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I don't know if there's a real risk for a Russian offensive, or if the movements are just part of the training pattern leading up to #Zapad21. However, this is one of my pet peeves - it's hard to tell an exercise from preparations for war. #turpo=#säkpol corporalfrisk.com/2016/08/13/exe…
"The only thing differentiating war from maneuvers is the last stage on the last day. The concentration of forces and the logistics is the same for both.” Lt.Col. Ben-Porat, AMAN, on lessons from Soviet repression of the Prague Spring (quoted in Rabinovich’s ‘The Yom Kippur War’)
Kofman has written quite a bit on the recent #Russia.n movements, and is certainly correct to preach caution and ask if it is different this time re water crisis and spring being a good for war. However, there's three issues were I question the reasoning:
