senate race. The goal of Democrats holding the @WhiteHouse and ending GOP majorities not only in the House but in the Senate is clearly attainable but @TheDemocrats must remain focused on message. The goal is to not only defeat the @GOP but
Read 6 tweets
[THREAD]🌏Find out our global outlook & central scenario for H2-19-2020: uncertainties surrounding global economic dynamics will weigh on overall growth #Outlook #tradewar #Brexit
🔎Our scenario is based on the strong assumption of a UK exit from the EU without a withdrawal agreement #Brexit #HardBrexit🇬🇧🇪🇺
Mainly, expectations are:
🔻a recession in the #UK and a slowdown of #growth in the euro zone
🔻3 #Fed rate cuts of 25 bps in July, September & December 2019
🔻a cut in the deposit rate by the #ECB by 10bps in September 2019
Read 4 tweets
Thread of 3 Articles: Does #China have enough #US dollars to survive the US #tradewar? - China’s US$3.1 trillion in foreign exchange reserves may not be sufficient to support a crisis in the economy, analysts say scmp.com/economy/china-…
This is the first article in a three-part series looking at China’s US dollar shortage risks amid the trade war with the United States as it plans to reform and internationalise its economy.
Beijing’s increasing scrutiny of US dollar usage by Chinese companies & individuals, in the absence of any signs of a financial crisis, + accelerating efforts to lure in foreign capital, have raised suspicions that the China's economy is worried about running short of US dollars.
Read 44 tweets
Thread: The Bank of #China is asking customers with #US dollars to exchange them for the local RMB currency, and giving rewards to those that do. This is an indication that the trade balance is getting tight due to the #tradewar and China needs to raise more foreign currency.
Here is further confirmation that #China is short of dollars - Why is #US dollar access so restrained in China as trade war rages on? Foreign financial institutions increasingly reluctant to lend US dollars to Chinese banks because of financial risks amp.scmp.com/economy/china-…
Foreign financial institutions increasingly reluctant to lend US dollars to Chinese banks given worries about financial risks amid the trade war - China holding onto US dollars by increasingly restricting business and individual transfers out of the country.
Read 13 tweets
#FoxBusinessNews is discussing #TradeWar with #Mexico Trump is quite wily. Some car parts travel back & forth over the border FOUR times, same parts. The assembly apparently requires the parts exchange hands several times before the final assembly.
2/ A 5% tarriff for each trip over the border will bankrupt a Mexican company. DJT probably knows the cumulative tariff for Mexico will be 25% in the end. Each piece is now increased $2.50. Which is why their representatives ended their siestas & made tracks to reach the White
3/ House. The US auto industry has been alluding to “peak car.” It seems taking Uber, Lyft, & others is less costly than owning car. More used cars are being bought & the electric car is permanent. The auto industry is headed into the graveyard. Perhaps as soon as 2030.
Read 5 tweets
1/ This isn't my usual beat on payments or fintech, but would like to talk about Skyworks Solutions $SWKS, the analog #semiconductor maker that "is empowering the wireless networking revolution." Just thinking out loud, looking for feedback. #5G #IoT #valueinvesting (cont)
2/ I'm firm believer in owning great companies w/ real, competitive advantages in growing industries. I believe Skyworks fits this bill, though it is currently facing many legitimate concerns. If problems are overcome, could be lots of upside from here. #tradewar #tariffs (cont)
3/ Bad news first: Huawei makes up about 10% of Skyworks' revenue. ZTE is a 5%+ customer. Both are affected by tense US-China relationship. Together represent combined 15% of business but, since mid-April, $SWKS stock is down more than 26%. (cont) fool.com/investing/2019…
Read 13 tweets
Some argue that the #US economy could decouple from the steepening downturn in the global #economy . This is a serious misconception.

The fact is that, for the first time since the early 1900s, the US has not been the most influential player in the global business cycle. 1/
When the global financial crash reverberated through the global economy in late 2008, the Chinese leaders enacted stimulus that would break all records.

The idea, most likely, was to carry the Chinese economy through the slump of the global economy, but the slump never ended. 2/
The bank bailouts of 2008 combined with zero-interest and quantitative easing policies by the central banks forced the business cycle into expansion mode prematurely. Unprofitable banks and firms were kept operating, and the global economy “zombified”. 3/
gnseconomics.com/en_US/2019/03/…
Read 11 tweets
美國銀行(Bank of America Corp.)、摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)和瑞銀集團(UBS Group AG)表示,在 #TradeWar 繼續深化的情況下,中國的經濟增長可能會放緩至6%以下,這是近30年來的首次。中國實際的經濟環境可能要比數據嚴重得多。
隨着政府通過增加支出來緩解衝擊,債務螺旋上升,目前已經接近GDP產出的300%。麥格理證券(Macquarie Securities Ltd.)駐港首席中國經濟學家胡舒立(Larry Hu)說:“他們必須知道,日本之所以陷入“失去的十年”,部分原因是日本央行在廣場協議之後過度刺激了日本經濟。”
Read 12 tweets
#Gold: There is an interesting story on Bloomberg suggesting that China could dump Treasuries, not as part of the #TradeWar but to defend its currency.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…?
#Gold: Certainly, the RMB has quickly fallen in value against the USD and Euro over the past month, as this chart of a 50:50 USDCNY EURCNY blend shows.
Gold: Together with the move in US dollar-denominated #gold back towards $1300/oz, this has propelled #gold in renminbi towards a recent high.
Read 10 tweets

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