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Dan Norris has won #WestOfEnglandMayor for #Labour making it one of the few LAB gains in #LocalElections2021.

In doing so, he also wrecked my forecast (see the Conservatives would just hold on!

So what went wrong?


@adam_ldr @StephenSumner15

... blog makes it clear that my forecast was in fact the minimum CON needed to do to win & was based on a number of assumptions.

The final vote tally saw LAB with 40k votes ahead of CON & crunching the numbers breaks the reason for this into 4 parts.

First an aside.

When analysing elections using Supplementary Vote, it's more correct to look at number of votes rather than vote shares.

That's because there are a number of steps to the final vote totals & errors can multiply along the way.

So the 1st reason for the 40k difference is ...

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