Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #WagnerGroup
Most recents (24)
How to Deal with #Prigozhin?
During a meeting with representatives of the security bloc, #Putin listened to the reports and learned that Prigozhin refused to carry out his order and announced it publicly.
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During a meeting with representatives of the security bloc, #Putin listened to the reports and learned that Prigozhin refused to carry out his order and announced it publicly.
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Security Council Secretary Nikolay #Patrushev said after the report to the president that such behaviour by #Prigozhin was causing confusion in the minds of some #Russian elites. The example of the defiant and popularly supported Prigozhin openly going against...
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the president's decisions is causing many actors in the system to question the strength of the system's core. #Patrushev told the president that #Putin's methods of influencing #Prigozhin were ineffective and it was worth moving on to tougher decisions.
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#Wagner Group financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin is continuing efforts to exacerbate the divide between the #WagnerGroup and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD). 🧵⬇️
isw.pub/UkrWar060523
isw.pub/UkrWar060523
2/ #Prigozhin’s press service published a video on June 4 showing a #Wagner fighter interrogating a Russian soldier who identified himself as Lieutenant Colonel Roman Venevitin of the 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (3rd Army Corps).
3/ Venevitin admitted on camera that he ordered his unit to fire on a #Wagner vehicle while intoxicated due to his own “personal animosity” towards Wagner and appeared to have sustained facial injuries during the time of his capture by Wagner.
#Donetsk Axis: #Bakhmut
Regular #Russian forces have likely largely relieved #WagnerGroup forces in Bakhmut amid a low offensive tempo in the area as of June 3.
#Prigozhin claimed on June 2 that 99 percent of his #Wagner units have left Bakhmut. isw.pub/UkrWar060323
Regular #Russian forces have likely largely relieved #WagnerGroup forces in Bakhmut amid a low offensive tempo in the area as of June 3.
#Prigozhin claimed on June 2 that 99 percent of his #Wagner units have left Bakhmut. isw.pub/UkrWar060323
2/ The UK Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported that degraded Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) elements, including those of the 76th VDV Division, 106th VDV Division, and two unspecified brigades have deployed to the #Bakhmut area and are increasing their role in the area.
3/ A #Russian milblogger claimed that Russian and #Ukrainian forces are conducting positional engagements on the northern and southern flanks of #Bakhmut.
#Prigozhin also seized on general Russian discontent with security on the #Belgorod Oblast border to threaten that #WagnerGroup forces may operate in Russian territory without approval from the Russian military command. 🧵
isw.pub/UkrWar060323
isw.pub/UkrWar060323
2/ #Prigozhin claimed that #Wagner will not wait for an invitation or permission from the MoD to defend #Belgorod Oblast if the MoD does not curb security threats to the region.
3/ #Prigozhin justified his threat of insubordination by claiming that #Wagner aims to protect the Russian people, implying that Wagner will assume the role of border defender that the MoD should already occupy.
Russian Mobilization & Force Generation Updates:
1/ Russian officials are establishing domestic veteran support programs, which likely aim to advertise the perks of military service in #Russia.
isw.pub/UkrWar053023
1/ Russian officials are establishing domestic veteran support programs, which likely aim to advertise the perks of military service in #Russia.
isw.pub/UkrWar053023
2/ The Russian MoD is reportedly continuing to recruit prisoners from regional penitentiaries. An independent RU outlet reported that Russian Penitentiary Service employees opened recruitment points in prisons and are recruiting prisoners who committed less serious crimes.
3/ The #WagnerGroup continues to weaponize social media to facilitate global recruitment campaigns. @POLITICOEurope, citing UK disinformation research group Logically, reported that #Wagner is using Twitter and Facebook to recruit personnel.
#WagnerGroup financier #Prigozhin claimed that the Russian relief in-place operation in #Bakhmut may continue past his initial June 1 deadline & last until June 5. The tempo of Russian operations around Bakhmut remains notably low. isw.pub/UkrWar052823
Other toplines: 🧵⬇️
Other toplines: 🧵⬇️
2/ #Prigozhin appears to have again indirectly undermined Russian President Vladimir #Putin’s authority and regime. Prigozhin may be attacking Putin for failing to give Prigozhin some promised reward for seizing #Bakhmut.
3/ The #WagnerGroup held a reportedly illegal pro-#Wagner rally in #Yekaterinburg, #Russia on May 28 despite the reported banning of the rally by Yekaterinburg authorities.
The Russian military command may be transferring #Donetsk People’s Republic’s (DNR) forces to relieve #WagnerGroup forces in #Bakhmut city, which may decrease the tempo of Russian offensive operations on the #Avdiivka-Donetsk City line. isw.pub/UkrWar052723
2/ ISW previously assessed that the Russian military command has heavily committed a variety of DNR elements to the Avdiivka-Donetsk City frontline. Russian attacks around Avdiivka-Donetsk City area appear to have been decreasing in recent days, which may be connected to the… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
3/ The Russian offensives around #Avdiivka have been steadily decreasing since at least April 8 after the RU military command attempted to intensify offensive operations near the settlement in mid-March.
Ukrainian Spy Boss Bluntly Admits Plan to Assassinate Putin
By Allison Quinn casbt1osint.blogspot.com2 min
May 24, 2023
View Original
Sputnik/Alexey Filippov/Pool via Reuters
Sputnik/Alexey Filippov/Pool via Reuters
By Allison Quinn casbt1osint.blogspot.com2 min
May 24, 2023
View Original
Sputnik/Alexey Filippov/Pool via Reuters
Sputnik/Alexey Filippov/Pool via Reuters
The second in command of Ukrainian military intelligence says Kyiv’s spies are actively trying to kill Vladimir Putin—and the Russian leader is well aware of it.
Vadym Skibitsky, the deputy head of Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate, made the admission in an interview with German publication Welt.
The seizure of #Bakhmut was originally intended to facilitate Russian offensives to encircle large Ukrainian forces in the east and specifically to take the large and fortified city of Slovyansk from multiple directions. isw.pub/Bakhmut052423
Key takeaways (and maps)🧵⬇️
Key takeaways (and maps)🧵⬇️
2/ Russian offensive operations in Severodonetsk and Lysychansk proved extremely costly and slow, forcing the Russian military command to deprioritize the wide encirclement in #Donetsk Oblast in order to complete the seizure of those two cities. isw.pub/Bakhmut052423
#WagnerGroup financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin claimed that #Wagner forces will withdraw from the entire frontline in #Ukraine after June 1 in order to reconstitute and train for about two months. isw.pub/UkrWar052223
2/ Prigozhin claimed on May 21 – one day after he declared victory in Bakhmut City – that Wagner forces will give Russian conventional forces control of Bakhmut on May 25 and completely withdraw from the entire frontline by June 1 to rest and reconstitute over a two-month period.
3/ #Prigozhin also claimed that any reports of Wagner assault operations during that two-month period are fake unless he says otherwise.
#WagnerGroup PMC is still active in #Mali.
Wagner's operation in UA may have distracted the reporting, but the story continues, with it the expansion, possible atrocities, the hunt for minerals and the looting... funding the war in Ukraine
An update: #OISNT thread
Wagner's operation in UA may have distracted the reporting, but the story continues, with it the expansion, possible atrocities, the hunt for minerals and the looting... funding the war in Ukraine
An update: #OISNT thread
In mid-September 2022, 14 civilians of the Tuareg, a Berber ethnic minority, are allegedly killed by Wagner soldiers. Some 6km from a place called Nani, central Mali. Wagner was building a presence there, for months. Bodies are being shoved into a crater..
...the crater was created earlier when a soldier allegedly ran over it with his motorcycle, which then exploded. As a response, civilians were killed and stuffed in this crater...
The violent & disgraceful behavior by Wagner mirrors to details of the massacre analyzed by the UN
The violent & disgraceful behavior by Wagner mirrors to details of the massacre analyzed by the UN
🧵ISW previously forecasted that #WagnerGroup's offensive operations in #Bakhmut would likely culminate after months of attritional urban combat, and it is unlikely that #Wagner will continue fighting beyond Bakhmut in its current depleted state. (1/9) isw.pub/UkrWar052123
#Ukrainian military officials reported that Ukrainian forces control an “insignificant” part of southwestern #Bakhmut City around the T0504 highway — a tacit acknowledgment that #Russian forces have secured the rest of western and northwestern Bakhmut if not all of it.
2/ These officials’ statements indicate that Ukrainian forces withdrew from the remaining areas in #Bakhmut except those adjacent to the two highways into the city. isw.pub/UkrWar052123
3/ Geolocated footage published on May 21 showed #WagnerGroup forces raising #Russian and #Wagner flags over a residential building in westernmost #Bakhmut.
🧵 #Wagner forces are unlikely to successfully conduct a controlled withdrawal from #Bakhmut while in contact with Ukrainian forces within five days without disrupting the Russian MoD’s efforts to prepare for planned Ukrainian counteroffensives. (1/7) isw.pub/UkrWar052023
2/ #Wagner forces are unlikely to establish adequate defenses or consolidate recent gains in #Bakhmut sufficient to forestall Ukrainian counterattacks by May 25 even if #Prigozhin’s announcement of Wagner’s withdrawal is true.
3/ Ukrainian forces are still engaging Russian forces in and near #Bakhmut, and Ukrainian artillery can still target Russian forces in and around Bakhmut.
#Prigozhin claimed that #WagnerGroup forces completely captured #Bakhmut City on May 20, seizing the last multi-story apartment building in SW Bakhmut near the MiG-17 monument. ISW hasn't observed geolocated footage confirming Prigozhin’s claims as of today's publication. (1/6)
2/ #Prigozhin announced that #Wagner forces will establish defensive positions before transferring responsibility for the city to Russian conventional forces on May 25. isw.pub/UkrWar052023
3/ #Prigozhin effectively stated that #Wagner forces will conduct an operational pause by resting and restoring combat power at field training camps in unspecified areas, presumably far from the frontline.
Aha, wenn das stimmt, dann #Slava_Ukraini !!!
Berichten zufolge ziehen die #WagnerGroup -Söldner ihre erfahrensten Mitglieder aus der #Ukraine ab und schickt sie in den #Sudan, während die verbleibenden "unnötigen Kämpfer" in #Bakhmut sterben sollen. Möglicherweise wird sie… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Berichten zufolge ziehen die #WagnerGroup -Söldner ihre erfahrensten Mitglieder aus der #Ukraine ab und schickt sie in den #Sudan, während die verbleibenden "unnötigen Kämpfer" in #Bakhmut sterben sollen. Möglicherweise wird sie… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
#WagnerGroup financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin and #Wagner sources have long indicated Wagner’s intent to encircle #Bakhmut and trap Ukrainian forces but proved unable to do so after the Ukrainian military command decided to defend the city. 🧵
isw.pub/UkrWar051823
isw.pub/UkrWar051823
2/ #WagnerGroup financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin admitted on May 18 that #Wagner mercenaries are unable to encircle the Ukrainian forces in #Bakhmut due to the loss of stable flanks north and south of the city. isw.pub/UkrWar051823
3/ #Prigozhin accused the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) of losing advantageous positions after MoD-subordinated units retreated from their positions on #Bakhmut’s flanks necessary for an encirclement.
The limited nature of #Wagner’s ongoing offensive operations in #Bakhmut compared to the localized Ukrainian counterattacks underscores the loss of Russian initiative in the area. 🧵
isw.pub/UkrWar051823
isw.pub/UkrWar051823
2/ ISW recently assessed that the Russian military command is reallocating military assets to the #Bakhmut area in order to augment #Wagner’s offensive capabilities and to gain a tactical victory ahead of a Ukrainian counteroffensive.
3/ UKR Eastern Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated on May 18 that UKR forces regained the battlefield initiative & are forcing RU forces to respond to UKR actions, including by transferring Russian Airborne elements to Bakhmut’s flanks in response to UKR advances.
Geolocated footage posted on May 17 shows that #Wagner Group forces made incremental advances in southwestern #Bakhmut. (1/4) isw.pub/UkrWar051723
2/ A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces conducted a failed ground attack west of #Bakhmut near Ivanivske (6km west of Bakhmut) but advanced northwest of Bakhmut near the Bakhmut-Khromove highway, Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest), and Mynkivka (13km northwest).
3/ Another milblogger claimed that Wagner forces completed the capture of a Ukrainian fortified area in western #Bakhmut and began pressuring Ukrainian forces in an adjacent contested area.
Russian forces have made marginal gains within #Bakhmut as of May 16.
Geolocated footage published on May 15 indicates that Russian forces likely made marginal gains in southwestern Bakhmut along the road that leads to Khromove (just west of Bakhmut). isw.pub/UkrWar051623
Geolocated footage published on May 15 indicates that Russian forces likely made marginal gains in southwestern Bakhmut along the road that leads to Khromove (just west of Bakhmut). isw.pub/UkrWar051623
2/ #WagnerGroup financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin claimed on May 15 that Wagner fighters advanced 220m in #Bakhmut and that Ukrainian forces currently control 1.59 square kilometers of the city.
The reported Russian reinforcements to the #Bakhmut area suggest that #Russia continues to concentrate offensive capabilities there despite an assessed wider effort to reprioritize operations to prepare for potential Ukrainian counteroffensives. 🧵(1/7) isw.pub/UkrWar051623
2/ Russian forces have also recently transferred elements of the 6th Guards Motorized Rifle Division (20th Guards Combined Arms Army, Western Military District) to an unspecified area north of #Bakhmut, likely from positions along the Svatove-Kupyansk line.
3/ The movement of Russian forces from other sectors of the front to the #Bakhmut area is likely a response to persisting Russian concerns about the stability of frontlines in the area amid #WagnerGroup’s continued degradation in the offensive to capture #Bakhmut.
Russian forces continued ground assaults in #Bakhmut and its outskirts on May 15, while Ukrainian forces are continuing defensive operations in the Bakhmut direction. isw.pub/UkrWar051523
2/ The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations within 9km northwest of #Bakhmut in the direction of Hryhorivka and Bohdanivka; within 14km southwest of Bakhmut in the direction of Ivanivske and Predtechyne; and in Bakhmut.
3/ Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated that Russian and Ukrainian forces engaged in 30 combat clashes in the #Bakhmut direction and that Russian forces shelled Ukrainian positions over 300 times.
Ukrainian forces continued counterattacking around #Bakhmut on May 14. Russian forces have not made additional confirmed gains in or around the city as of May 14. isw.pub/UkrWar051423
2/ Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported that Ukrainian forces captured over 10 Russian positions on the northern and southern outskirts of Bakhmut over the course of the day on May 14.
3/ Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian troops attacked towards Berkhivka, Klishchiivka, and Kurdiumivka and took up new unspecified positions near the settlements and additionally advanced towards Yahidne from the direction of Bohdanivka.
The deployment of low-quality #Russian forces on the flanks around #Bakhmut suggests that the Russian Ministry of Defense has largely abandoned the aim of encircling a significant number of #Ukrainian forces there. 🧵(1/8) isw.pub/UkrWar051123
2/ The Russian MoD likely began a broader deprioritization of the #Bakhmut effort by January 2023 when the MoD cut off #WagnerGroup penal recruitment efforts...
3/ ... which likely prompted #Prigozhin to ramp up the Soledar-Bakhmut effort in January and publicly complain about the lack of MoD support for his efforts starting in February 2023.
