Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #WellsRiley
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Updated preprint on COVID risk modeled from respiratory aerosol data
Notice ⬇️:
- No "safe" distance indoors, b/c aerosols travel
- Masks & ventilation increase safe time, but still risk
Graphs: below each line = safer
HT @linseymarr & @kprather88 (1/x)
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Notice ⬇️:
- No "safe" distance indoors, b/c aerosols travel
- Masks & ventilation increase safe time, but still risk
Graphs: below each line = safer
HT @linseymarr & @kprather88 (1/x)
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
2/ Study used the #WellsRiley model to estimate COVID risk from respiratory aerosols in a variety of scenarios, using particle size distribution data from previous studies.
Quanta: Statistical measure of avg infection probability; bigger value = easier to infect [~1 - e^-quanta]
Quanta: Statistical measure of avg infection probability; bigger value = easier to infect [~1 - e^-quanta]
3/ Bazant & Bush study supports broad consensus of observation & preventative steps:
✅No single action sufficient for COVID prevention
✅Steps compound reduction in risk, but never to zero
✅All important: distance, masks, reduced time, incr. ventilation
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
✅No single action sufficient for COVID prevention
✅Steps compound reduction in risk, but never to zero
✅All important: distance, masks, reduced time, incr. ventilation
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
1/ During July 2020 many worked quickly to scramble #COVID19 prep before the Fall classes. I helped model estimated COVID #aerosol risk as @UofDenver made plans. Not allowed then, but shared now in case it can prompt discussion for Winter prep.
Doc + 🧵:
bit.ly/3gVfMcu
Doc + 🧵:
bit.ly/3gVfMcu
2/ A key concern at the time (& still) was #music ensemble classroom activities, b/c it was obvious early on that #COVIDisAirborne and that #choir & wind instruments were likely to present high COVID #aerosol risk.
nfhs.org/articles/unpre…
nfhs.org/articles/unpre…
1/x With #COVID19 cases skyrocketing all over the US, holiday meals are going to be very dangerous. To show the risks of meeting indoors I used an #aerosol box model to estimate relative the risks.
Maybe this can help you re-think your plans to gather.
drive.google.com/file/d/1xmN0e4…
Maybe this can help you re-think your plans to gather.
drive.google.com/file/d/1xmN0e4…
2/x The #WellsRiley model has been used for decades, was put online recently by @jljcolorado & others as a #COVID19 viral aerosol transmission tool. In July I re-wrote the model onto a different platform @Wavemetrics #IgorPro so I could manipulate faster.
tinyurl.com/covid-estimator
tinyurl.com/covid-estimator
3/x Modeled only room-mixed #aerosol (not droplet spray or aerosol plume; these add risk).
Results highlights:
- No matter the room size, infection for 10 people is at least 40% or much more
- If #superspreader there, everyone will be infected
- Outside, risk drops dramatically
Results highlights:
- No matter the room size, infection for 10 people is at least 40% or much more
- If #superspreader there, everyone will be infected
- Outside, risk drops dramatically
