Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #WEO

Most recents (10)

Have you seen this @EPA @ENERGYSTAR announcement?… Image
EPA is proposing to eliminate the ENERGY STAR label for one-way air central air conditioners and furnaces:
▶️signaling that #heatpumps are THE efficient choice
▶️shifting utility incentives
▶️changing the market
#heatpumps are necessary for building decarbonization, meeting US net-zero commitments, and halting climate change (from IEA's #WEO World Energy Outlook 2022). Image
Read 7 tweets
/1 Latest @UniLUT research shows that #100RE in global power sector in 2030s is the least cost case:…. Comparison to #WEO scenarios of #IEA and @SvenTeske /DLR scenarios. Modelling in 1-h temporal and 9 global regions resolution. Image
/2 The @UniLUT scenarios reveal that #100RE anytime in 2030s is a least cost solution. Solar PV-battery is the inner core of least cost supported by wind power and other renewables. Sector coupling was not investigated but would further reduce system cost. Image
/3 Comparison to @SvenTeske /DLR reveals an interesting societal choice: low-cost with PV-wind-battery in the core vs higher resource/technology diversity for higher cost (+10-20%). Finally, different paths lead to #100RE and societies have the choice what feature to rate higher.
Read 6 tweets

My customary deep dive on @IEA #WEO22

⏩Energy transition "turbo charged" by Russia's war
⛰️Fossil fuels to peak by 2027
❤️‍🔥Peak gas: "Golden age of gas" is over
🌄Solar outlook +20% vs last yr; wind +15%
🌡️Warming 2.5C (1.7C if pledges met)

1/… Image
The world is finally set to decouple GDP from fossil fuel use & CO2 emissions, after more than a century

The fossil fuel outlook has been transformed since Paris (grey-blue wedges in the chart)

Even since last yr the shift is dramatic (thanks Vlad)

2/… Image
The global energy crisis is having major impacts that will reverberate for decades, the IEA says

And it's clear that high fossil fuel prices triggered by Russia's war are the reason

European TTF MA gas price in Sep22 was 24x (!) higher than in Sep20

3/… Image
Read 24 tweets
European Union imports of Russian natural gas in 2022 will be down to around 60 bcm. The last time they were so low was in 1984. Here are some insights on where we go from here, using our latest @IEA #WEO2022 projections
What happens next with Russian gas is obviously uncertain, but as @tim_gould_ said at the WEO launch yesterday, we assume that there’s no way back for the EU-Russia gas relationship. That relationship was built up over many decades on the basis of trust. And that trust has gone.
In STEPS, we project a continued reduction in the EU's reliance on Russian gas. By 2030, imports are 90% lower. In APS, they are 0 before 2030. This is not easy; to avoid destructive demand reductions or price volatility, a huge scale up in clean energy (and LNG imports) needed
Read 10 tweets
IMF Growth Forecast: 2023

USA🇺🇸: 1%
Germany🇩🇪: -0.3%
France🇫🇷: 0.7%
Italy🇮🇹: -0.2%
Spain🇪🇸: 1.2%
Japan🇯🇵: 1.6%
UK🇬🇧: 0.3%
Canada🇨🇦: 1.5%
China🇨🇳: 4.4%
India🇮🇳: 6.1%
Russia🇷🇺: -2.3%
Brazil🇧🇷: 1%
Mexico🇲🇽: 1.2%
KSA🇸🇦: 3.7%
Nigeria🇳🇬: 3%
RSA🇿🇦: 1.1% #WEO Image
IMF Chief Economist @pogourinchas: The world’s three largest economies—US, China, and the euro area—will continue to stall. The worst is yet to come and for many people, 2023 will feel like a recession. #WEO Image
Global inflation is proving to be broader and more persistent than we anticipated. We expect it to peak at 9.5% this year before slowing to 4.1% by 2024. Image
Read 3 tweets
IMF Growth Projections: 2022

USA🇺🇸: 3.7%
Germany🇩🇪: 2.1%
France🇫🇷: 2.9%
Italy🇮🇹: 2.3%
Spain🇪🇸: 4.8%
Japan🇯🇵: 3.3%
UK🇬🇧: 3.7%
Canada🇨🇦: 3.9%
China🇨🇳: 4.4%
India🇮🇳: 8.2%
Russia🇷🇺: -8.5%
Brazil🇧🇷: 0.8%
Mexico🇲🇽: 2.0%
KSA🇸🇦: 7.6%
Nigeria🇳🇬: 3.4%
RSA🇿🇦: 1.9%
What impact will the war in Ukraine have on the global economy? Read our latest #IMFBlog to find out. #WEO
Most emerging and developing countries are grappling with the economic fallout of the war and the long-term damage to their economies from the pandemic.The divergence that opened up in 2021 with advanced economies is expected to persist. #WEO
Read 3 tweets
A thread on today's crazy high #naturalgas prices, with a few thoughts on long-term implications:
Gas prices have been on a wild ride of late. Several price benchmarks are sky-high. In Europe, the main spot price benchmark (the “TTF”) is a whopping €50/MWh ($17.5/MBtu). That’s never happened before. Various indices tell us Asian spot prices are above $15/MBtu, too. Yikes.
These spot prices are telling us markets are tight. Lots of reasons for this, from factory output rebounding in Asia to aircon use during heat waves to high European carbon prices pushing more gas into the power stack. Storage is low. Supply is gummed up here and there.
Read 15 tweets
The #IMF says the "Great Lockdown" recession will likely be the worst since the Great Depression. Global economy projected to shrink by 3% in 2020. By contrast, in January, the IMF had forecast a global GDP expansion of 3.3% for this year. Details in chart below. Table: @IMFNews
IMF: Partial global rebound to 5.8% in 2021 “assumes the #pandemic fades in the 2nd half of 2020, & that policy actions taken by countries are effective in preventing widespread firm bankruptcies, extended job losses, & system-wide financial strains.” #WEO
How does your country fare in the latest #IMF projections for 2020 & 2021?… @IMFNews #economies #GDP #finance
Read 21 tweets
The @IMFNews Spring #WEO is out and will need to be read carefully. It is a welcome and perilous exercise, in the middle of the pandemics…

From a quick look, here are the main takeaways
The numbers are large (far worse than in 2008-9) but not huge, except for my own country, Italy.
The #IMF believes (hopes?) in a V shaped crisis, with rebounds in 2021.
In advanced economies there will be a permanent loss of GDP, more than compensated by emerging economies
2. Image
Their faith in the V shaped recovery comes from a positive appreciation of the policy mix put in place.
Monetary+Fiscal support is what should be. It is aimed at keeping both potential output and incomes/purchasing power as healthy as possible

I agree with this assessment.

Read 6 tweets
Solar PV stirs strong opinions in many, including on #WEO19. A thread.

Myth 1: #WEO forecasts flat solar additions.
-False. Depending on the scenario, annual PV additions in #WEO19 grow by 110% (STEPS) or 210% (SDS)
Myth 2: #WEO underestimates renewables growth.
-False. Additions of renewables lead all sources in all scenarios. Track back and China’s policy changes accelerated global growth. Unfortunately, in the rest of the world, renewables are behind (!) the STEPS equivalent from WEO2009
Myth 3: #WEO uses outdated costs and holds them constant.
-False. #WEO19 incorporates the latest historical data on renewable energy costs collected and published by @IRENA. Endogenous learning for solar PV is at 20% per doubling of cumulative capacity.
Read 5 tweets

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