Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #VANRE

Most recents (24)

PM @JustinTrudeau's proposed changes to Canadian Human Rights Act will effectively end free expression in Canada.

The Orwellian bill defines “hate speech” as communication that expresses *detestation or vilification* identifiable groups.

Why is this scary? Read on.

#cdnpoli
@JustinTrudeau @scoopercooper revealed that Chinese Communist Party agents soaked up Canada's PPE supply and sent it to China at the beginning of the pandemic. A group working out of Minister @JoyceMurray's office launched a campaign to silence Cooper claiming Cooper vilified Chinese Canadians.
@JustinTrudeau @scoopercooper @JoyceMurray Had Trudeau's new censorship plans been in place, @scoopercooper could've been charged under the Human Rights Act for reporting the truth.
Read 13 tweets
How do you distribute 10 homes among 10 people?

Ideal solution: Each person buys one home. There will be no bidding wars, no bubble, no housing crisis. Everybody lives happily ever after.

#vanre #cdnpoli #EngHomeHoarding

(H/T @TorMrktBubble) ImageImageImageImage
"Free market" solution: 5 people each buy one home. Sixth guy, a realtor, buys four. Now you have 4 people trying to outbid each other for the last remaining home. Prices escalate.

#vanre #cdnpoli #EndHomeHoarding
Canadian solution: Global capital sees the "Free market" situation. Turns the last remaining home into a commodity to buy, hodl, and flip to others on the global market.

The 4 locals are left wondering WTF just happened.

#vanre #cdnpoli #EndHomeHoarding
Read 3 tweets
A #vanre thread:

There’s a lot of revisionist history going on since @Dave_Eby made a statement on the study @Ayan604 did on non-anglicized Chinese names in Dunbar.

That study was one of the reasons @RWong1975, @razamirza and others like me got involved w/ @HALT_YVR.

1/
People seem to forget that in 2015 when @Ayan604 published his study, the BC Liberals had deliberately not collected data on where homebuyers were coming from.

This data simply didn’t exist, yet there were already rumblings about what was causing housing unaffordability.

2/
Meanwhile, the Urban Development Institute was welcoming mainland Chinese buyers with open arms. There was a profit to be made and @christyclarkbc’s campaign financing chair Condo King Bob Rennie would not be denied.

3/
Read 13 tweets
Yes it's a weekend, but I still find it very odd that mainstream media has not covered the catastrophic flood in Westbank's Vancouver House luxury tower. Just this Daily Hive post. Big story given Ian Gillespie's hold on City Hall, no? #vanpoli #vanre dailyhive.com/vancouver/vanc…
..Silence, & it's been 2 days. A Niagara of water pouring from the 29th floor down stairwells, into condos, thru elevators. 9 floors flooded, water flowing all the way down into the carpark... This is the developer who stands to be involved in the city's biggest upcoming redevts.
Media outlets afraid of Gillespie's notorious litigiousness can't get their lawyers on the phone on the weekend?
Read 4 tweets
Canada created so much moral hazard, people *cannot* see risk.

Over 1 in 5 mortgages are going to over-leveraged borrowers.

Calling it. OFSI does something before the Fed, because it's reached regulatory risk. This is way worse than the US bubble.

#VanRe #ToRe
Ahhhhh yeah, boyyy. First up to the plate with real estate cooling measures is OSFI.

The banking regulator will resume policy consultation on minimum qualifying uninsured mortgage rates beginning tomorrow.

#VanRe #ToRe
Read 4 tweets
So, regarding Kevin Falcon and his probably run for BC Lib leadership. Falcon was instrumental in creating BC Panda Bonds, joined by HSBC on trip to China to pitch the idea of the yuan-denominated bonds. He left govt in 2013 to join the #VanRe industry as VP of Anthem Capital
At the time, Anthem CEO Eric Carlson said Falcon’s duties were to “assist in raising [money] from institutional and individual investors.” HSBC would go on to be the joint lead underwriter of BC panda bond, along with Bank of China
The BC Lib govt would go on to pitch the province to China (and elsewhere in Asia) as an investment destination on the unusual basis of the strength of its real estate price growth. These slides are from the province's 2016 pitch to Asian investors
Read 6 tweets
Slow, unpredictable, expensive, annoying. @fabulavancouver’s series shows why building ADUs is and will remain a small niche. #vanre
Even if @PlanVancouver streamlines their policy, development remains wildly complex. Asking non-professionals to go through this for one or two units will never, ever generate meaningful change. Image
If the supremely knowledgeable @fabulavancouver trips over all these obstacles, how are thousands of ordinary homeowners supposed to navigate them?
Read 4 tweets
THREAD: On why eliminating the unlimited capital gains exemption on primary residence is common sense right now & what happens when a country decides to go all in, changing a 'place where you live' into a special asset class #ToRE #VanRE
Fundamentals whack: Despite a record shock to aggregate demand, unemployment and plummeting immigration Canadian housing is bananas. As @StephenPunwasi pointed out, this is what happens when you make money free and lock people in their houses.
Socialized losses, privatized gains: for last 20yrs central bank policy has been kicking the can down the road (tech '00, GFC, COVID) which has overly benefited one cohort above all (boomers). Also known as moral hazard. In Canada, this has especially manifested in RE prices.
Read 16 tweets
1/ To all those that care about active transportation & safe routes to/from @VSB39 sites in @CityofVancouver.

In October, @VanDPAC sends a letter to the Trustees on what parents would like the see in the VSB #LRFP as Vales & Vision.

W/ @invancouber help, we send over:
2/ The Trustees @CarmenCho17 @janetrfraser @fishtron @awong39 @estiemgonzalez @reddyforchange @Frasergb @OliverHanson @bard1952 take it and add it to the VSB #LRFP Strategic Vision.

Parents are generally happy with this when the Strategic Vision is announced in November. Yay!
3/ This week, we see the VSB draft #LRFP & parents look for the Strategic Vision...

It's not actually in the plan...

It's an appendix...

OK; that's mighty odd but let's continue...

We do a search for sustainability & find relevance in Table 3 but only actions 4, 6, 8 & 10...
Read 16 tweets
1/ The @VSB39 is working on a Long Range Facilities Plan that uses a "school enrolment" planning methodology. When you dive into it, you realize that this has nothing to do with "Where Kids Live & Will Live." Oddly, "school enrolment" does not even factor catchment waitlists.
2/ @VanDPAC is working with Trustees towards a foundation for a LRFP that incorporates "Where Kids Live & Will Live" as a planning methodology. Summary to: [@awong39 @janetrfraser @estiemgonzalez @reddyforchange @fishtron @bard1952 @CarmenCho17 @OliverHanson @Frasergb] in image.
3/ Also very important to use "Where Kids Live & Will Live" as this is aligned with the value of "Complete Communities" that will underpin @CityofVancouver's Vancouver Plan & is totally the right thing to do if we truly care about Equity, Fairness, Sustainability & Safe Routes.
Read 34 tweets
"Vancouver’s housing cracks are showing.. What we are seeing on Vancouver’s streets is the result of policy-making that chooses supply of market-rate housing without understanding the consequences for vulnerable groups of people" - @Ayan604
theglobeandmail.com/amp/real-estat… #vanpoli #vanre
@Ayan604 .."the City played a role when it rezoned areas of downtown and helped drive those land values up further..The City wasn’t just greedy; they drove it in that direction." ..."Vancouverism, this concept that has been celebrated, is actually failing" #vanpoli
@Ayan604 Also at fault, "an urbanist movement in the past few years that has focused too largely on free market solutions without including vulnerable people in the equation. Downtown Van illustrates how such oversight can go so horribly wrong, leaving all members of community worse off."
Read 5 tweets
Couple of charts from RBC's latest Focus on Canadian Housing report.
Uptick in HPI YoY price growth in all 3 of these major 🇨🇦 markets (though Calgary still declining). #VanRE /1 Image
Active listings climbing, but bigger picture (moving avg) is still lower levels than most of last 13 years. /2 Image
SNLR got lower last month (towards Buyer's market territory). I'm unsure if the "pent-up demand" that came through in July and Aug sales looking good for summer levels will continue, or if we're just back to regular seasonality starting in fall. TBD. /3 Image
Read 4 tweets
What does a truck load of cocaine and Canadian real estate have in common? 🤔

How money launderers pay for it!

Due to capital controls restricting how much people can transfer out of countries, money launderers use a technique to evade warning flags - smurfing.

#VanRe #ToRe
2/ Smurfing is a technique pioneered by drug dealers, where large payments are broken into payments small enough to not trigger a warning.

For example, since anything above $10,000 is flagged in the US, drug dealers will get several people to make payments $9,999 or less.
3/ Now a few people caught this on my weekend laundering thread - if capital controls are US$50k/year, how do you make a $700k down payment on a $2 million home?

You smurf it! Get some friends (or hire people 😉) to send your money to several accounts in 🇨🇦, in different names.
Read 7 tweets
Want to know how money laundering priced you out of a home? 🙋‍♂️

One thing I hear often is launderers aren’t buying enough homes to influence prices. Not true.

It only seems that way if you don’t understand how asset prices are created.

Thread 🧵 👇

#VanRe #ToRe
2/ Prices aren’t just a function of input and output like people learned in Econ 101. It’s often influenced by a marginal buyer.

The marginal buyer is the one paying the most, that actually gets an asset. Competition between marginal buyers is what drives prices higher.
3/ usually a marginal buyer is trying to get the best value for their money, while still buying.

In regular market, two people go back and forth. Self-interest helps contain prices from rising too quickly.
Read 11 tweets
In your area, are there arguments between landlords and tenants? That certainly seems like the case in Canada's most expensive cities.

But in interviews, @_jennamoon and I found out that #COVID19 economic stress has got both sides agreeing on something. thestar.com/news/canada/20…
In interviews with @TorontoStar, landlords and tenants say they have felt unfairly judged and stereotyped.

However, both landlord and tenants have, in this rare moment, also found something they can agree on: The system is broken on both sides. thestar.com/news/canada/20… #COVID19
This is Jason Boyes. He works as an industrial mechanic and was able to buy a home in Kamloops in rural B.C.. But living in Vancouver, the most reasonable rent his family could find for a two-bedroom was $2,295/month. ImageImage
Read 8 tweets
This may be selection bias on our part, but for #vanre we do not see the same Armageddon scenarios as outlined in this piece.

Based on Macdonald Property Management's (macdonaldpm.com) sample of over 2,000+ rental properties that we manage in BC, we see the following:
In contrast, the commercial landscape is much more challenged:
Read 9 tweets
VSB reports to BC Gov so it's "complicated" but wherever you stand on Broadway & Birch being 16 floors or 28 floors, you must advocate for @CityofVancouver to be responsible in ensuring that adequate amenities exist.

Let me try a @j_mcelroy type breakdown for 🏫. #vanpoli #vanre
Let's take the scenario of a young couple living at the future Broadway & Birch with a young child that is about to enter Kindergarten.

The point of this?

To ensure that everyone knows that @CityofVancouver & @VSB39 & @bcedplan need to START planning together & plan better.
L'Ecole Bilinque is just a 10 min walk away. It's a French Immersion School that has 40 Kindergarten spots which are hard to get - kids from any part of Vancouver enter a draw (better term than "lottery") to get them. Consider chances low.
Read 13 tweets
Simon Lord says easy to hide a real estate asset, bury in trusts, shell companies, "if you are clever enough with special purpose vehicles you can reduce the risk significantly" ... BC real estate lawyer is suggesting I think, as homes cost so much, aren't they risk to launder?
However, as this story showed, RCMP were surprised Vancouver narcos sometimes didn't even bother hiding ownership. They were brazen in #vanre And RCMP wasn't investigating it globalnews.ca/news/4658157/f…
BC real estate lawyer is laying the ground work, that it could be difficult for realtors to ID dirty money, as it may have been well hidden before they get to transact it.
Read 3 tweets
Back at the #cullencommission today. Beginning where we left off with banks. Prof. Stephen Schneider says B.C. bank branches have been particularly vulnerable to money laundering related to the illegal pot trade and capital flight from China.
cbc.ca/news/canada/br…
Livestream is here if you want to follow along: cullencommission.ca/webcast-live/
Globe and Mail getting lots of props this morning for their reporting.

Schneider is talking about the Vancouver model, and how drug money was used to fund private mortgages, helping fuel the out-of-control real estate market.
Read 28 tweets
Took look at the math on the already infamous TD Economics prediction saying the GTA market would end the year ⬆️7.8% on prices vs. 2019 (and ⬇️23% on transactions). Report released before April finished so here's look with March results. Saying $880K avg price rest of year. /1 Image
Average price for April turned out to be only $821,392, which was just over the 2019 average of $819,322. But it was a 7.8% drop from Jan-Feb avg, where TD had prices falling only 1.2% for rest of year (but could, in fairness come back up). /2 Image
Here's revised chart on what need to hit for TD prediction to be correct: $884K.
Also, note TD implies total MLS re-sale transactions to be down $12.2 billion in the GTA to $59.7B, a drop of 17%. /3 Image
Read 4 tweets
RBC Economics with another new report out today (they've upped the frequency). Bullets from their summary:
▪️ expect activity to slow to a crawl in most markets across the country in April and as long as social distancing and lock-down measures are in place
/1
▪️ unclear how long home prices will hold up
▪️ expect property values to come under increasing downward pressure the longer restrictions persist and the deeper the recession gets
▪️ Super thin activity also makes the market prone to erratic price moves.〰️
/2
TRREB had predicted 97,000 transactions for 2020. Were tracking well the first 2.5 months. Now they're saying they're going to issue a revised forecast when they get some more info. /3 Image
Read 4 tweets
Update: All @CityofVancouver boards and commissions suspended until further notice. No council-appointed rezoning open houses, advisory meetings or workshops until further notice. #vanpoli #coronavirus
MORE: All Park Board permits for special events cancelled until May 30. No more bookings for memorial services at Mountain View Cemetery hall; burials and internments continue. #vanpoli #coronavirus
MORE: Public access to @CityofVancouver Services Centre, Revenue Services, Engineering Services at Crossroads by appointment only. Videoconferencing and more phone and email services to come. #vanpoli #coronavirus
Read 4 tweets
I think the biggest regret when we look back at this era of city building will be all the knock-on effects of forcing condos onto main streets.
Health and air quality for sure, but mostly forcing new homebuyers to compete for the same real estate as established businesses sucks for both of them
So condos displace locally loved businesses because it's the only place we allow them to be built. The condos are expensive for the same reason. So locals all hate condos and elect anti condo politicians
Read 18 tweets
My unpopular take on Canada’s massive immigration.

Raising immigration targets as much as Canada has, all at once, doesn’t solve the problem people think it does.

It actually compounds existing issues. Here’s a progressive’s rant on high immigration.

<thread> ⤵️

#VanRe #ToRe
An aging population is one of Canada’s biggest issues.

As Canada ages, we have fewer people of prime earning age, more dependents, and a dwindling tax base to support dependents.

Basically, we need more young people to pay our bills. So we import them to cover the loss.
Sure, they’ll create their own dependents, but immigrants tend to have more kids in general. Right?

That was a good assumption for Canada in the 1980s, but not today. Increasingly, immigrants find Canada super expensive - who can afford a bunch of kids?
Read 11 tweets

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