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Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #a50

Most recents (17):
Backed by 70% of voters (#LocalElections2018) our two major parties aim to take UK down to the minor leagues of sub-#G20 growth, supported by NO detailed plans as to the costs, complexities & consequences of such bizarre recklessness. Not just insane, but amazingly short-sighted!
2. Is this a case of who blinks first? Surely I, and fellow well-informed remainers, are not in exclusive possession of key economic facts and trends? Con/Lab MUST have these too? Maybe everyone should check the latest @guardian piece by @williamnhutton!
3. People who think Brexit (in any form!) would be easy, painless or cost-free are very sorely deluded! Maybe the 70% who just voted Con/Lab in #LocalElections2018 should have been asking 'that question' of their wannabe councillors? before parting with their votes? Too late now!
Read 14 tweets
Either @abcpoppins is right about #A50Challenge or we have a profound constitutional crisis, b/c it will be determined that Parliament can be tricked by a sleight of hand into giving the PM power to bypass a legally required process, in effect giving the PM power to break the law
The decision process required by #A50 is simply that which separates democracy from dictatorship. Executive decides on policy within its party political perception of national interest, based on evidence, impact analysis, etc. parliament scrutinizes, then legislates if required.
As the EU ref was advisory (confirmed in Miller), this process is not bypassed. The ref result is simply one of the factors in the decision process, but not the only factor. There is scope on how much weight it is given, but not indefinite scope. It must be Wednesbury reasonable
Read 5 tweets
10 mths on from a rash, premature, totally unplanned #Article50 trigger, we still await clarity as to what #Brexit might mean? But HMG has now confirmed what we knew 19 mths back - Brexit remains totally unaffordable! We've spent a fortune to establish that simple & obvious fact!
Have known from the off that Brexit must be halted: 1.Our negotiating position was weakened by #A50 trigger, not strengthened. 2.Obvious from day 1 that ANY form of Brexit would be totally unaffordable - as we have 5x more debt since 1997 and run a huge visible trade imbalance.
- 3.UK has a dominant services sector (incl financial services) and stands to lose disproportionately MORE than any other of the EU27, from leaving the SM & CU. 4.Our overall productivity also lags the G20 norm, not a good 'go-it-alone' platform!
Read 13 tweets
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1. Worst national leadership in my lifetime forcing through the most damaging, misguided & missold policy I can remember. Ideology & vested self interest replace statesmanship, soundbites replace sound judgement & autocracy subverts democracy.
#Brexit harms us irreparably #FBPE
2. A flawed Leave campaign based on lies, deceit, disingenuity & over simplification & a #Remain one fought w/o any positivity from the Govt & no real commitment from Labour, whose leader was virtually AWOL, did no justice to #Brexit complexity & betrayed our democratic process.
3. A mere 37% of voters/26.5% of the Ppl voted leave in a legally Non-Binding test of public opinion which has been corrupted, on the basis of an illegitimate political promise & interpreted as being the irrefutable Will of the Ppl.
The 1st is insufficient to claim the latter!
Read 39 tweets
So, a quick round-up of the main points to note from this morning's #A50 agreement:

1/
It's only a rpt (from COM and HMG) to #EUCO, so still have to sign off on it next week, so not definitive yet

2/
Even if we assume #EUCO does sign off, the detail isn't locked in until end of #A50 negotiations and ratification, so nothing is legally banked

3/
Read 12 tweets
So the #A50 bus got crashed yesterday, but why?

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Let's start with the obvious culprit in all this: the DUP. Why would they block the new text?

2/
If we assume HMG showed text to DUP beforehand, then only three options:

1) they misunderstood
2) they understood, then changed minds
3) they understood and always planned to block

3/
Read 10 tweets
Among reasons for opposing Brexit is UK's unpreparedness for such a huge change! Unless we stop this now, the purported benefits may be less than pre-sold? and the warned downsides may well be worse? If either or both? our public finances could implode under self-imposed strain.
Consider UK's low productivity relative to our G20 peers - well publicised but poorly understood? Improving 'this' over a sustained period would surely have been preferable pre-requisite prior to anything as profound as Brexit!
Look at UK's ballooning national debt, which has 'more than quadrupled' since John Major left office in 1997. Ask any ordinary Jo if they'd fancy racking up such a huge mortgage? (ours is £2 trillion) before resigning a job to venture into business on their own!
Read 32 tweets
The last criticism of #brexit I heard on the BBC was a item about Welsh hill farming which was criticised in the HoC. They even interviewed a Fascist on Remembrance Sunday last year. The important speech on #A50 by Lord Kerr was totally blanked by the news. 1/n
The audience research unit they use to analyse if they are biased is a company that belongs to Arron Banks. The audience researcher for BBC Question Time was found to be a member of serveral very right wing FaceBook groups - which barely drew an apology when pointed out 2/n
The easily spouted " we get complaints from both sides" - without a shred of evidence that they do - or that those that come from the Right are well-founded - is used to close down any discussion. 3/n
Read 7 tweets
Fixing Brexit-day is a bad idea, for several reasons:

1/
Most importantly, it removes one of the few remaining areas of flexibility in #A50 process. Regardless of preferred outcome, having option to move date might be useful

2/
Most obviously, you might find events suddenly require more time. Maybe you're on edge of an agreement, but time runs out. Or perhaps a ratifying body throws a sml spanner in works

3/
Read 6 tweets
A brief reminder on why the next two months matter in #A50 land

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The Oct #EUCO decided that while there was progress on Phase I of talks, there wasn't sufficient progress

2/
That meant no opening of Phase II talks in #A50, just preparation of a mandate for them, as a bone to show willing/good faith

3/
Read 17 tweets
Since May's fateful appointment & her 'Brexit means Brexit' this has always been OUT v IN. Talk of deals is fantasy. We should vote IN asap!
.@KenClarkeMP apart, Tory MPs voted #A50 trigger (Mar17) to appease #Brexiteers untroubled by unseen cost/impact assessments or exit plans.
7 months down their rocky road to nowheresville, that #A50 trigger is looking like the most ill-judged & stupid parliamentary decision ever!
Read 58 tweets
Another key message from our #NegotBrexit event: no one can quite believe how much of a mess the UK has got itself into

1/
In all member states we're monitoring there was a confusion that HMG had called a referendum it didn't have to, surprise it was lost...

2/
And then disbelief that HMG hasn't been able to pull together a plan for #A50 in time since.

Two big consequences

3/
Read 8 tweets
It's our #NegotBrexit event today, so some early thoughts for you

1/
We've been monitoring most EU member states and institutions on their approach to #brexit and #a50

2/
There's a very high degree of buy-in to COM's approach, leading to a broadly united front

3/
Read 8 tweets
Some thoughts on #EUCO and #Brexit

1/
Zero chance of moving to Phase II, so will be all about optics. Everyone needs to take something home

2/
COM needs to show it's in control: EU27 want to know their dosh/citizens are safe: May needs to not look supine

3/
Read 9 tweets
A short thread on 'no-deal' and what it's a no-deal on

1/
(this comes from some queries on lines of "so no trade deal, but still a deal on other stuff, right?")

2/
At risk of sounding May-ish, 'no-deal' means no-deal, mostly likely on anything.

3/
Read 12 tweets
Another stab at summarising the structure of #A50, with some comments

1.
The key pt from this is that the path to a 'no-deal' is relatively easy

2/
That's because it relies on frustrating the efforts at coordination needed for other outcomes to happen

3/
Read 12 tweets
It's obviously joy of soundbites day today: this is not a viable approach for several reasons

1/
Firstly, #A50 is not structured like most negotiations. Key mechanism is 2yr time-limit

2/
Thus, default position is a no-deal exit. Any deal requires active moves by both EU and UK

3/
Read 8 tweets
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