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Ever since I interviewed Kerry Emanuel at the onset of the 2018 #hurricane season, I've been showing some of the results of his team's downscaling approach that, combined with model simulations, can yield projected return periods for outlier cyclone events.

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At my public outreach and educational presentations, I've shown how a hurricane like Irma at 180 MPH approaching Barbuda, a 1-in-800 year event, could have its return period reduced to 1-in-80 years by the end of this century. Similarly ...

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A hurricane like MarĂ­a at 155 MPH approaching Puerto Rico, a 1-in-200 year event, could have a return period of 1-in-20 years by late this century.

I'm sure some of my followers that have seen my presentations in person recall me showing these slides.

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