Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #UsdJpy

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Altın ın karşılığı faiz demektir. Buradaki mevzu altın da tam değil faizdir. Faize girmeye çalışan bir sürü para var ve faiz aşağı gelirse borsalar negatif etkilenir sağ sol istemsiz bozulur.

FED diyor ki; faizler düşerse dünyada korku oluşur.
Faiz diyerek bunun önüne geçiyor.
Şöyle düşün faiz kendiliğinden aşağı gelirse bu korku sebebi olabilir. Ama FED yumuşak diye olursa coşku sebebi olur.

İşte tam faizler aşağı düşecek faiz diyor korkunun önüne geçiyor. Normalde nasıldır ?
Faiz korkuda düşer ALTIN çıkar.
Adamlar diyor ki; faizler düşüyor korku sebebi altın korku ile gitmesin piyasalar dünya bunu sorgular hayırdır diye..
Ben yumuşarsam giden gitsin ama buna FED müsaade etti deriz.
Read 11 tweets
Bakın arkadaşlar sizlere strateji öğretmekten perişan oldum. Bir daha anlatacağım sonra daha anlatmam.

#USDJPY diyelim ki satış oynadın ekim ayında tamam mı ? Ekim ayında #USDJPY kaçtı ? 144 civarı doğru muyum ?
Ekim ayında #EUR kaçtı ? 1.01 tamam mı ?

Hesap yapıyoruz. Ekim ayında #EURJPY kaçtı ?
Önce hesaplanışı EURJPY nin..

JPY X EUR = EURJPY 144 X 1.01 = EURJPY 145

Sen USDJPY shortladın ya ! Bunu shortlarken diyelim ki
0.10 sattın. Bu ABD faizde ısrar ediyor mu ? Etsin.
Sen USDJPY satarken EURJPY yi aynı oranda alırsan ne olur ? EUR yukarı gittikçe orada kar yaparsın.
Örnek; JPY 144 X EUR 1.01 = EURJPY 145
Şu an değerler ne ? USDJPY 135 EURJPY 148 :))
Parite etkisi ile yukarı gitti hem de senin elindeki
usdjpy kar yazdı.
Read 10 tweets
#MarketReport 2023/04

1) In this thread, I'll cover comparative performance of

📌 #Stock Indices
📌 #Exchange Rates
📌 Treasury #Bills and Government #Bonds

both for April and since pandemic. Image
2) #StockMarkets

MoM returns in April, at their own currency:

➡️ #SPX #IXIC #DJI #DAX #NI225 #XU100 Image
3) #StockMarkets

MoM returns in April, based on USD:

➡️ #SPX #IXIC #DJI #DAX #NI225 #XU100 Image
Read 10 tweets
Aslında değiller, ben sana grafiğini atayım.
Elleri çok rahat, çünkü; hacimsiz bırakıp o hacmi kriptolara kaydırıyorlar. Elleri rahat derken onlar 2000 300 puan vb nin hesabını yapmazlar.
#SP500 GÜNLÜK
Tam bir aydır kapalı gibidir. Marjlar açık problem yok adamlara, seviyeler grafikte yazıyor. Bunlar bu haftayı bir atlatabilseler kafaları rahatlar. Bunlar ALTIN da problem yaşıyorlar. Piyasayı arka planda fonluyorlar ama altını tuta tuta. Image
Bunlar EUR yukarı alıyorlar, DXY aşağı veriyorlar ama, ALTIN durgun kalsın istiyorlar. Halbuki ALTIN 2015 üstü bir kalsa ortamı da yakalasa yürür.
Read 15 tweets
#USDJPY 🎲🎲
@cream_dreamer1 for the assist LFG

*Nothing I share is financial advice*
3.4R target? LETS FIND OUT 🎲🎲

*Nothing I share is financial advice*
just came back from the gym so heres the update, we were discussing it in the discord
Read 5 tweets
#USDJPY extending TP for 6.6R on m1 entry, will add on m5 bos if we get it for another 2R

*Nothing I share is financial advice* Image
#USDJPY UPDATE
if we cut throught that m4 fvg I exit at BE Image
#USDJPY dont fuck up bro (4 min chart)

*Nothing I share is financial advice* ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
🚀Degen Strategy🚀

💰How I turned $2048 into $100,000 in 1 month, and NOT losing it all back.

👉 No bullshit, at the end of the thread, there is a link for you guys to verify trade record on @Myfxbook

🆘This is NOT AN EASY STRATEGY.🆘
#forex #crypto Image
1⃣ A High Conviction View.
$DXY (USD Index) was trading around 105, a hard support, which if it holds, I have high conviction it will bounce to 110 in a short time, aka, bullish continuation bias.

With that view, I chose to short #EURUSD and Long #USDJPY Image
2⃣ Money Management (MM) is 🔑

I deposited $2048 on 08.08.2022, with that fund, I can trade up to 100 lot #EURUSD. But my trade size is only 0.1 to 0.5 lot.

First trade was a loss, neverminded, I tried again the next day and started making some small wins. Image
Read 8 tweets
Son üç senede dünyada olay bakımından ne yaşandıysa hepsini önceden yazdım ve hepsi de dönüm noktasıydı hane halkları için.. Piyasa ? Onları da yazdım, hepsi de rakamsal geldi. Belgelerim tek tek.

Ama; neyi fark ettim ve buradan uzaklaştım.!
Birden fazla etken var aslında ama, bir kaçını yazayım.
1- Ekonomide fiyatlar bir yerden bir yere geliyor, bu konuda bilirkişi görünen insanlar, bunun üstüne yorum yapıyor, olur olmaz diyor ve herkes şak şak yapıyor.
Yani; ya eleştireceksin, ya da; savunacaksın.
Bu benim yapıma ters ben bir kitleye oynayamam.
Böyle kişiler sadece eleştiri veya savunmadan prim yapıyorlar. Ben böyle olamam, çünkü; asıl işimi ihmal etmiş olurum.
2- Bu parasal genişlemeler de kriptolar çok ön plana
çıktı ve piyasalar çok hızlandı.
Read 16 tweets
#SP500 AYLIK GRAFİK.

Bir arkadaş sormuş SP500 çıkıyor, her yükselişi satış fırsatı görmeye devam mı demiş. Arkadaşım; ben
günü birlik kararlar değiştirmem. Benim için 300 500 puanın önemi yoktur. Ben dönen filmleri takip ederim.
Bu adamlar istesin dünyayı aptala çevirirler. Image
Bu adamlar niçin enflasyon yapıyorlar sanıyorsunuz ?
Bunu Avrupa üstünden de anlattım. Borsalar üstünden de anlattım. Sen istersen düşüşleri alım fırsatı gör!
O da doğru pozisyondur. Çünkü; bu adamlar destekler borsalarını ! Ama; yükselişi satış fırsatı gören de doğru pozisyonda
#SP500 Grafiğinin içinde yazan tarihle bunu birleştir.
#ETHUSD 01 04 2021 çıkış tarihine bakın.
SP500 ün pili bitmişti 2021 de ve kriptoları devreye aldılar. Neden ? Çünkü; seviye yüksekti ve pandemi vardı
millet short pozisyona abanacaktı. Dikkatleri kriptolara
kaydırıp + Image
Read 10 tweets
Daily Currency 🧵- Nov 11th, 2022

$DXY #DXY

Huge moves happening, some that require attention. Starting with the dollar, we saw this blow through momo yesterday and continue to fall this morning. To get a solid trend shift, we're going to need to see some components shift too! Image
A trend shift in the dollar will add more confirmation to the Risk-On regime, which has been brewing under the surface for over a month now. Market Illiquidity improving is supporting the narrative of a possible shift. This really comes down to how the major components trade... Image
$EUR (largest $DXY component)

The EUR was able to blow through parity and get a good squeeze going in the last two days. We still have some distance to momo, a failure to break there will give very low confidence of a DXY trend shift sticking.

$EURUSD #EURUSD #USDEUR $USDEUR Image
Read 5 tweets
Daily Currency 🧵- Nov 10th, 2022

$DXY #DXY

The dollar is holding a bid ahead of the CPI print today. Remember, it's bullish trend until it isn't. Lower VAMP AND momo MUST hold for the trend to remain intact. Image
$EUR (largest $DXY component)

EUR is back under parity this morning ahead of US CPI. For the time, we're still holding above mid-VAMP, but parity has been the key for quite some time now. If we can't hold it post-print, watch for lower VAMP.

$EURUSD #EURUSD #USDEUR $USDEUR Image
$JPY (2nd largest $DXY component)

Despite the Yen edging off its lows, we're still under the BoJ initial intervention level. Can we get back above and squeeze some shorts or will this shit the bed post CPI? Trend remains🐻

$JPYUSD #JPYUSD $USDJPY #USDJPY Image
Read 4 tweets
Daily Currency 🧵- Nov 9th, 2022

$DXY #DXY

The dollar seems to continue to hold above momo and lower VAMP. These levels would need to break before we can talk about a confirmed dollar top / "peak dollar". Image
$EUR (largest $DXY component)

The EUR is still stuck around parity as bulls and bears fight for dominance. We are at upper VAMP so some significant momentum is going to need to appear quickly as this has almost 300bps of short-term downside risk.

$EURUSD #EURUSD #USDEUR $USDEUR Image
$JPY (2nd largest $DXY component)

Similarly to the EUR, this is still unable to get above and run from its resistance level, with this one being the BoJ wall. Lower VAMP has yet to really lift off lows...

$JPYUSD #JPYUSD $USDJPY #USDJPY Image
Read 4 tweets
DISCLAIMER : This is for educational purpose and not financial advise.

Monthly market analysis Oct 31, 2022

#StockMarket #DowJones best month since 1976

Let's look at more closely 🧵👇
1. After technical oversold and very negative sentiment in Sep month, #StockMarket was finally able to reverse direction this month. $DJIA had the best month since 1976 (+14%). $NDX was underperformed (5%) compared to $SPX (8.8%), $RUT(11%).

2. Let's look at US 10Y #Bond Yield price action. It was very volatile and tested 4.3% Jun'08 high before reversing -9.8% to the end of the month. This month it finished up 5.7%. RSI did not make new high at Oct 21 when it reached peak 4.33% (bearish reversal)
#StockMarket Image
Read 53 tweets
DISCLAIMER : This is for educational purpose and not financial advise.

Monthly market analysis Sep 30, 2022

#StockMarket Worst week, worst month, and worst quarter of the year since Financial crisis and dot-com bubble. Why it happened?

Let's look at more closely 🧵👇
1. After making reversal at H/S neckline in early Aug, US 10Y Yield #bond broke out from Feb'11 high 3.73% and have held up strongly for about a week. This month, yield has gone up +20%, bad for risk and long duration assets

#StockMarket Image
2. US 02Y Yield #bond broke out resistance 3.7% and past 4% strongly after Fed Reserve hawkish announcement and never look back. This month yield has gone up more than +22%

#StockMarket Image
Read 49 tweets
Hello everyone,

1/23 This thread is dedicated to @SantiagoAuFund - Dollar Milkshake Theory.
I thought it's a good idea to break down the "ingredients" in DXY milkshake, but from TA only perspective.
Let's dive in 🧵👇:

Start with the video below first.

2/23 Good, now that you have watched the video I want to remind everyone that "The Dollar Milkshake Theory" is a THEORY not a certainty that those events will happen and that all #USD scenarios will play out.

Same thing for my TA breakdown, so take it with a grain of salt.
3/23 So everyone has a clear understanding of the #DXY , here is a quick explanation below:

The U.S. Dollar Index consists of 6 foreign currencies.:

Euro (EUR), JapaneseYen (JPY), BritishPound (GBP), Canadiandollar (CAD), SwedishKrona (SEK), Swiss Franc (CHF).
Read 23 tweets
First up let me just say, I cannot predict the future...

I can offer 12+ years of market experience & nothing more

The $Dxy has positioned itself for a humongous Bullish move...

Major multi year & even multi decade #Dxy breakouts are happening *Right Now*

Charts Below 📈🧵👇
Lets start by looking at the $Dxy itself (Monthly Chart)

On this time frame we are close to breaking out of a 7 year consolidation (when the 2015 rally stalled out)

This failure to make a low, followed by a break higher, tends to create a large amount of short covering...
As shorts close out positions on the breakout & new traders add long positions, explosive moves tend to follow

These are the mechanics behind what some traders refer to as a "Wave 3"

To me it's just mechanics of a successful breakout, but "Wave 3" if it helps understanding...
Read 25 tweets
#USDJPY: Next big trade or just a puzzle?
▪️ In 21st century, USDJPY spiked up >2% when S&P dropped >2% in a wk only on 9 occasions - last wk was one of them - prob of such occurrence <1%
▪️ Last wk $JPY 114.82=>117.29, S&P -2.9%
▪️ Dethrone Long JPY as macro risk-off hedge?
1/9 ImageImage
▪️ Recent S&P drawdown -12.5% since 3 Jan'22 on hawkish Fed & Russian invasion but $JPY +1.0% with drawdown of only 1.4%
▪️ Regime change post Covid?
- Since Mar'20, $JPY vs S&P regression reveals significant -ve beta
- Previous Fed hikes (2004-06, 16-18) also showed low beta
2/9 Image
- Post Covid, reduced (3m) correlation b/w USDJPY & S&P (+ve correl => USDJPY ⬆️, S&P ⬆️)

3/9 Image
Read 9 tweets
#FX/#Rates thru 2016/18 episodes of 'Equity Tantrum' on hawkish Fed: Takeaways
▪️ Short USDJPY best FX trade in both periods
▪️ Short AUDJPY even better
▪️ Short EUR/Long DXY bad idea for risk-off
▪️ Gold/Silver good value here
▪️ Long USDEM not rewarding enuf
▪️ Bonds rally 40bp
Dec 2018 Recap:
S&P -11.3% (30 Nov'18 to 3 Jan'19)
2y UST -41bp, 2.78=>2.37
10y UST -43bp, 2.98=>2.55
DXY -1.0%
Oil/WTI +0.30%
BCOM -6.2%
VIX 18=>25 (36 high)
HY OAS +119bp

But Dec'18 episode was late in hiking cycle=>had enough room for a 40bp bond rally. Lets look at 2016

2/7
Jan 2016 Recap:
S&P -10.5% (31 Dec'15 to 11 Feb'16)
2y UST -40bp, 1.05=>0.65
10y UST -61bp, 2.26=>1.65
DXY -3.1%
Oil/WTI -13.5%
BCOM -5.85%
VIX 18=>28 (32 high)
HY OAS +179bp

DXY ⬇️ on higher EUR JPY & CHF
Strong bond rally at start of hiking cycle
2/10 flatter but 5/30 steeper
Read 7 tweets
Forex Live 1/5: FX #options expiries for 14 Apr 10am NY cut
There are some sizable ones layered for #EURUSD closer towards 1.1900 but also near current levels, even for tomorrow, so that might attract price action with key resist seen closer towards 1.1990-00 region at the moment
Forex Live 2/5: That said, the dollar looks vulnerable across the board with 10-year #Treasury yields also sitting on the cusp of a soft bottom closer to 1.60%, so there's that to consider.

Going over to #USDJPY, that has seen the pair fall below 109.00 - where there are some
Forex Live 3/5: modest and chunky expiries seen this week.
Technically speaking, the break below 109.00 also sees the pair likely to push lower to test the 23 March low @ 108.40 so this just adds to the conviction.

All of that ties together with general dollar sentiment and how
Read 5 tweets
Credit Suisse 1/5: Today’s highlights
#EURUSD has surged higher to our recovery target of 1.1950/92 – the 38.2% retracement of the Q1 fall, mid-March highs and 55-day average and our bias remains to look for the rebound to ideally end here.
Credit Suisse 2/5: #USDJPY has broken support from the 23.6% retracement of the Q1 rally at 108.99, which is seen exposing more important support at 108.55/33. Failure to hold this latter area would see a top complete.
Credit Suisse 3/5: #EURGBP not maintains a base above .8643/65 as well as a bullish “reversal week” and we look for a deeper recovery to .8732 initially, then .8851/61.

#GBPUSD above 1.3783 would see a minor base complete to suggest the trend is shifting sideways.
Read 5 tweets
Danske Bank 1/4: Tactical FX Views.
#EURUSD - Has bounced back slightly in line with equities. We remain short, as per our 2021 top trade.

#EURNOK - as a strategic trade we like to sell NOK vs an equal weighted basket of #EUR and USD.
Danske Bank 2/4: #EURSEK - The krona firmly defied last week's substantial dividend payouts, in line with our expectation. Focus shifts to this week's inflation data. We expect #EURSEK to re-establish the 10.10-10.20 range for now.
Danske Bank 3/4: #EURGBP: We would like to go short $EURGBP again if increases continue. Keep an eye on Northern Ireland riots and Scottish Parliament election on 6 May

#USDJPY - spot starting to be priced as it was pre-corona as US yields and oil now move spot.
Read 4 tweets
ING Bank 1/4: #USDJPY: What seems a clear run higher for US Treasury yields warns of $USDJPY retesting 111 this week. Failure in the 110.20/50 area would be a surprise. The highlight of the week will be PM Suga’s visit to Washington – the first leader hosted by President Biden.
ING Bank 2/4: Presumably the pandemic will top the list of discussion topics, though China will be keenly listening for any remarks on Taiwan. The visit comes at a time when #USDJPY is far from any sensitive levels, although Japanese exporters will clearly be a lot happier
ING Bank 3/4: than their counterparts in the US. And it would seem a little incongruous for President Biden to try and talk #USDJPY lower.
Read 4 tweets
Credit Suisse 1/5: Today’s #Forex highlights
#EURGBP not only maintains a base above .8643/65 but the close above .8574 on Friday has also seen a bullish “reversal week” established to reinforce the likelihood for a deeper recovery to .8732 initially, then .8851/61.
Credit Suisse 2/5: #GBPUSD maintains a bearish “reversal day” to keep the risk lower in its range with supp seen at 1.3641, then 1.3514.

#EURCHF continues to weigh heavily on the bottom of its recent range at 1.1004/1.0994, below which would confirm a top & a correction lower.
Credit Suisse 3/5: #EURUSD continues to struggle to clear its 200-day average at 1.1896 and the current strength stays seen as a temporary and corrective move higher.
Read 5 tweets
KBC Bank 1/4: The big reflation trade took a moment to catch its breath yesterday. Circumstances were ideal with no important data scheduled to trigger abrupt market moves. Equities finished broadly unchanged after erasing earlier losses, both in the EMU and the US.
KBC Bank 2/4: Core bond yields traded choppy and below recent (recovery) highs. The US kicked off its bond sales with 3yr tenor. The auction went smoothly but didn’t impact markets. US Treasuries edged higher at the long end of the curve, sending rates marginally lower driven by
KBC 3/4: the real yield component. German yields ended a volatile trading day flat. Peripheral yield spreads widened just 1 bps. #USD traded on the back foot even as risk sentiment was fragile. #EURUSD took out intermediate resist around 1.208 to finish session north of 1.21again
Read 4 tweets

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