Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #WEO

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IMF Growth Projections: 2022

USA🇺🇸: 3.7%
Germany🇩🇪: 2.1%
France🇫🇷: 2.9%
Italy🇮🇹: 2.3%
Spain🇪🇸: 4.8%
Japan🇯🇵: 3.3%
UK🇬🇧: 3.7%
Canada🇨🇦: 3.9%
China🇨🇳: 4.4%
India🇮🇳: 8.2%
Russia🇷🇺: -8.5%
Brazil🇧🇷: 0.8%
Mexico🇲🇽: 2.0%
KSA🇸🇦: 7.6%
Nigeria🇳🇬: 3.4%
RSA🇿🇦: 1.9%

IMF.org/WEO-apr22
What impact will the war in Ukraine have on the global economy? Read our latest #IMFBlog to find out. bit.ly/3jLipQB #WEO
Most emerging and developing countries are grappling with the economic fallout of the war and the long-term damage to their economies from the pandemic.The divergence that opened up in 2021 with advanced economies is expected to persist. bit.ly/3jLipQB #WEO
Read 3 tweets
A thread on today's crazy high #naturalgas prices, with a few thoughts on long-term implications:
Gas prices have been on a wild ride of late. Several price benchmarks are sky-high. In Europe, the main spot price benchmark (the “TTF”) is a whopping €50/MWh ($17.5/MBtu). That’s never happened before. Various indices tell us Asian spot prices are above $15/MBtu, too. Yikes.
These spot prices are telling us markets are tight. Lots of reasons for this, from factory output rebounding in Asia to aircon use during heat waves to high European carbon prices pushing more gas into the power stack. Storage is low. Supply is gummed up here and there.
Read 15 tweets
The #IMF says the "Great Lockdown" recession will likely be the worst since the Great Depression. Global economy projected to shrink by 3% in 2020. By contrast, in January, the IMF had forecast a global GDP expansion of 3.3% for this year. Details in chart below. Table: @IMFNews
IMF: Partial global rebound to 5.8% in 2021 “assumes the #pandemic fades in the 2nd half of 2020, & that policy actions taken by countries are effective in preventing widespread firm bankruptcies, extended job losses, & system-wide financial strains.” #WEO ow.ly/ZLYi50zccSJ
How does your country fare in the latest #IMF projections for 2020 & 2021? imf.org/~/media/Files/… @IMFNews #economies #GDP #finance
Read 21 tweets
The @IMFNews Spring #WEO is out and will need to be read carefully. It is a welcome and perilous exercise, in the middle of the pandemics
imf.org/en/Publication…

From a quick look, here are the main takeaways
1.
The numbers are large (far worse than in 2008-9) but not huge, except for my own country, Italy.
The #IMF believes (hopes?) in a V shaped crisis, with rebounds in 2021.
In advanced economies there will be a permanent loss of GDP, more than compensated by emerging economies
2. Image
Their faith in the V shaped recovery comes from a positive appreciation of the policy mix put in place.
Monetary+Fiscal support is what should be. It is aimed at keeping both potential output and incomes/purchasing power as healthy as possible

I agree with this assessment.

3.
Read 6 tweets
Solar PV stirs strong opinions in many, including on #WEO19. A thread.

Myth 1: #WEO forecasts flat solar additions.
-False. Depending on the scenario, annual PV additions in #WEO19 grow by 110% (STEPS) or 210% (SDS)
Myth 2: #WEO underestimates renewables growth.
-False. Additions of renewables lead all sources in all scenarios. Track back and China’s policy changes accelerated global growth. Unfortunately, in the rest of the world, renewables are behind (!) the STEPS equivalent from WEO2009
Myth 3: #WEO uses outdated costs and holds them constant.
-False. #WEO19 incorporates the latest historical data on renewable energy costs collected and published by @IRENA. Endogenous learning for solar PV is at 20% per doubling of cumulative capacity.
Read 5 tweets

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